Your Inside Source for Options Information

April 23, 2018

Featured Interview

Making data more accessible 

Options Insider Radio Interviews: Predicting Political Volatility and Bitcoin with Predata

Posted November 6th, 2017

In this episode, Mark is joined by Jim Shinn, Predata's co-founder and CEO.

They discuss:

• Jim's background
• Using big data to predict behavior
• The political VIX: PVIX
• Bitcoin, AI, and the future of fintech
• How do they analyze social media to predict behavior?
• Monitoring metadata from conversations
• How do they work with options traders?
• What is the PVIX predicting?
• Find out more at predata.com

 

Upcoming Economic Reports

A preview of what may move the market this week

 

Options Insider Radio Network 

Episodes you may have missed from Options Insider Radio last week

Advisors Option 66: The Great Listener Question Palooza

Posted April 20th, 2018

Office Hours: It’s all listener questions today

• Comment from Avery - Interesting piece about when to fire your financial advisor on the street today. Your thoughts? https://www.thestreet.com/story/13747897/1/5-justifiable-reasons-why-you-can-and-should-fire-your-financial-advisor.html
• Question from B. Goldberg - I have a large number of SMAs with smaller balances (typically $5,000 - $10,000) from new clients. Most are younger clients willing to try their hands at newer products beyond stocks including options. What are some good options use cases for these types of smaller accounts?
• Question from Leslie Necing - Morningstar has an option-based category for their funds. But it includes everything from volatility funds to overlays so it’s hardly useful for comparison purposes. What categories should they include to provide more meaningful comparisons for people looking for options funds?
• Question from Scott Somer: How would movement to treat capital gains to FIFO for the underlying stocks be good or bad for the options market?
• Comment from Papa Scalp - What’s scary is how many "advisors" don’t have a clue, not even for portfolio protection or insurance.
• Question from FKnight67 - Is there one position or strategy that you feel applies best to the vast majority of financial advisors and asset managers.
• Question from Mark Clyde Brant: Will rising vol persist all year? VIX above 20, VXX above 40, half the time? What is the current version of the Swan process? Someone should back test how often fading the skew, by buying the cheaper options, wins.
• Question from Allan Tullman - There was a lot of research last year regarding selling put options to harvest risk premium. Now that volatility is back is this an ideal time to harvest premium via put selling or does the increased volatility increase the probability of getting whipsawed?
• Question from Nevos - There are a ton of tickers for the Swan DRS. Are they pretty much all the same or is there a primary fund that I should look for?
• Question from Bill T. - Is there a platform you recommend for advisors looking on onboard more options clients?

 

Option Block 709: Tech Wreck, plus Well-Timed VIX Puts

Posted April 20th, 2018

Trading Block: That's right. We are up to 16 exchanges now. MIAX Options and MIAX PEARL options exchanges, today announced that it intends to launch MIAX Emerald as its third fully electronic options exchange in 2019.

Options Flash Poll: The proposed third exchange from MIAX exchange will raise the total number of U.S. Options Exchanges to 16. Is this a good thing for the options market? Is it the straw that finally breaks the camel's back? Or are you too busy getting great fills to care?

• More Exchanges the Better
• Please Make It Stop
• Don't Care: I get filled

Earnings:

• E-Trade - 58.50, ATM straddle ~ 2, approx. 3.5%
• Netflix (from Monday) - 307, ATM straddle ~ 28, approx. 9%

Odd Block: Well-times paper in VIX (VIX). Put love in Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH). Deep ITM calls in NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI). Call spread in Alcoa Corp (AA).

Mail Block: Last week's options question of the week.

SPOT is the latest hot IPO to join the Options market. So many recent Options listings started off hot then suddenly cooled so we have to ask - which hot recent IPO will you be slinging Options on in 2019?

• 38% - SPOT
• 16% - DBX
• 41% - SNAP
• 5% - Other

This week's options question of the week:

VIX is back in the mid-teens. Are you buying this Volatility reprieve or is this merely calm before the storm? Quite simply - Where do you think VIX will end the week?

• Here: 16-18
• Higher: 18-20
• Even Higher: 20-25
• Lower: 14-16

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment from J3dingle -Mark, do you realize this is what almost won your Broker Madness tournament?
• Question from Dhasone Riley -I have a general question because I'm struggling with hedges. Do most people buying calls or put options as hedges, hedge in, at or out the money?

Around the Block: ETrade rallied a bit after earnings, but still a meh. The more exchanges the better? Silver is moving again. Will the market move back above 2700? Sebas is more bullish than Tosaw.

 

Options Playbook Radio 205: GOOGL Skip Strike Butterfly

Posted April 20th, 2018

On this episode we discuss:

• A review of our earnings trade in NFLX
• A complete breakdown of our new earnings skip-strike butterfly in GOOGL.

 

Option Block 708: VIX Is Dead...Long Live VIX

Posted April 17th, 2018

Trading Block: What is happening that might move the markets?

