January was a refreshingly strong month for many economic reports, but especially for metrics relating to the housing and mortgage markets.  This wasn't too hard to reconcile with December and January having much lower mortgage rates, on average than October and November.   There's also a point at which housing market has sustained enough damage that buyers start seeing more value.  This sentiment has also been in play depending on the market in question.  In other words, prices and sales had lost enough ground that prospective buyers were seeing more value.  Lower rates only compound the effect. The concern was that February's sharply higher rates might push back in the other direction.  There was already some evidence for this based on the noticeable decline in purchase applications reported in the MBA's weekly numbers. Today's release of February's Pending Home Sales figures from the National Association of Realtors adds to the case for resilience in the housing market.  Despite the rising rates in February and a forecast calling for a drop of more than 2%, Pending Sales managed to  increase by 0.8%.   No one would confuse the outright level of sales with being strong.  In fact, the index continues to operate near record lows.  But the point is that we're seeing resilience in yet another report despite expectations for a poorer showing.  Long journeys and single steps, etc...
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March 29, 2023
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Housing News
January was a refreshingly strong month for many economic reports, but especially for metrics relating to the housing and mortgage markets.  This wasn't too hard to reconcile with December and January having much lower mortgage rates, on average... (read more)
Housing News
Applications for both home purchases and refinancing rose for the fourth time during the week ended March 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a season... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates didn't move nearly as much as they have been moving on any given day during the past 3 weeks.  This is a reflection of calmer trading in the underlying bond market which is, in turn, a reflection of a ... (read more)
MBS Commentary
Another Boring (But Resilient) Day After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcome.  Their only real downside is that there's not much to say about them.  Bonds are waitin... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says, “I've lost my electron.” The other asks, “Are you sure?” The first replies, “Yes, I'm positive.” (Yes, its cutting-edge humor like this that keeps you coming back.) Do positive thoughts matter? Houston’s Norina and ... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries