Your Inside Source for Options Information

July 3, 2017



Upcoming Economic Reports

A preview of what may move the market this week
 
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, JULY 3
9:45 AM Markit manufacturing PMI June -- 52.1
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index June 55.50% 54.90%
10:00 AM Construction spending May 0.30% -1.40%
Varies Motor vehicle sales June 16.6mln 16.6mln
TUESDAY, JULY 4
  None scheduled, Independence Day      
WEDNESDAY, JULY 5
10:00 AM Factory orders May -0.70% -0.20%
2:00 PM FOMC minutes      
THURSDAY, JULY 6
815 am ADP employment June -- 253,000
8:30 AM Weekly jobless claims 1-Jul 248,000 244,000
8:30 AM Trade deficit May -$46.2bln -$47.6bln
9:45 AM Markit services PMI June -- 53
10:00 AM ISM nonmanufacturing index June 56.50% 56.90%
FRIDAY, JULY 7
8:30 AM Nonfarm payrolls June 174,000 138
8:30 AM Unemployment rate June 4.40% 4.30%
8:30 AM Average hourly earnings June 0.30% 0.20%
 

 

Options Insider Radio Network 

Episodes you may have missed from Options Insider Radio last week

Option Block 632: Managing Your Trades When You're Away

Posted June 30th, 2017

It's all strategy in this abridged episode of the Option Block. Today, Uncle Mike discusses what you can do when you're not connected to your computer, including:

  • Take your mobile device with you
  • Have the phone number for the trading desk
  • Contingent orders and alerts
  • Why not to have a limit order on a contingency
  • Setting alerts

Options Playbook Radio 164: GOOGL Skip-Strike Butterfly

Posted June 29th, 2017

Today Brian covers a skip-strike butterfly, which you can find on page 109 of The Options Playbook. This is always available on OptionsPlaybook.com, in on the Amazon Kindle edition.

Specifically:

  • What are the right circumstances for trading a skip-strike butterfly?
  • A bad news event in GOOGL creates an interesting situation for options traders
  • Where is GOOGL right now?
  • What exactly is a skip-strike butterfly?
  • What's our forecast?
  • Where is the at-the-money straddle?
  • Setting up the trade
  • Picking strikes
  • Picking expiration
  • What's the maximum risk?
  • What will this cost?
  • Butterfly considerations
  • What do we want to happen?

Do you have a question that you want featured on an upcoming episode of Options Playbook Radio? Send Brian an email at: theoptionsguy@invest.ally.com.

 

Option Block 631: Talking VIX, Apple, Bitcoin, Oil and More

Posted June 27th, 2017

Trading Block: Wall St. boosted by tech stocks, rebound in oil prices; Bitcoin Tumbles to Lowest Level in More Than a Week

Odd Block: Put buying in Darden Restaurants (DRI), put spreads trading in iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) and puts trading in Iridium Communications (IRDM)

Mail Block: Options Question of the Week 1

Everyone is talking about #Bitcoin #Volatility these days. Where do you stand on #Bitcoin after last week's aggressive downturn?

  • Too Volatile, I am out
  • I am still bullish
  • I want #Bitcoin #Options
  • I am sick of #Bitcoin

Options Question of the Week 2

Let's get back to basics. #Options are great way to get long (bullish) exposure to stocks & futures. What's your fav way to go long?

  • Long Call/Call Spread
  • Short Put/Put Spread
  • Stock(Future) Replacement
  • Bullish Risk Reversal

Listener Questions and Comments

  • Comment from FContangotrader - I can't wait to start trading options on bitcoin.
  • Comment from Mrs Wartsoff - Paper trading does not count!!!!
  • Question from Jeli -Can I buy longer term options than LEAPs?
  • Question from Andrew Freeman: I know mike is out of AAPL but if he had to make an options trade out there now what would it be? There's no bid on the 70 puts and they only list December puts down to 80 where they are bid for nine cents.

