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Friday, March 29, 2024
Ah, Opening Day. When promise becomes reality, when conjecture becomes concrete, and when a perfectly healthy Justin Steele becomes something less than perfectly healthy. 
Of course we couldn't get through even one day of the new baseball season without a significant name suffering an injury, and Steele wasn't the only one. He came up limping after fielding a batted ball midway through his start against the Rangers Thursday, and then went down grabbing his left hamstring. He walked off the field and into the Cubs clubhouse, where the team announced his injury as "hamstring tightness." 
Hopefully it doesn't end up being a significant injury, but Steele is set for an MRI and Cubs manager Craig Counsell acknowledged after the game that an IL stint is likely. The same might be true for Royce Lewis, who gave us the whole Royce Lewis experience on Opening Day, crushing a homer in his first trip to the plate and a double in his second, before leaving with a quad injury. Add in a Max Kepler injury after he fouled a ball off his leg, and it wasn't a great day for the Twins despite their 4-1 win. 
Hopefully none of those injuries will prove to be long-term ones. But, we're one day in, and already your lineup might have some additional holes. That's unfortunate, but we're here to help you fill them. 
In our first newsletter of the new season, we're recapping everything you need to know about from Opening Day, including the top waiver targets coming out of Opening Day. Scott White has some Opening Day reactions to read about here, and yes, a resurgent Shane Bieber features prominently. We'll talk more about that, plus the rest of the news and big performances from Thursday's action in the rest of the newsletter. But first, let's take a look at those waiver targets: 
Opening Day Waiver Targets
Garrett Crochet, SP, White Sox (50%) – [Extremely Shaq voice]:  I owe you an apology. I wasn't really familiar with your game. Making his first start in a non-exhibition game since 2020, when he was in college, Crochet was simply stupendous as the White Sox Opening Day starter. We knew the former first-rounder was talented, but he was one of the bigger unknowns in the league given his lack of experience as a starter, and that made his performance arguably the most eye-opening of the day. He limited the Tigers to just one run over six innings, striking out eight with no walks and only five hits allowed. He averaged 97.6 mph with his fastball, up 1.3 mph from last year, when he was working as a reliever, and he showed off a four-pitch arsenal – albeit with the cutter and changeup mostly serving as show-me pitches as the start went on to keep hitters honest. Still, it might be a legitimate starter's repertoire, and the stuff looked pretty impressive. It's just one start, but it was a start that demands to be taken seriously; he should be rostered in all leagues just in case it was for real. 
Jason Foley, RP, Tigers (0%) – The biggest closer news of the day came out of Detroit's bullpen, as Foley got a save instead of presumed closer Alex Lange and looked unhittable. He came in for the final two outs of the ninth to replace  Andrew Chafin and got two strikeouts while averaging 99.3 mph with his sinker, up 2.1 mph from last season. The fact that Chafin got the first out of the inning might explain why the Tigers went to Foley instead of Lange, but if you didn't get many closers in your draft, I think you probably have to speculate on Foley, just in case he's the guy here.    
Maikel Garcia, 3B, Royals (47%) – Garcia was the only player on the Royals to do any damage against Pablo Lopez , and he did it in a hurry, hitting a leadoff homer off the Cy Young contender. Yep, Garcia was hitting leadoff for the Royals, just like we hoped he might be, and that alone makes him worth adding. He showed strong hitting skills last season, ranking in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity with a roughly average strikeout rate, and if he elevates the ball more consistently this season, it's not unreasonable to think he could get to double-digit homers while stealing 30 bases. There's Andres Gimenez upside here, especially at the top of the lineup. 
Frankie Montas, SP, Reds (69%) – Montas was significantly less impressive than Crochet. In fact, despite the line – six shutout innings, four hits, no walks, four strikeouts – I'm not actually sure he was all that impressive. Montas' fastball velocity was up from last season, but down from his 2022 peak, and he picked up just eight swinging strikes on 81 pitches against a pretty underwhelming Nationals lineup. Still, it's a former a must-start pitcher who showed flashes of his former form, and that's enough to justify a speculative add in shallower leagues where available. 
Griffin Jax, RP, Twins (36%) – With Jhoan Duran on the IL with an oblique injury, we weren't quite sure what direction the Twins would opt to go in. But with a hold situation in the eighth, they turned to Brock Stewart, who then handed it off to Jax in the ninth inning. They may opt to flip-flop them the next time around, but Round 1 went to Jax, who should be added anywhere you are speculating on saves. 
Nick Martini, OF, Reds (3%) – It's probably nothing, but we have to talk about an Opening Day two-homer performance. Martini might not have even made the roster if not for the rash of bad luck the Reds suffered in the spring, but instead, he was started at DH in the opener and clubbed a couple of homers off Nationals starter Josiah Gray. Martini is 33 and has almost no MLB track record to speak of, and his decent Triple-A track record (.294/.398/.445) is tempered by the fact that he's been old for the level all along. So, again, it's probably nothing. But, Martini did have decent quality of contact numbers in a small sample size in the majors last season, and will play his home games in arguably the best park in baseball, so he's worth a look in NL-only leagues, at least. 
Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners (25%) – Garver had a terrific spring, hitting five homers in 43 trips to the plate, and he stayed hot in the opener, homering off Brayan Bello . He's back in Seattle, where he enjoyed his best seasons, and he's healthy for the first time in seemingly years. I'm willing to bet on a bounce-back campaign with a few bucks of FAB.
Opening Day Standouts
For more Opening Day standouts, check out Scott White's column here
Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians @OAK – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 11 K: Bieber's fastball velocity was up, as advertised, and the whole arsenal played up, including his splitter, which generated a whopping 10 whiffs on 11 swings. It's just the A's, but Bieber looked as good as he has in years, and that's coming off a spring where there was some excitement starting to build. He sure looked like an ace again. 
Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles vs. LAA – 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K: Burnes made exactly one mistake, surrendering a first-inning homer to the Angels . He was perfect the rest of the way, and importantly, his velocity was up after being down early last season especially. After one start, I'm feeling pretty good about my AL Cy Young pick
Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers @CHW – 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K: Scott and Frank's AL Cy Young pick was as advertised as well, with a simply ludicrous 20 swinging strikes on 83 pitches. His velocity was up 0.8 mph from last year's already heightened mark, and he might just be the best pitcher in baseball. 
Cole Ragans, SP, Royals vs. MIN: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K: Ragans wasn't quite as impressive as some of the other standouts on the mound, but he was pretty dang good. He racked up 19 swinging strikes on 97 pitches, and if he can stay healthy (and keep the walks under control), he's going to be a legitimate difference maker this season. 
Paul Goldschmist, 1B, Cardinals @LAD – 3/4 with a HR: Goldschmidt went to Driveline this offseason to work on his bat speed, and this was a good start after a forgettable spring for the veteran. 
Jake Burger, 3B, Marlins – 3/4 with 3 RBI: Burger is another guy who had a pretty miserable spring, striking out 36% of the time after seeing a big improvement in his K rate after joining the Marlins last season. But he put the ball in play all five times he came to the plate Thursday, with three hard-hit balls – including two over 112 mph. That's what we wanted to see. 
And the not so good … 
Zac Gallen, SP, Diamondbacks vs. COL – 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K: The results were fine for Gallen, and even the underwhelming strikeout number looks a little better when you see that he had 15 swinging strikes. But his velocity was down significantly; 1.8 mph on his four-seam fastball, and more on the rest of his pitches. Coming off a 240-plus inning season (including the playoffs), there's been some questions about how Gallen would respond to that workload, and this is a somewhat ominous start. 
Framber Valdez, SP, Astros vs. NYY – 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 5 K: Valdez's velocity was down 1.3 mph on his sinker, and he was uncharacteristically wild, albeit against a lineup that's probably gonna make a lot of pitchers work this season. 
Zach Eflin, SP, Rays vs. TOR – 5.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K: If we're going to give anyone a mulligan, I think it's worth doing it with a guy making his first start of the season who just seemed to run out of gas in the sixth inning, when five of the six runs came in. It was a bad start, and Eflin didn't seem to have the feel for his sweeper, so that'll be something to watch moving forward. 
Adbert Alzolay, RP, Cubs – If there's one weakness in Alzolay's game, it's that he struggles against lefties, and it was a lefty – soft-hitting outfielder Travis Jankowski of all people – who handed Alzolay his first blown save in as many chances. Given that the Cubs never gave him a public vote of confidence as the closer after signing Hector Neris this offseason, that's a concerning start. 
The Rockies:They gave up a 14-run inning to the Diamondbacks, and this one wasn't at Coors Field. They haven't been eliminated from the playoffs yet, but it kind of feels like they have. 
News and notes
Royce Lewis had an MRI taken on his injured quad, and we're still awaiting the results for that. One name to know just in case the injury costs him some time is prospect Brooks Lee. The Twins former first-round pick played some third base last season and was getting a bit of whispered hype this spring as a roster contender before being sent down. He'd be worth a look as a MI/CI option if he gets the call. 
David Bednar didn't pitch Thursday, and the Pirates broadcast speculated that he may not have been available due to ongoing rehab from his spring lat injury. He didn't go on the IL and made two spring appearances, so hopefully this was just a day-one thing and he'll be fine. But don't drop Aroldis Chapman just yet. 
Nick Senzel broke his thumb fielding a ground ball before Thursday's game. Ildemaro Vargas started at third base, but you probably don't need to know his name. 
Max Scherzer threw a bullpen session Tuesday, his first time throwing off a mound since he underwent surgery to address a herniated disc back in December. The team suggested Scherzer could be ready to rejoin the rotation before the end of May, and he notably did not go on the 60-day IL to open the season. 
Jordan Romano was officially placed on the IL but GM Ross Atkins indicated he's hopeful Romano will require only a minimum stay on the IL.
The Reds transferred Matt McLain to the 60-day IL Thursday after he underwent shoulder surgery earlier in the week. He's probably out until well into the summer. 
Evan Carter batted eighth for the Rangers against a lefty, while Wyatt Langford was hitting fifth. I wouldn't be surprised if Carter were hitting higher against righties, but it's something to watch. 
Nico Hoerner hit seventh for the Cubs after starting every game in one of the top two spots in the lineup last season. That could change, but if it sticks all year, that's probably something like 80 fewer plate appearances than he would otherwise have gotten. 
Jarren Duran hit leadoff for the Red Sox, as expected, with Trevor Story hitting third. Ceddanne Rafaela was in the lineup as center field, batting seventh, while Emmanuel Valdes got the start at second 
Esteury Ruiz didn't start for the A's. He was significantly worse against right-handed pitching last season, so it's not terribly surprising, but he did hit leadoff routinely in the spring, so it's not a great sign to see in their first official lineup. Keep an eye on Lawrence Butler , who started ahead of Ruiz and had 15 homers and 21 steals in 89 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He's a deep sleeper. 
 
 
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