Plenty of Rate Volatility Despite Holiday-Shortened Week

Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds didn't quite manage to completely erase the damage done during the first half, but they came close enough to help balance the near term outlook. Credit goes to the slightly lower reading in Core PCE for the bulk of the AM rally. But Chicago PMI didn't hurt, falling to the lowest levels in more than a decade apart from the initial covid lockdown. Bonds didn't rally for much longer after that and then spent the rest of the day in a sideways, narrow range, just above the 4.50% technical level. As big as this week's apparent volatility may have been, next week's potential is much bigger as it brings the typical combo of events seen during the 1st week of every month (ISMs, JOLTS, ADP, NFP). Econ Data / EventsCore PCE m/m0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast Core PCE y/y2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast/prev Chicago PMI35.4 vs 41.0 f'cast, 37.9 prev Market Movement Recap08:58 AM Stronger after PCE data. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.509 10:03 AM Additional gains after Chicago PMI with MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 6.1bps at 4.491 01:11 PM MBS an eighth off best levels but still up 3 ticks (.09) on the day. 10yr still down 4.1bps at 4.511 but up from lows of 4.49. 02:54 PM Weakest levels of the afternoon with MBS up only 1 tick (.030). 10yr still down 3.9bps at 4.513

May 31, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds didn't quite manage to completely erase the damage done during the first half, but they came close en... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Plenty of Rate Volatility Despite Holiday-Shortened Week This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher almost immediately. It's often said that the bond market can experience elevated, seemingly random ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Co-Issue, MERS Audit Products; Retirement, Wholesaler Lawsuit, MBA and CFPB Requesting Info How is it that there are only three weeks until the summer solstice? Three more weeks of the amount of daylight increasing in the Northern Hemisphere, and then, if you want more sun time, head to the Southern half of the globe. If you think president... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.17% -0.12% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.17% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.70% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.75% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.45% -0.07 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.33% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.77% -0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/31 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.70% -0.06% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.03% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.36% +0.12 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/30 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.05% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.66% +0.24 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.22% +0.04 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/29 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.08 +0.08 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.08 +0.08 UMBS 6.5 101.65 +0.10 GNMA 6.0 100.62 +0.09 GNMA 6.5 101.45 +0.02 Pricing as of: 5/31 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5055 -0.0465 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.878 -0.047 5 YR Treasury 4.511 -0.056 7 YR Treasury 4.514 -0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.506 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.653 -0.024 Pricing as of: 5/31 5:31PM EST Latest Video PCE indicates economy 'inching towards stagflation,' says Michael Cuggino The Fed can afford to take 'a little bit of risk' with rate cuts, says Pant... Fed policy at restrictive levels but economy hasn't made enough progress to... The Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.2% in April, as expected Around the Web CNBC The Feds preferred inflation measure rose 0.2% in April, as expected Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 5.6% YoY in April Marketwatch Chicago business-activity index weakens to lowest level in four years CNBC Mortgage payments have grown the most in this U.S. city over the past 2 yearsit's not New York or San Francisco Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.8% Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Multi-family Increased Slightly Eye on Housing Residential Construction AD&C Lending Declines CNBC Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending CNBC Fed's favorite inflation gauge is expected to show very slow progress on Friday Marketwatch Fed's Williams expects inflation to cool in the second half of the year Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.5% YoY; Most Homes For Sale Since July 2020 CNBC Treasury yields inch higher ahead of key inflation data CNBC Euro zone inflation rises to 2.6% in May, but bloc still seen heading for interest rate cut

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