HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT
A new war? At the height of Sri Lanka’s civil war, the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam — fighting for a separate Tamil homeland — controlled a third of the country’s territory. But that war largely avoided religious divisions in Sri Lanka’s multi-faith society, where 7 percent of the population is Christian, 10 percent Muslim, 12 percent Hindu and 71 percent Buddhist. The country has witnessed smaller attacks by militant Buddhist groups against religious minorities. But Sri Lanka has never before seen targeted strikes against places of religious worship on this scale.
Missing the signals. The bombings raise fresh questions about whether security agencies around the world, for many years focused on the ISIS threat, are missing red flags emerging from other sources that could help them stop attacks against places of religious worship. News agency AFP reported that it had seen an intelligence report issued by Sri Lanka’s police chief Pujuth Jayasundara 10 days ago that warned that an Islamist organization, the National Thowheeth Jama'ath (NTJ), was planning to attack churches and the Indian High Commission. The government hasn’t named the NTJ as responsible for the blasts so far. But this inability to protect churches even after a warning follows New Zealand’s failure to recognize the threat posed by the Christchurch attack suspect, who had posted threats against Muslims online. The Pittsburgh synagogue killer too had posted vitriolic anti-Semitic messages online before his attack.
Setback for tourist paradise. Since the end of the war a decade ago, Sri Lanka’s economy has doubled in size, from $42 billion to $87 billion, and the country’s pristine beaches, tea plantations and rich culture have drawn millions of visitors. The average number of foreign tourists visiting Sri Lanka per month has increased five-fold, from 50,000 in 2009 to 250,000 in 2018. The country has South Asia’s highest per capita income, and tourism contributes more than 11 percent of Sri Lanka’s annual GDP. Following Sunday’s terror attacks — especially because the bombs targeted popular hotels and left many foreigners dead — the country’s tourism sector is expected to take a hit. That, in turn, threatens to stall Sri Lanka’s efforts to move beyond the violence of its past.
Politically speaking. Today’s violence will likely have a knock-on effect. Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe late last year. Sirisena named his predecessor, Mahinda Rajapaksa — known for crushing the Tamil insurgency in 2009 — as Wickremesinghe’s replacement, but critics decried the move as unconstitutional. A standoff ensued, resulting in Wickremesinghe’s reappointment in December, much to Sirisena’s chagrin. Today's attacks are likely to bolster Rajapaksa’s standing, thanks to his tough-on-terror reputation, and some predict that the attacks will lead to opposition calls for a more autocratic style of governance. Any such move will rile up both China and India, who support opposing sides in Sri Lankan politics; Beijing sides with Rajapaksa while India is closer to Wickremesinghe.
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