Polls leave UK Conservatives deep in trouble

Hello. Today we're looking at this week's local elections in England and Wales, which highlight Conservative struggles ahead of general elections taking place in the coming year. Sir John Curtice, a professor of politics and renowned election researcher, has offered his analysis to the BBC. We're also hearing from Liberia, where President Joseph Boakai intends to set up a first war crimes court looking at decades of civil conflict. Today's edition is decidedly for our most Anglophile readers, with a piece on the London Underground, and another on royal calligraphy.

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Why UK Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives lost four councils and more than 200 councillors in England. Credit: Reuters

England and Wales have voted in local elections on Thursday, providing some insights on the mood of the British electorate ahead of upcoming general elections. Even as the Conservatives faced a dire election day, the results highlight some pain points for the opposition Labour party.

How bad a day is it for Conservatives?

Some of their losses were inevitable. Most of the seats being elected on Thursday were previously contested in May 2021, when the Conservatives were six points ahead of Labour in the national polls. The scale of their reverses will worry the Conservatives. They have lost half of the council seats they were trying to defend.

What does the data say?

The detailed voting figures in 800 key wards collected by the BBC suggest the Conservatives' local election performance is one of its worst ever. According to the BBC’s projected national share, an estimate of how the country would have voted if local elections had taken place everywhere, the Conservatives’ tally was just 25%. However, Labour’s projected share has also fallen a point on last year to 34%, meaning the party’s nine point lead over their principal rivals has not changed.

Is it all bright for Labour?

Labour’s vote did not hold up everywhere. The party suffered a loss of support in particular in many of those wards that have a relatively large Muslim population, a pattern that cost the party control of Oldham. It seems that Sir Keir Starmer’s on Gaza has cost his party support.

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