By Michael Shepherd - Oct. 19, 2022
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📷 Former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin speaks at a campaign event at Dysart's on Broadway in Bangor, Oct. 13, 2022. (BDN photo by Sawyer Loftus)

Good morning from Augusta. There are 20 days until Election Day.

What we're watching today

Maine's former congressman speaks in generalities about how he would attack costs. Like former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin or not, there is one thing the Republican possesses that public-relations people stress: "message discipline." It means someone tries hard to talk about subjects that are helping him and avoid those that are not.

All politicians do this. Poliquin takes it to the extreme. He went through two campaigns in 2016 and 2018 not saying in public whether he was voting or had voted for former President Donald Trump. He has now taken Trump's "America first" line as he tries to turn his race with Rep. Jared Golden into a standard Republican vs. Democrat affair in the 2nd District, which was won twice by Trump and appears to be on a long-term trend toward Poliquin's party.

When you ask voters — especially Republicans — the economy is the top issue in this election. It fits neatly into Poliquin's political career, which started with a 2010 run for governor that he parlayed into the state treasurer's seat. The former congressman has been working hardest at trying to associate Golden with national Democrats, while the economy is the issue that he has been hammering the most in public appearances and ads.

Forecasters differ on the favorite in Maine's 2nd District, but Republicans are the safest bet to win the House in this midterm election. They are feeling bullish and recently outlined a vague agenda that served in part as an homage to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's 1994 majority-making plan. It includes Trump-like policy flourishes on the economy, immigration and social issues.

At a Tuesday event after Poliquin accepted the endorsement of the Border Patrol union, he was asked about his plans to attack costs. He said a new majority would "stop this crazy spending," cancel taxes enacted by Democrats and increase the domestic supply of oil to drive down prices.

Let's take that apart. While Golden opposed President Joe Biden's two most ambitious spending bills, he recently voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains the taxes that Poliquin is referencing. It contains no direct tax increases on those making less than $400,000. Some estimates have said those making less could see indirect effects, but they do not account for benefits under the law.

Domestic oil production has been recovering after a crash when the COVID-19 pandemic set in, but it is not yet back to pre-pandemic levels. Boosting oil production has been a major talking point for Republicans, but it has not lined up neatly with the debate over Democrats' recent spending bill. Exxon Mobil, for example, was encouraged by energy incentives in the measure.

All of this is to say it is unclear how quickly a Republican majority would be able to bend back the global problem of inflation. They may not need to have a specific plan to gain back control of the House from Democrats at this roiled economic time. Poliquin may be betting on that and he did not bite on a question about a Republican leader's suggestion that Biden's impeachment would be on the table.

"My priorities are very clear. This nice gentleman asked the question," he said, gesturing to another reporter. "I went through my priorities. The people of the state of Maine are very concerned about how they're going to get through this winter."

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What we're reading

🌷 A progressive referendum drive has led to a "polarized" Portland and a big-money campaign from business interests that shows signs of life.

🏥 LePage's idea to boost the number of doctors in Maine was not his, and it is already in motion at the University of New England.

🔎 The pandemic and an economy marked by inflation have helped many workers, but those reliant on public funding may not be benefiting, according to a report from the liberal Maine Center for Economic Policy.

💻 Piscataquis County commissioners rejected a second plan to expand broadband across the region, calling it too costly.

🎤 The BDN and CBS 13 are hosting a gubernatorial debate between Mills and LePage on Monday at 7 p.m. Submit your best questions here.

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News and notes

📷 This combination of file photos shows former Rep. Bruce Poliquin in 2017, left, and Rep. Jared Golden in 2018, right. (AP photos by Robert F. Bukaty)

📺 The 2nd District is absolutely saturated with ads.

◉ The race between Golden and Poliquin is expected to see more ad spending than all but two House races, according to AdImpact figures released last week.

◉ Roughly $25.3 million in ads are expected to be targeted at the district through Election Day. That figure includes reservations and money spent. It is a staggering sum that exceeds all of the spending on the 2018 race in the 2nd District, which was the most expensive campaign in Maine history at the time.

◉ Poliquin has an advantage on the air due to a rush of national Republican money being trained on House races. AdImpact expects his party to outspend Democrats by $3.5 million at the election's end.

🔢 Expect heavy turnout compared to the 2018 gubernatorial election.

◉ Maine is expected to see just over 667,000 voters in the Nov. 8 election, according to estimates released this week by Echelon Insights.

◉ That would be 60 percent turnout in a midterm election, a high figure in a state that always sees high levels of voter engagement. It would also be 37,000 more voters than Maine saw in the 2018 election won by Gov. Janet Mills, who now faces former Gov. Paul LePage and independent Sam Hunkler.

◉ The estimates show a hard statewide road for Republicans. In the 2nd District, the expected group of voters went to Trump by just over 6 percentage points in 2020. The corresponding group in the 1st District went for Biden by nearly 23 points.

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