HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT
The “highest level of economic sanctions.” That’s what Trump promised toward Iran in his speech. Within the coming months, pre-deal sanctions will likely return, with the possibility of even stricter rules being added. Depending on the industry, companies like Boeing and Airbus, which will lose out on an agreed $40 billion deal with Iran due to the president’s action, will have either 90 or 180 days to stop trading with Iran. After 180 days, sanctions will affect Iranian industries including shipping, energy and finance. And businesses that do not heed the new rules after the wind down period are expected to face consequences, like possibly losing access to U.S. markets.
Deal or no deal? Both Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the pact’s European signatories — all of whom maligned Trump’s pullout — have suggested the deal’s not dead yet. French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said France, Britain and Germany would meet with Iran next week, though it’s unclear what they’ll be able to achieve since observers say the fate of the deal mostly hinges on whether international firms will still do business with Tehran despite U.S. sanctions. But not everyone’s unhappy: Saudi Arabia and Israel, two of Iran’s top regional rivals, endorsed Trump’s decision.
The view from Capitol Hill. The U.S. Congress has mixed feelings about Trump leaving the deal. Some Democrats who originally opposed the deal in 2015 now think it would be a mistake to leave it. Meanwhile, top Republican Mitch McConnell welcomed the move. But some Republicans, like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Republican senator Jeff Flake, expressed some concern about pulling out of the deal completely.
Knock-on effects for North Korea. Now that Trump’s torn up one nuclear deal, it’s time to seal another — but some believe the president’s negotiating power over Pyongyang may have been undermined by his policy on Iran. Analysts say Kim Jong Un will have fewer incentives now to seek a deal that could disappear at a moment’s notice. Still, as Trump steams toward his upcoming summit with his North Korean counterpart, he believes his tough talk against Tehran sends a strong message to Pyongyang.