By Michael Shepherd - July 26, 2022
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📷 Gov. Janet Mills smiles during a press conference at the conclusion of the National Governors Association meeting in Portland on July 15, 2022. (BDN photo by Troy R. Bennett)

Good morning from Augusta. There are 105 days until Maine's November elections.

What we're watching today

This year's election is a clash between a popular group of top-tier Democrats and hard environment for them. We have not seen an election year quite like 2022. Coming off one term of a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump, we now have an unpopular President Joe Biden. In a strange pandemic hangover, inflation and costs are sky-high and the economy contracted this year, yet spending has been strong.

The conventional wisdom is that Republicans will have a strong 2022 in a midterm election for the Democratic president. It is still a major possibility, with FiveThirtyEight giving Republicans about a 50 percent chance of wresting both chambers of Congress from Democrats now only in control of Washington by slight margins.

Yet we are now seeing a national trend of Democratic governors resisting a drag from the president. Polling released by Morning Consult last week found Biden's approval underwater by 10 percentage points in Maine, yet Gov. Janet Mills' at a remarkably consistent 53 percent mark observed in the firm's last three rounds of quarterly polling.

Her opponent, former Gov. Paul LePage, has a loyal base of supporters but relatively narrow popularity outside of them, topping out at 47 percent approval in his tenure during a 2011 honeymoon period with united Republican control of Augusta. Party registration in Maine has tilted more toward Democrats since he left office.

Despite all of this, the Mills-LePage showdown is looking like a hotly contested race, with the former governor within a few points of the current one in polls conducted this spring. Sources in both parties say more recent internal polls back up those figures. LePage is probably still an underdog (FiveThirtyEight gives him a 22 percent shot after weighing polls and environmental factors), but he is one with a chance.

Popularity and environment are crashing together in another big race. If only environment mattered, Rep. Jared Golden of Maine's 2nd District would be on his way out of Washington with Republicans on track to take the House back. But he was leading former Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the conservative-leaning district by more than Mills' lead over LePage statewide in the spring. Golden's unique attributes, highlighted by a police group's support, could win the day.

For now, Republicans are building their campaign around national factors. A messaging push on Monday pitted Maine's slight economic contraction earlier this year against mirroring growth in Republican-led New Hampshire, though a wider look at the map showed contraction in 46 of the 50 states. They still have a good changce to make waves in this election, but the urgency is heightening for them to whip up enthusiasm enough to beat a durable crop of Democrats.

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News and notes

Mills will speak at an abortion-rights rally in Portland on Wednesday.

— This is the national issue that Democrats are hoping to turn into voter enthusiasm on their side, particularly in culturally liberal states like Maine after the U.S. Supreme Court ended federal abortion rights last month.

— The governor will be in Lincoln Park at 9:45 a.m. with officials from Planned Parenthood's political committee to outline actions "voters need to take" to shield abortion rights in Maine, according to a release from the group.

— LePage, who is anti-abortion, has tried to downplay the issue. He told Maine Public on Monday that he would not try to reverse a 1993 law shielding abortion access, saying he was "certainly not involved in reversing it or even attempt to do anything against abortion."

— But Maine social conservatives have at least been targeting abortion expansions under Mills if Republicans take power in the 2022 election.

Maine's November legislative ballots are set.

— In Monday's newsletter, I updated you on the state of replacement candidates, who are picked by local parties to replace those nominated in the June primaries with no intention of running in November.

— There were only scant changes by a filing deadline of Monday at 5 p.m. Of the 36 primary nominees who dropped out, 27 were replaced in races across both legislative chambers.

— Among the notable Monday entrants was Democrat J. Mark Worth, who will face Republican John Linnehan for an open Ellsworth-area House seat. Linnehan, a hard-right businessman, who has pushed the Agenda 21 conspiracy theory and repeated Trump's false claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.

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What we're reading

— The weekend's arrest of a 15-year-old boy in the killing of his 14-year-old girlfriend in Mount Vernon was the first time in a decade that a Maine child was charged with killing another.

— Nearly half of millennials born in an eight-year timespan who were raised in Down East Maine had left by age 26, a national study released Monday found.

— The midcoast.com email domain name was retired on Monday, severing one of Maine's few remaining links to the dial-up era. Here's your soundtrack.

— Gas prices are falling slower in Maine and other northern New England states in part because of limited competition between stations.

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Photo of the day

A rendering shows a planned 50-unit apartment building for Mainers with disabilities at the The Downs complex in Scarborough. The nonprofit 3i Housing of Maine is a partner in the project, which is slated to open in 2024 pending approvals. (Courtesy of The Downs via CBS News 13)

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