Pfizer buys into bowels | Fly me to the moooon |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 14th in 3:06 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Pfizer announced it’ll be buying Arena Pharmaceuticals for almost $7 billion
  2. New research suggests there are four possible post-Omicron economies ahead of us – Read Now
  3. The cost of flying cargo around the world is now at record highs

Access All Areas

Access All Areas

What’s Going On Here?

Pfizer announced plans on Monday to buy Arena Pharmaceuticals in a near-$7 billion deal, so let’s just hope the US drugmaker doesn’t regret meeting its hero…

What Does This Mean?

Business has been booming for Pfizer during the pandemic, thanks in no small part to a little-known vaccine it produced alongside BioNTech. In fact, the company’s expecting its annual revenue to be nearly twice as high this year as it was in 2020 – a new record.

But Pfizer’s not about to rest on its laurels, and it’s been looking to use all that extra cash to expand into other treatments. It started by buying Trillium Therapeutics for $2.2 billion last month to boost its arsenal of blood cancer therapies, before going one step further this week: the company announced it’d be buying drug developer Arena Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion. Pfizer's hoping it’ll help speed up the development of Arena’s most promising drug – a tasty little bowel disease number.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Pfizer goes above and beyond.
Arena’s share price jumped 92% following the announcement, which is pretty standard: Pfizer is paying a premium on what Arena’s currently worth to try and convince shareholders to accept the offer. And not just a small premium, either: the deal values Arena’s shares at $100 each – about double what they were trading at before the announcement.

Zooming out: Pfizer’s making serious margins.
Pfizer might be smart to branch out sooner rather than later. See, the company is reportedly selling its vaccine – which costs just 76p ($1) a dose to produce – for £22 ($29) a dose in the UK. But now that it’s coming under so much fire for arguably profiteering off a life-and-death situation, it might have no choice but to cut its prices – not great news for its bottom line going forward.

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Analyst Take

It’s The Omicronomy, Stupid

It’s The Omicronomy, Stupid
Photo of Carl Hazeley

Carl Hazeley, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

As if everything wasn’t uncertain enough already, now Omicron’s arrived.

That’s thrown the economic recovery up in the air, and left investors scrambling to work out what impact the variant could have over the next couple of years.

So turn your attention to new research from investment manager Abrdn, which argues that there are four most likely scenarios ahead of us now.

Some of those scenarios are more optimistic, like the one where consumers make use of their household savings to drive global economic growth 2% higher than Abrdn’s current forecast.

And some of those scenarios… aren’t.

So that’s today’s Insight: the four scenarios that Abrdn thinks are on their way, and how to position yourself to profit whichever one you see coming.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Crate Expectations

Crate Expectations

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Monday showed that the cost of flying cargo around the world has reached record highs, as the world’s economies try to get their fragile economies where they need to be.

What Does This Mean?

Supply chains are always messy in the run-up to Christmas, but this year’s come with an added wrinkle: a shipping container shortage has been forcing companies to transport their products by air rather than sea. That’s problematic because passenger planes transport half of all air cargo, and many of them are  – for obvious reasons – still grounded. And while logistics companies like FedEx and DHL are trying to pick up the slack, it’s not enough: the amount of air cargo that can be transported is 13% lower than it was at the same time in 2019. So it stands to reason that costs are literally sky-high, with prices on key routes between China and the US and Europe having nearly doubled in the last three months (tweet this).

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Danged if they do…
The world’s biggest central banks are set to meet this week to discuss how to tackle spiking inflation, and this data will only compound their worries. But Omicron’s put them in a Catch-22: anything they do to slow down rising prices also risks disrupting their countries’ economic recoveries – not ideal at a time when lockdowns are back on the cards.

Zooming out: Turkey chances its arm.
Turkey’s arguably a good example of what not to do: the country’s prices were an eye-watering 21% higher in November than the same time last year, largely because its central bank has recently taken the left-field approach of cutting interest rates. That’s made it cheaper for companies and people to borrow money, encouraging them to spend and pushing prices even higher. Batten down the hatches: economists are expecting the country’s central bank to cut rates even lower this week.

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💬 Quote of the day

“We are here to make another world.”

– W. Edwards Deming (an American engineer, statistician, and professor)
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