• Calm coming soon? A silent Trump Twitter account helps.
• A calmer backdrop for equities would bring pain to speculators, or more kindly, reduce the value of their hedges.
• Earnings Season Is Set to Crush Volatility Once Again

Earnings:

• Monday - Netflix (after the bell) $307, ATM straddle $28, approx. 9%
• Tuesday - IBM, Johnson & Johnson, United
• Wednesday - American Express, Alcoa, Abbott
• Thursday - E*Trade
• Friday - GE, P&G, Honeywell, Waste Management

Odd Block: More Jan 2019 50 "catastrophe" puts in Tesla Motors (TSLA). Closing roll to puts in Yandex NV (YNDX). Call love in Devon Energy Corp (DVN). Short puts in PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS).

Strategy Block: Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses synthetic trades.

Around the Block/Economic Reports:

• Apr 16 - Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Treasury International
• Apr 17 - Housing Starts, Industrial Production
• Apr 18 - Beige Book
• Apr 19 - Jobless Claims

 

This Week in Futures Options 98: The Madness of Crude Oil

Posted April 16th, 2018

Special Guest Co-Host - Tracy Shuchart, @CHIGIRL

Topics this week include:

• Crude/WTI
• Gold/Metals
• Futures Options Feedback/Volatility Flash Poll

Which product/segment do you think will experience the most Volatility over the coming trading week (through the close on Friday 2/20) SPY SPX VIX WTI Crude Gold Bitcoin BTC GLD USO

• S&P500: SPY, SPX. VIX
• Gold: GLD, Come
• Crude Oil: WTI, USO
• Bitcoin: BTC

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Ken Aidan -I'm a crude swinger mostly trading short-term direction intraday in the futures. Are the options good for this use case or is that more for long term strategies?
• Question from Luke T. - Why does USO suck so badly? Not sure why anyone would trade this over the futures?
• Question from Thomas F. - I used to trade a lot of spy options but I've been lured over to the eMinis. Not sure why more people don't trade these things. What do you think it is that keeps people trading spy instead of eMini and what can be done to bring them to the dark side?
• Question from Mark Brant -I'm partial to selling 45d straddles. Does QS highlight the highest IV% straddles of the CME products? It would be cool to sell the richest straddles daily!...45d straddle decay is the universal sweet spot to avoid gamma risk, but only at IV extremes, and even then one can lose a little. SPAN margin is ideal for CME straddles. I will gladly pay for 45d straddle IV reports. Rich straddles are an edge!
• Question from GWCH: You buying that this cryptocurrency rally is based on the sharia law approval?
• Question from BLIO3T: Which products are the ones that you guys have the hardest time wrapping your heads around? For me it's the hogs. No thanks.
• Comment from Mark Brant:Long beans! Also NOB spread has no quit in it!
• Question from Kennedy: Soros is getting into Crypto. Time to sell?

 

Volatility Views 301: Trade War Vs. Real War

Posted April 16th, 2018

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

• VIX Cash is back in the teens. Could it possibly reach 15 again?
• The market is tanking and rallying on both trade war and real war concerns.
• VVIX - 97
• VIX Options - ADV: 1.05M, VIX call/put: 2.2/1, Total 8.50m (5.85m Calls, 2.66m Puts)
• Paper sells May 20/22 call spread and buy May 17 puts 84,000 times.
• VXX - 47, almost unchanged from last week.
• Bitcoin futures up another 400 today.

Volatility Voicemail: Volatility Flash Poll

• Which product/segment do you think will experience the most Volatility over the coming trading week (through the close on Friday 2/20) SPY SPX VIX WTI Crude Gold Bitcoin BTC GLD USO
• S&P500: SPY, SPX. VIX
• Gold: GLD, Comex
• Crude Oil: WTI, USOF
• Bitcoin: BTC

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Loades - What will it take to get VIX back into the 15 handle?
  Comment from Jack -I'm with the questioner from last week. It's a huge pain to figure out which VIX future the weekly options are trading on. CBOE needs to hold more brokers feet to the fire to surface that stuff much more readily.
• Question from Alfred - Any updates on the VIX whistle blower?
• Comment from Chingis - Dudes, how about a weekly rundown of the hot VIX ETFs and ETNs?
• Question from Elandra -If you could have your ideal volatility product what would it be?
• Question from DKMan - Why no options on TVIX?

Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 17.15
• Mark S. - 17.89
• Russell - 19.99

This week:

• Mark L. - 17.17
• Mark S. - 15.00

 

Where to Find Options Insider Radio?

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Options Insider Radio Network Live Recordings

Do you want to be a part of the fun?

This is when you can access the LIVE shows this week:

Monday:

Option Block LIVE at 3pm Central

Thursday:

Option Block LIVE at 3pm Central

Friday:

Volatility Views LIVE at 12pm Central

This Week in Futures Options LIVE at 1:30 Central. As always, you can join in the fun at http://mixlr.com/options-insider/