Friday will be one of the busiest report days of the year for the grain markets as USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings. Much of the focus will be on USDA’s “final” crop estimates for corn and soybeans. But Dec. 1 grain stocks have a history of providing market-moving surprises, especially for corn. With corn, soybeans and wheat struggling to attract buyer interest, bullish data is likely needed to put in market bottoms.
While the focus will likely be on corn and soybean production figures, winter wheat seedings could be a driving factor in price direction, which are expected to fall around a million acres below last year. Our research indicates analysts have historically overestimated acres, though that has switched in recent years, with last year’s seeded acreage nearly 2.5 million acres above even the highest estimate. However, a notable price drop since late July could increase the odds of lower-than-expected acreage on Friday.
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