When I set about making a schedule for the offseason here at Fantasy Baseball Today headquarters, I was operating under the assumption that, by the time I finished my State of the Position series, I would be ready to transition to offseason coverage. Surely, a flurry of moves, each more seismic than the last, would swoop across the baseball landscape, giving me plenty to write about every week.

That has not come to pass. That's not to say there hasn't been any news in recent days and weeks, but nothing that really changes much of anything for Fantasy players. Not yet, at least.

So, here's where things stand: I'm moving on to finalizing my rankings over the next couple of weeks, and I'm hitting pause on the newsletter for one week. With Thanksgiving coming up next week, I'm taking the week off from publishing, and we'll be back the first week of December, hopefully with trades, free-agent signings, and more to wrap our heads around. If anything does go down next week, I'll be here to react, but the plan, as of now, is to take a little breather.

One upside of the lack of action to date is it does give me an extra opportunity to take a look ahead at what the offseason might hold. So, in today's newsletter, I've got six moves we'd like to see go down from a Fantasy perspective. Notably, I'm not including names like Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki here because it just doesn't matter where talents like that end up (for the most part). No, my Fantasy Wish List for the rest of the offseason hinges on more fringe players whose value could actually be impacted by where they end up. 

Before we get to that, I did want to take some time to talk about some ballpark news that has come out over the past few weeks that could really impact how the Athletics, Rays, and Orioles look in 2025. It's a wrinkle that you need to know about before you draft for next season, so let's talk about what it means now. 

We'll be back in a couple of weeks to help you get ready for the 2025 season, but in the meantime, this is a good opportunity to catch up on what Scott White and I have been up to lately, which you can check out right here: 

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• Starting pitcher

Before we get to the specifics of these situations, I do want to point out one thing about both the A's and Rays' situations, which is that there are just a ton of unknowns about how these situations will play out. We can look at park dimensions and weather effects and try to estimate the impact, but the fact of the matter is there is a psychological element at play here that is wholly unquantifiable. These are major-league players, used to certain amenities and comforts (yes, even in Tropicana Field and the Oakland Coliseum) that may not be present in minor-league parks. 

How will that impact players? It might not at all, or it might impact everyone differently. But it's a factor looming over all of this that makes any analysis difficult. 

We've known about this one for a while, and while I suspect Sacramento will play a bit more hitter-friendly than Oakland, it might not be a dramatic change. The dimensions at Sutter Health Park aren't terribly dissimilar from those in Oakland – a bit deeper in the power alleys, especially in left field, but basically the same down the lines and to center field. But there is one key difference, and that is in the amount of foul territory available, as Oakland has more than any other park in the majors, while the park in Sacramento is much more intimate. There were 162 outs recorded in foul territory in Oakland last season, about 44 more than the average park and 87 more than in Atlanta, the lowest total of any park. We can safely assume there will be some impact here, though it isn't likely to be significant. 

The other factor here is weather. Sacramento is only about an hour and a half northeast of Oakland, but it has a much warmer climate overall, with the mean temperature sitting around 8-12 degrees warming during the summer months – with the highs even higher. Warm weather tends to have an inflationary effect on offense, as Eno Sarris wrote a few years ago, so even if the dimensions were identical in these two parks, you would still expect Sacramento to play more hitter-friendly. 

I'm not sure it's going to be an extreme effect, but on the whole, it seems safe to assume the A's are going from a relatively pitcher-friendly to one that should at least play closer to neutral. That's not nothing, and it should make the case for Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler sustaining their breakouts a little easier to make. 

Now, this one might actually be extremely relevant. Tropicana Field has played as one of the more extreme pitchers' parks in baseball, and not just because of dimensions – the strikeout park factor there is the fourth highest in baseball and Willy Adames represents a high-profile example of a player who has talked about how much trouble he has had seeing the ball there. And the pitches themselves seem to move differently there, as Thomas Nestico noted during the 2024 season. 

And now, as a result of the impact of Hurricane Milton on Tropicana Field, the Rays announced last week they will be making their temporary home at the Yankees' spring training facility in Tampa. George M. Steinbrenner Field shares dimensions with Yankee Stadium, so we already know it's going to benefit left-handed power hitters with that short porch in right field – so much so that I'm actively hoping the Rays don't trade Brandon Lowe, despite the fact that he's likely never going to be a true everyday player with the Rays. 

But it's not just lefties who figure to benefit. Tropicana is actually a pretty decent park for right-handed power, thanks to its own intimate dimensions down the left field line. But with the strikeout and stuff-elevating impacts of Tropicana likely no longer a factor, all batters for the Rays should benefit from the new park, and it could potentially play as even more hitter-friendly than Yankee Stadium thanks to the warmer weather in Tampa.

