HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

From populist to patron. Jacob Zuma, who staked his reputation on being the “people’s president,” was a charismatic departure from the often aloof President Thabo Mbeki when he came to power in 2009. And while his personality and charm helped launch him to the forefront of the ANC, critics argue it was political cunning and a system of patronage that kept him in power (and made him very rich).

A corrupting influence. Zuma’s middle name, Gedleyihlekisa, translates to “one who smiles while causing you harm.” And a long string of corruption allegations have trailed Zuma for years, from 783 counts of fraud over a multibillion-dollar arms deal to the $20 million of public money he used to make lavish upgrades to his home. Still, before this week, Zuma had survived eight motions of no-confidence and presided over 12 Cabinet reshuffles. The upshot? Zuma’s corrupt reign in many ways has helped reinvigorate civil society and boosted South African opposition parties.

A nation in turmoil … As Ramaphosa takes office, he now faces a government, and nation, in disarray. Four million people in the city of Cape Town could run out of water in a few months thanks in part to public mismanagement. The nation’s unemployment rate is around 30 percent and economic inequality is severe.

… gets a promise of radical change. Around 95 percent of the country’s wealth is owned by 10 percent of the population, and whites earn about five times more than Blacks. Ramaphosa has promised “radical economic transformation” including transfers of land to black South Africans, as well as a crackdown on corruption.

Election uncertainty. The South African people will get to formally weigh in on Ramaphosa’s performance during next year’s elections, which could be the first time the ANC loses power since 1994 and the end of apartheid—although still a long shot. The party lost major cities, including the capital, in 2016 local elections. And if the party fractures, it would be in even bigger trouble against opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters.

WHAT TO READ

The Brothers Who Bought South Africa, by Matthew Campbell and Franz Wild in Bloomberg
"[P]revious examples of state capture have almost always involved a broad cast of protagonists: an entire industry, for example, or wealthy businessmen as a group. In South Africa, it may have been pulled off by a single family."

How Zuma Lost Control — and the People Who Let Him Down, by Ray Hartley in the Sunday Times
"It is hard to believe now, but with Zuma's election came optimism."

WHAT TO WATCH