| | | | Wednesday, December 13, 2023 | | So ... what now? | | You made the playoffs, you had your waiver run last night, so now what? Our first game this week takes place Thursday night, and you might have some tough decisions to make with the Chargers and Raiders on the schedule ... or you might not have any decisions to make at all. | | See, the Chargers are playing without Justin Herbert, who was put on IR following surgery on his finger Tuesday. And Keenan Allen hasn't practiced yet this week due to a heel injury, so if he can't go, that's one tough decision off your plate. You probably don't want to start Josh Palmer or Gerald Everett without Herbert, and even Austin Ekeler looks pretty fringe-y right now -- given his diminished level of play this season, he's become suddenly pretty touchdown dependent, and there might not be many opportunities to score with Easton Stick at QB. | | On the other side, the Raiders are already pretty shallow on viable Fantasy options, and Josh Jacobs hasn't practiced either due to his knee injury. So, it looks like we're going to have a Zamir White/Ameer Abdullah combination at RB there, in an offense that hasn't exactly been great for running backs of late anyway. Even with a good matchup, I'd like to avoid both. | | Of course, I can't write those players off entirely, but given the reality of an Easton Stick-Aidan O'Connell matchup on Thursday night, you might be better off avoiding that game outside of Ekeler, Davante Adams, and Allen (if he plays). We'll have a better idea of what that game is going to look like tomorrow, when the full injury reports are out, and I'll have my Week 15 game previews right here in your inbox tomorrow morning ready to go, but let this serve as a sneak peek. | | In today's newsletter, we've got Heath Cummings' Week 15 Position Previews here for you. Before we get to that, though, I'm going to do another mailbag later in the week, and I want your questions for it. Send them my way at Chris.Towers@Paramount.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included in Friday morning's newsletter. | | Those questions I don't get to in Friday's newsletter, I'll try to answer directly, so send them in! We're trying to help you get to and then win a Fantasy championship here, after all. | | My Week 15 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | | 🔍Week 15 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | "The No. 14 QB in FPPG is facing the defense that allows the third-fewest Fantasy points to opposing QBs. Seems like an easy sit right? What if I also told you that his No. 1 WR is battling an ankle injury and that this defense has already held him to single digit Fantasy points once this season. No chance you're starting him, right? What if I told you his name is Tua Tagovailoa? | | It sure sounds like a hot take when you say that you would start Matthew Stafford over Tagovailoa in Week 15, but it is what it is. In the first run of my projections, the Dolphins QB came in at QB12, right behind Stafford, Justin Fields, and Jared Goff. For now, I'm projecting Tyreek Hill as active, but not fully himself. And that will make all of the difference. | | Hill has accounted for 32% of his quarterbacks completions, 41.7% of his passing yards, and 50% of his touchdowns. If Hill can't play in Week 15, I would move Tagovailoa outside of my top-15 quarterbacks, possibly outside of my top 20. If we get to Friday and Hill gets in a full practice, Tagovailoa likely moves closer to QB12 in the rankings. I'm still not sure I could start him over Stafford, who has the best matchup available to a quarterback in 2023." | Injuries: C.J. Stroud (concussion), Justin Herbert (finger), Geno Smith (groin), Derek Carr (ribs), Kenny Pickett (ankle) and Zach Wilson (knee) Number to know: 12.9% -- Joshua Dobbs had the sixth-highest off-target throw rate in the NFL. Nick Mullens is unlikely to be a downgrade as a passer and could be an upgrade.
Matchup that matters: Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYJ (30th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: Gardner Minshew, Colts: "Matthew Stafford is available in 19% of leagues, he's a must-add, must-start QB this week. Jake Browning is available in 32% of leagues. I would start him over both Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray . But strictly based on our rule of guys below 65% roster rate, Gardner Minshew remains the best streaming option available." | | | | RB Preview | | "As we enter into the Fantasy playoffs, you'll hear a lot of "start your studs" or "dance with the girl you brought" or some variance. The point being that if you drafted someone early in drafts and made it to the playoffs, you should keep starting them. But with the way Austin Ekeler has performed over the last month, I would understand if you were hesitant, especially in non-PPR. | | Ekeler is coming off his best performance of the last month, a 100-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Broncos. But as bad as the Raiders have been against running backs, the Broncos are a much better matchup. They've allowed 27% more Fantasy points to running backs than the Raiders and they give up more than a yard per carry more to the position. They also just held the Vikings without a touchdown and Easton Stick will draw the start for the Chargers. | | This is all best illustrated by the fact that the Chargers are a field goal underdog to the Raiders on Thursday night, with an implied team total of 15.5. That, combined with Ekeler's rushing inefficiency and loss of rush share last week means that when you look at my projections you won't see Ekeler projected as a top-20 rusher in any format. I the rankings, I'm still willing to boost Ekeler closer to RB15 in full PPR, because Stick will likely target him at a higher rate. Still, he's far from a must-start, especially in non-PPR, where I would start both Lions and both Dolphins backs over him." | | | Injuries: Josh Jacobs (knee), Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), Jerome Ford (wrist), Alexander Mattison (ankle), Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring), Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), Jonathan Taylor (thumb), Aaron Jones (knee) and Elijah Mitchell (knee). Number to know: 22.4% -- De'Von Achane is second on the Dolphins with a 22.4% target share since his return. Both he and Raheem Mostert are must-start RBs.
