Good morning from Brussels.

Although negotiations are officially still ongoing, multiple sources told Euractiv that the Parliament’s main pro-European groups (centre-right EPP, socialist S&D and liberal Renew) may announce today an agreement to get the pro-EU coalition that reelected Ursula von der Leyen out of political deadlock.

The spat started after the EPP attacked the socialist executive vice-president candidate Teresa Ribera over the deadly floods in Spain. 

The EU socialists reacted by rejecting Italy’s Raffaele Fitto having an executive vice presidency role in the next Commission because he is coming from Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right ECR but enjoys the full EPP support.

The toughest challenge is for socialists to break their pre-EU election red line, not to have any hard-right politicians in top EU jobs, and vote for Fitto to save Ribera, who will be grilled today in Spanish parliament over the floods.

A deal among the three may reinforce the traditional pro-European centrist majority that has driven EU politics for decades, but Euractiv’s Magnus Lund Nielsen and Nicoletta Ionta report that the final wording is unlikely to explicitly prohibit the EPP from building majorities with far-right forces. 

Politically, some estimate it’s a crucial reality check for EU socialists as the EPP clearly prevails in numbers and could seek majorities to pass legislation on the right. 

If the impasse continues, the executive will not take office in early December. 

“Such a scenario would render Europe a subject of global ridicule”, former Commission president Romano Prodi and former commissioner Mario Monti said in a statement. 

A Parliament source familiar with the ongoing talks said there is still time to reach a deal, and a vote next week is realistic as “no one wants to be blamed for putting the new Commission at risk”.

Meanwhile, in Berlin a meeting of Olaf Scholz's (SPD) leaders on Tuesday caused speculation about his future as a growing number of party officials say Defence Minister Boris Pistorius should be lead candidate in the February elections. 

EU countries will have spent a total of €326 billion on defence in 2024, the EU Defence Agency said on Tuesday, a record high.

In the economy field, the integration of Europe’s capital markets has largely failed to advance and may even be in “regression”, a top European Commission official said on Tuesday, echoing fresh warnings from the industry. 

Moreover, at the G20 summit in Brazil, European delegates were unhappy with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's decision to end talks and issue the group's final statement a day early to curtail prickly discussion on the war in Ukraine, sources said.

BERLIN

A meeting of Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) leaders on Tuesday caused speculation about his future as a growing number of party officials say Defence Minister Boris Pistorius should be lead candidate. Read more.

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PARIS

Mercosur: Paris schedules parliamentary vote in last-ditch effort to sway the EU. The French government announced on Tuesday it would hold a parliamentary debate followed by a vote over the EU-Mercosur deal as President Emmanuel Macron is running out of options to try to sway the EU Commission away from an agreement before year-end. Read more.  

ROME

Former European Commission president Romano Prodi and former commissioner Mario Monti, both former Italian prime ministers, urged European leaders on Wednesday to drop their vetoes against the appointments of Italy's Raffaele Fitto and Spain's Teresa Ribera to the European Commission. Read more.

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LISBON

Portuguese president voices support for Ukraine's EU and NATO path. Portugal supports the Ukrainians on their path to the European Union and their aspirations to join NATO, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said on Tuesday, marking Ukraine's "1,000 days of courageous resistance" against Russia. Read more.

STOCKHOLM | HELSINKI

Finland and Sweden plan to set up a joint team to investigate the damage done to undersea cables earlier this week, Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation (KRP) said on Tuesday amid suggestions that the damage resulted from sabotage. Read more.

WARSAW 

A group of leading European foreign ministers met in Warsaw on Tuesday to reaffirm solidarity with Ukraine in spite of potentially reduced US assistance, reject imposed peace solutions and explore the use of Eurobonds for defence funding. Read more. 

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PRAGUE

EU court: member states cannot stop EU immigrants joining political parties. An EU citizen living in another member state must be allowed to join political parties in that country, the bloc's top court ruled on Tuesday. Read more. 

Future Czech commissioner must not lose sight of development aid, says NGO expert. The International Partnerships portfolio, originally focused on development aid, needs to be reconciled with the strategic priorities that Ursula von der Leyen has listed for Czech commissioner-designate Jozef Síkela such as critical raw materials, said Michala Traplová of the Czech NGO People in Need. Read more.

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BUDAPEST

Experts doubt Orbán’s role as EU-US mediator. Experts agree that Orbán was right to place his bets on the Republican candidate, and he is likely to gain from the new administration, but they remain sceptical about his ability to mediate between Brussels and Washington. Read more.

SOFIA

Leader of Bulgaria’s pro-Russian party sanctioned for hate speech against Jews. Bulgaria’s equality body has ordered the removal of a series of Facebook posts by Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov targeting his political opponent of Jewish origin, Daniel Lorer of We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), saying they constitute hate speech against Jews. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Romanian electoral campaigns largely neglect key policy issues. Key issues such as Romania's difficult economic situation, youth and the environment are strikingly absent from the campaigns for both the parliamentary and presidential elections, with the parliamentary elections taking place between the first round and the presidential run-off. Read more.

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ZAGREB

High-profile corruption case allocated to Croatian instead of EU prosecutors. The EPPO said that a criminal group was trying to win contracts for projects, including EU-funded ones, but Croatian State Attorney said the scheme didn’t involve EU funds. Read more.

• EU: High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on official visit in Jordan;
• Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič participates in signing event of Cooperation Agreement for Greek Islands Decarbonization Fund;
• Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides delivers keynote speech on Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan and takes part in debate at European Cancer Summit;
• Action Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra meets with Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grynchuk and Deputy Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources for European Integration Olga Yukhymchuk, in Baku, Azerbaijan;
• Parliament President Roberta Metsola addresses the European Committee of the Regions.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Alice Taylor-Braçe]