Doppio's founders sell to Spur

Good Morning Voornaam,

If you're interested in Capital Appreciation and Spear REIT, then put on your equity analyst hat and enjoy the latest recording from Unlock the Stock. The recordings always include the interactive Q&A as well, so you can see exactly what investors are focusing on. Brought to you by A2X, watch it here>>>

Looking for green flags in companies is just as important as red flags. Balanced analysis is key to success in the markets. It also teaches you how to critically analyse any business model, which is good for your career or business as well. In the latest Ghost Global with Dominique Olivier and the research library in Magic Markets Premium, we looked at green flags in companies like MercadoLibre and Lovesac. Read it here>>>

With new episodes coming out on Monday, don't miss out on these:

  • Ghost Wrap: an 8-minute whirlwind update on Richemont, ArcelorMittal, Pick n Pay, Truworths, Mr Price, Super Group, Northam Platinum and Vodacom. Brought to you by Mazars, you'll find it here>>>
  • Magic Markets: a 20-minute investment of your time to learn about interest rates, why other markets t end to follow the Fed and what it means for banks and other sectors. Find it here>>>

Spur birthdays: now with more Parmesan cheese

I love a good local success story. The Doppio Zero group was founded just two decades ago, yet it grew into a R600 million revenue group that has now attracted the attention of Spur. The company is acquiring a 60% stake in the chain, significantly increasing the size of its premium restaurant business and especially the Italian exposure. Doppio Zero is highly focused on Gauteng, with obvious potential to expand nationally.

Liberty Two Degrees b> is far less of a success story, unless you were a recent shareholder before the news of Liberty (now wholly-owned by Standard Bank) making an offer to minority shareholders. Having lost nearly half its value since listing, those who bought the story in the height of the property bubble on the JSE have been really hurt. As always, buying hype is extremely dangerous and no sector is safe from getting out of control.

Some businesses seem to have "hype" built into the model over time. These are cyclical businesses and this isn't the same as hype, as commodity prices are impacted by supply and demand and one often outweighs the other. In contrast, a good example of hype this year would be Artificial Intelligence and what this has done to tech valuations in the US. Speaking of cyclical plays, Anglo American has seen HEPS drop by 55% in the latest period as the commodity ba sket price has fallen.

If you want the mother of all cyclical businesses though, look no further than ArcelorMittal. It comes with operating leverage and financial leverage, just for good measure.

For news on these companies plus Hammerson, Sirius, Super Group and Trustco, get your daily fix in Ghost Bites right here>>>

Friday vibes: DealMakers

As always, the team from DealMakers is here to make it as easy as possible to see what you missed this week. With great summaries across local M&A, local corporate finance and African deals, Ghost Mail keeps your finger on the pulse of local markets.

The ECB hikes

The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing their main refinancing rate to 4.25%. Much like the Fed, the ECB acknowledged that they will continue monitoring the data, leaving the door open for further rate increases. They also noted that inflation is likely to stay above the target for a prolonged period. Interestingly, the currency market saw this as more dovish than the bond market.

Moving across the large pond, the US Q2 GDP figure surpassed expectations at 2.4% vs. the anticipated 1.8%. US jobless claims were lower than expected, helping the dollar strengthen against most currencies. Core PCE Prices were lower than expected, indicating potential downside risks to the PCE Index as the Fed's favourite measurement of inflation.

TreasuryONE calls this a Goldilocks scenario, with growth exceeding expectations, inflation below expectations and the labour market continuing to strengthen. This is a highly favourable environment for equity markets and they celebrated accordingly. The sustainability of this situation remains debatable.

The rand traded below R17.45 in the morning but then lost all ground after the US d ata came out, moving closer to R17.90.

With that, I wish you a lovely weekend!

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | ArcelorMittal | Hammerson | Liberty Two Degrees | Sirius | Spur | Super Group | Trustco)

Anglo and ArcelorMittal are reminders of how commodity cycles work. Hammerson is paying a divi and Liberty Two Degrees is being taken private. Spur buys Doppio. Great numbers from Super Group. Trustco announces the Meya deal. Sirius recycles capital.

Red flags are tricky to spot. So are green flags, or reasons to invest in a company and believe in the long-term future. Here are two examples of green flags, using global case studies.

Ghost Global: Hunting for Green Flags
Naspers Notice of Annual General Meeting and Circular 2023

Distribution of Notice of the virtual Annual General Meeting and Circular

Capital Appreciation and Spear REIT returned to the Unlock the Stock platform to update investors on the recent numbers and the strategic outlook.

Unlock the Stock: Capital Appreciation and Spear REIT
Who's doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Weekly summary of Merger & Acquisition activity by South African companies

Weekly summary of corporate finance activity by South African exchange listed companies

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies
Who's doing what in the African M&A space?

Weekly summary of all Merger & Acquisition activity from across Africa (excluding South Africa)

 

To understand the impact of the rate cycle on general equities, banks and consumer businesses, you can enjoy this episode of Magic Markets.

 

There was a bearish tone to many of the updates over the past week, particularly in businesses that are heavily impacted by load shedding. This includes retailers and industrial groups.

 

Grant Field, CEO of Fedgroup, joined me to talk about their impact investing platform and how this offers and exciting and accessible entry point into alternative assets. I highly recommend giving this a listen.

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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