But it could be bad news for Rays pitchers, and not just because there will probably be more runs scored in the new park. You also have to consider the likelihood of rain delays that will impact pitcher schedules. Florida gets near-daily rain during the summer months, and while it tends to be more in the afternoon than evening, rain delays will still be a regular part of the Rays experience this season. If all it means is games get pushed back or rescheduled, that's no big deal (though it will cost pitchers the occasional two-star week), but when rain occurs mid-game, you run the risk of having pitchers' starts shortened. It might not happen more than a handful of times over the course of the year, but it's a headache we'd rather not have to deal with. 

All in all, I do think you can expect an increase in run scoring in Rays home games, and the park change could really adversely impact their pitchers, especially. I'm not necessarily running away from the likes of Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, or Taj Bradley, but I am a little more wary of trusting them now. 

Three years ago, the Orioles moved their fences in left field way back, and the effect on offense in Baltimore has been huge, as you can see by comparing home and road splits for Orioles pitchers in the three years since the change to the three years prior: 

• Home, 2019-2021: 5.740
• Road, 2019-2021: 5.377
• Home, 2022-2024: 3.795
• Road, 2022-2024: 4.097

The overall quality of the Orioles pitching staff has improved dramatically in this time period, obviously, but the trend is clear, and it's backed up by park factor data: Camden Yards went from a solidly hitter-friendly park (third in Statcast park factors from 2019 through 2021) to a park that leans toward pitcher friendly (19th from 2022 through 2024). And the effects were even more pronounced for right-handed batters, whose HR park factor went from the best in baseball before the fences were moved back to the fourth-worst.

The Orioles admitted the initial move, which saw them move the fences back by around 30 feet (while also raising the fence height in left field), was too drastic, so we're getting another change in 2024. It won't be quite as extreme as last time , and parts of left field in Camden Yards will still be quite deep. But on the whole, it should play a lot closer to neutral than either of the previous configurations and should help the right-handed bats in the Orioles lineup, especially Ryan Mountcastle, who has lost 11 homers over the past three seasons due to the wall changes, per BaseballSavant. 

Mountcastle is someone we've been hoping would get away from Baltimore, as he has been one of the most consistent underperformers based on his underlying quality of contact in recent years. But with the fences moved back in, maybe he can get back to being a 20-plus homer threat. In what should still be a very good lineup, that's not nothing, either. 

The hot stove is still pre-heating, and I have some concerns that this might be one of those offseasons that tends to drag along. For one thing, there are multiple Scott Boras clients out there with dreams of big paydays but major flaws that could make most teams unwilling to meet their asking price. We've seen examples of this in the very recent past, with Matt Chapman, Blake Snell , and Jordan Montgomery all remaining unsigned well into Spring Training last season.

I'm not worried about that with, say, Juan Soto or Roki Sasaki. But It's a real concern for Alex Bregman and Corbin Burnes, at least, as two older-ish players looking for $200 million contracts with apparently declining skill sets. I could see either ending up waiting a long time before signing based on the precedent Boras clients have established in recent years. And plenty of MLB teams have proven they're willing to sit out free agency entirely if it means not giving out a contract they don't want to.

Then there's also the Sasaki angle that needs to be addressed. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters this week he expected Sasaki to sign as part of the 2025 International Free Agent class, which means he won't sign until after January 15. That has significant implications for the rest of the amateur class, obviously -- teams are limited in how much they can offer Sasaki as a signing bonus, and you have to expect multiple teams will offer their entire pool for a chance to sign him. But it also might cause a slowdown in the free agent market elsewhere, as teams might be unwilling to move on the likes of Burnes if they still have a chance to add Sasaki. 

That confluence of factors could lead to a slowdown in the free agency process this year. Let's hope not, and let's hope we see these six moves come to fruition, too: 

I'm not 100% convinced by the theory that Snell's early struggles last season were solely the result of him not getting a proper Spring Training – I have a longer memory than that, and I know that "You can't use Blake Snell right now, he will absolutely wreck your ratios" is an annual trend at this point. Just check out these alarmingly high ERAs Snell has posted alarmingly late into each of the past four seasons: 

• 2024: 9.51 ERA on June 2
• 2023: 5.40 ERA on May 19
• 2022: 5.22 ERA on July 14
• 2021: 5.44 ERA on July 28

That being said, I'd sure like to see Snell avoid a repeat of last offseason, just in case. The late start to the season and abbreviated opportunity to get up to speed almost certainly didn't help, at the very least, so let's hope he can avoid that particular speed bump. I'm unlikely to be the one who takes the plunge on Snell – especially when I draft so many of my teams in the same leagues as Scott White, who has him ranked as a top-10 SP this year – but the reality is, his numbers typically end up looking ace-like eventually, as Snell has a 2.82 ERA and 1.158 WHIP over the past three seasons. 

You'll have to decide for yourself if you can handle the roller coaster that comes along with having Snell on your team, because the worst thing you can do is draft and then drop him when times get tough. I think there are enough knocks against Snell that I won't be willing to make him one of my staff's aces, but I would at least like to see him get a clean shot going into the season. He's certainly capable of proving my skepticism extremely wrong, as he shows for roughly three months every season. 