Around the Block/This Week in the Market

  • Jun 27: Consumer Confidence
  • Jun 28: International Trade
  • Jun 29: Jobless Claims, GDP
  • Jun 30: Personal Income, Consumer Sentiment

 

Volatility Views 260: Petty Fights about Volatility

Posted June 26th, 2017

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

  • VIX Cash - 10.15, VVIX - 84.21, slightly higher than last week.
  • VIX is not a Fortune Teller
  • CBOE Skew Index - 130.86, calmer than last week.
  • VIX Futures - Front month: 1.5, Second month: 2.3

Russell's Weekly Rundown:

  • VIX Options: Mon - 746k, Tues - 1.3M, Weds - 912k, Thurs - 347k
  • VIX Call/Put: 4.1 / 1
  • Twenty-two Day C/P OI Moving Average: 3.32
  • Total 7.08m (5.69m Calls, 1.39m Puts)
  • OIV - 31.5
  • OVX - 32.6

Volatility Voicemail: Questions. Comments. More.

Options question of the week: Everyone is talking about #Bitcoin #Volatility these days. Where do you stand on #Bitcoin after last week's aggressive downturn?

  • Too Volatile, I am out
  • I am still bullish
  • I want #Bitcoin #Options
  • I am sick of #Bitcoin

Questions and comments

  • Comment from Production One? -SPX and VIX are far more fun! Also far more profitable and secure! Bitcoin snobs got nothing over the Vol cognoscenti!
  • Comment from PocketTissues -Goldman guy has the right idea. VIX should be above ten right now with everything going on. One good Trump tweet and we could be at war and VIX is in the 20s or 30s.
  • Question from Nico - What do you think of other Vix type indicators like Merrill Lynch Move Index and the rest? Also what?s up with VolDex?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

This week

  • Mark L. - 9.70
  • Mark S. - 10.05
  • Russell - 9.25

This Week in Futures Options 57: Time for a QuikSkew Trade in Corn

Posted June 26th, 2017

Topics this week include:

  • Corn
  • Crude Oil/WTI

Flash Poll: Crude Oil is taking a beating. Is the selloff overdone or is it a sign of things to come. Where do you think WTI will be at the end of 2017?

  • Around here (40-45)
  • Much lower (lower than 38)
  • A little higher (50-55)
  • Much higher (above 55)

Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments

Question from Ian Wagner: Hey TWIFO. I'm confused about gold options. Is there an options contract that tracks the future that is liquid?

Question from Ron Switzerland: What do you think about vol before the next USDA reports in corn?

Question from Mr. Bugato: What's paying the rent this week?

QOTW: Everyone is talking about #Bitcoin #Volatility these days. Where do you stand on #Bitcoin after last week's aggressive downturn?

  • Too volatile, I am out
  • I am still bullish
  • I want #Bitcoin #Options
  • I am sick of #Bitcoin

 


Where to Find Options Insider Radio?

Do you know all the ways you can access Options Insider Radio

            



Options Insider Radio Network Live Recordings

Do you want to be a part of the fun?

This is when you can access the LIVE shows this week:

Monday:
Option Block LIVE at 3pm Central

Thursday:

Option Block LIVE at 3pm Central

Friday:
Volatility Views LIVE at 12pm Central
This Week in Futures Options LIVE at 1:30 Central

As always, you can join in the fun at http://mixlr.com/options-insider/

 


Stats of the Week

  • VIX Cash Range: 9.68 - 15.16
  • S&P Cash Range: 2405.70 - 2450.42
  • SPX 30-Day Implied Volatility: 8.67
  • SPX 10-Day Realized Volatility:  9.69
  • SPX 30-Day Realized Volatility:  6.79
  • SPX Risk Premium (30-Day Implied - Realized): 1.88
  • Market Risk Premium (VIX Cash - SPX 30-day Implied Volatility): 2.51
  • S&P Skew Index
    • 06/26/2017  128.60
    • 06/27/2017  125.46
    • 06/28/2017  126.95
    • 06/29/2017  129.15
    • 06/30/2017  129.51

 

Strategy 101: Brought to you by Ally Invest

Options Playbook Radio 141: How We Roll

Posted January 12th, 2017

As promised last time, we are looking at how to manage positions, specifically rolling positions. You can find this in the appendix of The Options Playbook, on OptionsPlaybook.com, or in the Amazon Kindle version.

Specifically:

  • What does rolling a covered call actually mean?
  • When do you want to roll?
  • When do you NOT want to roll?
  • What are we doing if we roll up and out?
  • What if we just go out, not up?
  • What if we go up, not out?
  • Doing things quickly is key
  • What is the likelihood of assignment?

Do you have questions that you would like answered on the show? Send them to Brian at theoptionsguy@invest.ally.com.


 

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