Bitcoin's downtrend looks to have ended four months ahead of the reward halving
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January 13, 2020



Ethereum Classic's Agharta hard fork was successfully activated at block number 9,573,000 at 06:26 UTC on Sunday, according to etcnodes.org.

"Agharta" has the same goal as the recent "Atlantis" update, which was implemented in September 2019 to increase the interoperability of the Ethereum Classic with Ethereum.

The latest hard fork has also incorporated the opcodes of the Constantinople and St. Petersburg upgrade to the mainnet of Ethereum Classic (ETC), so as to increase the benefits clients of both ethereum and ethereum classic blockchains. 

While the latest update is expected to create better interoperability, it has not had any positive impact on price so far. 

The world's 20th largest cryptocurrency is currently trading at $5.40 on Bitfinex, representing a 3.15 percent drop on the day. 

ETC bottomed out at $3.40 in December as bitcoin's price sell-off ran out of steam near $6,500. The ethereum's offshoot has rallied more than 59 percent since. 

Ethereum Classic (ETC) is a distributed ledger and decentralized computing platform with smart contract capabilities which came into existence after a contentious hard fork, following the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) hack in June 2016. 

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Breakout on Longer Duration Chart

BTC: Price: $8,100 | Market cap: $147 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $22.59 billion



Trend: Bullish

Bitcoin jumped more than 10 percent last week, confirming an upside break of the six-month-long descending channel. 

The breakout is confirmed by an uptick in trading volumes, as noted by popular Twitter analyst @flibflib, and could fuel a rise to October highs above $10,000. 

In fact, with the breakout, the odds of the cryptocurrency repeating history by crossing the June 2019 high of $13,880 ahead of the May 2020 mining reward halving have strengthened. 

Historically, bitcoin has hit a new market cycle top (the highest point from the preceding bear market low) in the calendar year of a halving, but before the event, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital. Note that cycle tops were well short of record highs.

For instance,  bitcoin bottomed out near $150 in January 2015 and rose to a high of $502 in November 2015, confirming a bullish reversal. Prices then fell back to $365 in February 2016 before hitting a new cycle top $778 in June – a month ahead of the reward halving, which took place in July 2016.

So, if history is a guide, bitcoin could clock highs in the range of $13,880 (2019 high) to $20,000 (record high) before the third halving, due in four months.

The bullish breakout  would be invalidated if prices print a weekly close (Sunday, UTC) below $7,342, although that looks unlikely currently.

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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.

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