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Weekly Market Analysis June 19th 2017 |
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Pound volatility to worsen as Brexit talks officially begin Despite the continued political fallout from the UK general election result, GBP/EUR was able to post a strong recovery over the last seven days, rising 1% to €1.1432 today. GBP/USD, meanwhile, has gained over a cent since last Monday, hitting US$1.2796. Brexit negotiations begin today, so expect volatility from the pound. But what else is on the horizon? |
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Today's Rate The rates above are using the British pound (GBP) as the base rate. All rates are for indication purposes only. Prices can vary dramatically based on amount and delivery date. |
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| | “It’s almost exactly a year to the day since the UK voted to leave the European Union, and today Brexit negotiations are finally due to begin.”  Transfer 24/7 with our currencies direct app   |
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Pound It’s almost exactly a year to the day since the UK voted to leave the European Union, and today Brexit negotiations are finally due to begin. Theresa May’s government is very far from the position it wanted to be in when talks began, having thrown away a majority in Parliament with a chaotic general election campaign. The pound is positive for now, but how long before a rumour, comment or report regarding the talks sends it tumbling? |
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Euro The euro has started the week on mixed form, despite positive news from the weekend’s French legislative elections. President Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche! party and its Democratic Movement allies have secured 351 seats in Parliament; well above the 289 needed for a majority. While this has cheered the markets, analysts are worried that the low turnout figure of around 43% could suggest Macron will face an uphill struggle in keeping the electorate happy. |
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US dollar Having been buoyed by the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision last week to raise interest rates as expected, the US dollar is now facing a rather empty week in terms of data. There are plenty of Federal Reserve officials speaking, however, so USD could be moved by fluctuating odds of further monetary tightening. |
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Australian dollar & New Zealand dollar Mixed outcomes from last week’s data kept the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fluctuating. GBP/AUD was on track to start today nearly a cent lower, but has raced above last week’s opening levels to AU$1.6827 this morning after Moody’s announced it had downgraded the credit ratings of a dozen banks in Australia, including the big four, due to risks to the housing market. Meanwhile, after a choppy week GBP/NZD continues to trade around last week’s opening levels at NZ$1.7600. |
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