If what Crochet did last season is indicative of what to expect moving forward, Crochet is the kind of pitcher whose home park just doesn't matter. He was arguably the best strikeout pitcher among starters last season and showed good control and quality of contact abilities. So no, Baltimore moving in and lowering their left field fences certainly wouldn't scare me off – especially since right field there should play a lot more pitcher-friendly than Guaranteed Rate Field typically does.

So I'm going with Crochet to the Orioles here because it feels like the perfect match of team and player available this offseason. Even if the Orioles re-sign Corbin Burnes, which they should, this is a team that clearly needed another starting pitcher last season, and Crochet would be as good an option as they could find. Arguably even better than Burnes at this point in their respective careers. Crochet is less of a sure thing than many of the other aces out there, with just the one season's worth of performance at this level to go off. Which is why teams and Fantasy players are somewhat skeptical that he can be an ace for a full season. But the Orioles are close enough to being a World Series favorite that they can and should make the bet on Crochet. And it would be about as big of an upgrade in surrounding environment as you could hope for, taking Crochet's projected win total from below 10 to close to 15. 

Bregman is being viewed with a lot of skepticism from a lot of quarters as he heads into free agency, but the Phillies seem like a natural fit – I'm not saying they are luddites, organizationally, but they clearly are more worried about maximizing their chances of winning a title today than eking out every possible edge they can find with their payroll. Dave Dombroski isn't precious about building his teams, so where other teams might worry about how his contract might look in 2035, Dombrowski will see it as a way to widen the Phillies championship window today, and he seemingly has the backing of ownership all the way. Is Bregman a perfect player? Certainly not! But if he's going to leave that short porch in Houston, Philadelphia is about as good a park as he could hope to wind up in. 

As for the other part? The Yankees have been vocal about their desire to get more contact hitting in the lineup to balance out the big thumpers, and Bohm can be what they hoped DJ LeMahieu would be when they re-signed him – a contact-first bat who isn't swinging a wet noodle out there. Bohm faked us out with an apparent power breakout early in 2024 before settling in, where he normally ends up as a good but not elite bat. The Yankees need lineup depth even if they re-sign Juan Soto, and Bohm could provide that while filling in at either first or third base – and it helps that he played the hot corner a lot better in 2024 than he ever had before. If that sticks, he's kind of a perfect fit for what New York needs, especially if they don't want to make any other big splashes in free agency after (presumably) bringing Soto back. He might drive in 110 runs batting behind Soto and Aaron Judge. 

Okay, so the Astros need a third baseman if Bregman signs elsewhere, and Arenado could be a fit. He would represent an upgrade defensively at third base, and while his bat has lost a lot of thump, Houston could be a good spot for him to get back some of what he has lost. Arenado has always – and especially since leaving Colorado – relied more than just about any hitter in baseball on depositing fly balls three rows deep in the left-field stands. Well, the nice thing about Houston is those three rows are about 20 feet closer to home plate than they are in St. Louis, which would have led to about 30% more homers over the past three seasons. Would that be enough to stem the tide of Arenado's collapse over the past few seasons? Maybe not, but it might be his only path back to Fantasy relevance. 

Okay, so, admittedly, this one actually wouldn't be great for Duran's Fantasy value. And it probably wouldn't be great for whichever Mariners pitcher gets sent back to Boston, either – as I noted last week, the Mariners rotation has some pretty jarring home/road splits. But the Red Sox have a glut of position players they need to clear out even before accounting for their incredible corps of top prospects looming in the high minors. The Mariners desperately need bats, and the Red Sox need pitching, so this feels like a pretty good fit – and I am, selfishly, trying to engineer a clear path to an Opening Day role for Roman Anthony, whose combination of bat-to-ball skills, athleticism, and raw power could make him an absolute superstar in the next few years. 

The Orioles shouldn't even let him get an offer from another team, but if he does, you can rest assured that the Giants are going to be in on Burnes as they continue to try to make a splash in free agency. And, among teams that would be interested in a pitcher of Burnes' caliber, the Giants probably have the best home park to help mitigate the natural effects of his decline. Baltimore helped out quite a bit in that regard last season, providing a nice soft landing as his strikeout rate continued to decline, but with news that they are moving their fences in left field in, it won't be quite as nurturing an environment.

Of course, there's another part of this to keep in mind: Burnes may not need as soft a landing spot as we think. As I wrote last week, Burnes fixed some of the issues with his cutter toward the end of the season, bumping his whiff rate with the pitch back up to 26% and going on a run to close out the season, where he struck out 28 while allowing two runs over 27 innings in his final four starts. It's a small sample size, but it was combined with an acknowledgment from Burnes of what went wrong prior, as well as signs that he had addressed that issue. I'm optimistic, no matter where he signs.