Out with the old (A.I.) - In with the new (E.I.) (From Behind the Markets)

In a week that saw Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock end the week on a sell-off, the company announced a deal that supports the long-term bullish case for Palantir. Specifically, the company signed a 5-year, $100 million contract with the U.S. government to co-develop what it calls a Nuclear Operating System (NOS).

Nuclear energy is being explored around the world for several reasons. Globally, dozens of countries are reviving nuclear plans for their decarbonization strategies. In the United States, the Biden and Trump administrations have supported advanced reactors and the modernization of aging facilities, underscoring the bipartisan backing for nuclear as a reliable baseload power.

Also, the exploding demand for AI, evidenced by the proposed infrastructure spending on data centers, means the demand for power will reach levels that the current infrastructure simply can’t meet.

Third, many governments are actively subsidizing upgrades to critical infrastructure, meaning that this sector will likely benefit from both public and private dollars in the coming years.

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The Sell-Off Was Expected and Short-Lived

First, it’s important to understand why PLTR stock sold off so sharply at the end of the June 27 trading session. This had to do with the “Russell rebalancing.” In this case, Palantir is being promoted to the Russell 1000 from the Russell 2000. This reflects the company’s strong stock price growth in the last 12 months, which means it’s now part of the index’s large-cap category.

However, this promotion meant passive funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) had to rebalance their portfolios. This impacted several technology stocks, particularly those with high liquidity such as Palantir. As is often the case, however, this sell-off appears to be short-lived as PLTR stock is up more than 5% in midday trading on June 30.

Why Palantir is the Right Company for the NOS’s Work

Palantir described this contract as a “U.S. government partnership to develop an integrated Nuclear Operating System.” Many of the current nuclear facilities use decades-old equipment. One objective of this partnership is likely to be modernizing critical infrastructure.

That means more than hardware, it also means software and with that AI.

The goal is to create a next-generation digital platform to run, monitor, and optimize nuclear reactors and facilities. This will require the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, IoT sensor feeds, cybersecurity and predictive maintenance capabilities.

This is an example of how AI is carving out a role in the energy sector. Several companies are already building digital twins and AI-driven controls for power facilities, and similar work will likely be necessary in this case.

That plays into Palantir’s core capabilities, and the five-year commitment is another example of Palantir executing its strategy to add new customers on long-term, predictable contracts.

The NOS agreement follows a string of contracts with the U.S. Army and major energy companies, underscoring Palantir’s push to become the operating system for defense intelligence and the broader industrial economy.

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This Deal is Unlikely to Sway the Naysayers

This is one of many deals that Palantir has announced in the past three months. However, it isn’t causing the company’s detractors to move away from their bearish sentiment. An analyst from William Blair maintained a Hold rating on PLTR stock, although the analyst declined to issue a price target.

The analyst cited that OpenAI recently won the Department of Defense (DoD) bid over Palantir. The belief is that this is one example of growing competition as customers look for other alternatives.

That combined with the company’s lofty valuation, at least by traditional metrics such as a 112x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. This suggests that Palantir will have to continue to impress when it releases its earnings report in early August.

Written by Chris Markoch

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