Matchup that matters: David Montgomery vs. DEN (2nd vs. RB)Waiver add: D'Onta Foreman, Bears: " Ty Chandler and Zamir White could have more upside than Foreman if the starters on their teams are officially ruled out, but Foreman doesn't need an injury. He led the team with 13 touches and 72 yards from scrimmage in Week 14 and has even caught two passes in two of his last three games. He's a nice flex this week with top 20 upside." | | WR Preview | | "Justin Jefferson returned in Week 14, but not for long. A serious chest injury sent him to the hospital to get check out after just 13 offensive snaps. Everything checked out fine at the hospital, and Head Coach Kevin O'Connell is hopeful that Jefferson will be able to play in Week 15, which is going to leave Fantasy managers with an uncomfortable decision to make. Do they go right back to Jefferson as well? I would say unequivocally, yes. | | In those 13 offensive snaps Jefferson was targeted three times and hauled in two of them for 27 yards. He was not a decoy coming off of his hamstring injury and there's no reason to believe he will be this week either. We don't know for sure who will start for the Vikings but the expectation is that it will be Nick Mullens, and strictly for the receivers, that is probably an upgrade over Joshua Dobbs. The matchup is against a Bengals defense that has ranked amongst the league's worst for most of the season. If Jefferson is on your lineup, and active for the Vikings, he should be in your starting lineup. | | The more difficult decision is what to do with Jordan Addison. Well, only if you play in a three-receiver leagues. Addison can be benched in two receiver leagues, likely even if you start a flex. The rookie has been very touchdown dependent with Jefferson on the field, which puts him in that Gabe Davis range of "start him if you don't have three good receivers." For what it's worth, I would prefer Addison, but they are in the same neighborhood this week if Jefferson plays." | Injuries: Justin Jefferson (hamstring), Nico Collins (calf), Keenan Allen (heel), Christian Watson (hamstring), Marquise Brown (heel), Rashid Shaheed (quadriceps), Michael Thomas (knee), Demario Douglas (head), Josh Palmer (knee), Tutu Atwell (concussion), Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) and Michael Wilson (shoulder)Number to know: 35% -- Wan'Dale Robinson had a 35% target share on Monday night. He's a must-add and a decent flex play in Week 15.
Matchup that matters: Davante Adams vs. LAC (6th vs. WR) Waiver add: Curtis Samuel, Commanders: "Samuel is my highest projected wide receiver for Week 15 who is available on the waiver wire. He has been targeted on more than 30% of his routed over the last month and he plays on one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. He doesn't have quite the upside of Beckham or Robinson, but he may be a better one-week starter." | | TE Preview | | "We don't know for sure that Darren Waller is coming back in Week 15. We don't know for sure that he'll make it back at all this season. But he is 54% rostered and still IR eligible, so he should definitely be added just in case. Waller isn't one of the top tight ends to add for this week, because of that uncertainty, but by Week 16 he could be a must-start tight end. | | Waller played more than 60% of the snaps in six games this season. In half of those games he scored 13 PPR Fantasy points or more. And that production largely came in a Giants pass offense that was not as effective as the one we have seen recently. Tommy DeVito 's 6.8 yards per attempt and 6.3% touchdown rate are both significantly better than what the Giants we producing before he took over. | | Maybe more important than what Waller or DeVito has done this season is who they'll play in Week 16 and Week 17. When most leagues are playing their Fantasy semifinals Waller will face an Eagles defense that has been one of the worst pass defenses in football. They've also given up the sixth-most Fantasy points to tight ends this season. Then, in championship week, the Giants face a Rams defense that has given up the second-most Fantasy points to tight ends this season. The Rams have given up double-digit Fantasy points to a tight end in three straight games and five of their last six. | | If you have a bye this week, Waller should be one of your top priorities on the waiver wire. He could finish the season as a must-start option." | Injuries: Dalton Kincaid (shoulder), Taysom Hill (foot), Dalton Schultz (hamstring), Gerald Everett (hip), Darren Waller (hamstring), Tyler Higbee (neck), Luke Musgrave (abdomen), Zach Ertz (quadriceps) and Greg Dulcich (hamstring)Number to know: 16.2 -- Trey McBride has averaged 16.2 PPR FPPG since Week 8. He should go right back in your lineup over anyone not name Travis Kelce.
Matchup that matters: Cole Kmet @CLE (24th vs. TE)Streamer: Isaiah Likely, Ravens: "Last week, we were starting Likely on a hope. Now, with him earning nearly a 20% target share in his last two games, we have some actual justification. If Likely's 20-point outburst in Week 14 doesn't convince you, he's facing a Jacksonville defense that has given up 65 points in their last two games against the Bengals and Browns." | | | | | | | | NFL Slimetime | | CBS Sports Golazo Network | Watch NFL Slimetime, co-hosted by Nate Burleson and Young Dylan, on Wednesdays at 7:30/6:30c on Nickelodeon and streaming the next day on Paramount+!
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