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Thursday, November 17, 2022 |
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
If you love movies as much as you love football, then today is a huge day for you, and that's because the first preview for Tom Brady's movie has finally been released. Brady isn't exactly the star of the move, but his name is in the title and he does appear in it, so I'm calling it Tom Brady's movie (It's actually called "Eighty for Brady" and you can see the preview here). |
As for actual football, we've got a game tonight in Green Bay! I've never been to Lambeau Field before and if I do ever go, it definitely won't be for a game where the temperature is going to be under 30 degrees, which is exactly what's going to be happening tonight for the Titans-Packers. The kickoff temperature is expected to be around 25 degrees tonight, which is so cold that I will probably be pouring hot chocolate on myself just to stay warm (I get cold when I think about being cold). |
We'll be giving you a full preview of tonight's game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at the five remaining games on the NFL schedule that could have the biggest impact on the playoff race. |
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. |
1. Today's show: Brady Quinn breaks down the latest NFL news |
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If you're going to listen to just one episode of the Pick Six podcast every week, then you should definitely make sure that you're listening every Thursday, because that's when Brady Quinn joins the show. For today's episode, the former first-round pick chatted with Ryan Wilson, including a preview of tonight's game and whether the Commanders should keep starting Taylor Heinicke. |
Quinn also talked about the current situation in Las Vegas with Josh McDaniels. Brady actually played for McDaniels back in 2010 and he had a positive experience. |
"I learned a lot from him," Quinn said. "The way he called plays and how he diagrammed things up. I would put him up against anyone as far as his offensive acumen and his ability to put up stats, numbers, drives, whatever you want. He has the ability to put that up." |
Quinn also thinks the Raiders would be crazy to fire McDaniels after just nine games. |
"I think it's going to take some time before they get this organization to where they want or need it to be," Brady said. "I think last year, because they overachieved, it makes this year look bad, but I'm still buying what this team is capable of being and I think what they will be in the future. I think if you hit the panic button now, you make a mistake." |
If you want to hear Brady's full thoughts on the topic -- and everything else the two guys talked about on today's podcast -- then be sure to click here. |
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2. Thursday night preview: Prepping you for Titans at Packers |
This game will be played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. As a matter of fact, the temperature is expected to be so low tonight (25 degrees) that you might get cold just watching the game. The upside for Green Bay is that Aaron Rodgers is nearly unbeatable in cold weather: The Packers QB is 10-1 in his past 11 games where the kickoff temperature has been under 35. |
My good buddy Jared Dubin wrote our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
- Why the Titans can win: The Packers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and the last person you want to be facing when you can't stop the run is Derrick Henry. The Titans will likely go to Henry early and often and if Green Bay can't slow him down, that should put Tennessee in a good position to win. Henry has averaged 121.8 yards per game in his past five games and if he gets close to that number, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Titans lose.
- Why the Packers can win: Aaron Rodgers could go off tonight and that's because he'll be facing a Titans defense that has struggled to stop the pass all season. Tennessee has surrendered an average of 272.6 passing yards per game this season, which is the second-worst number in the NFL. For most of the season, the Packers' passing game hasn't been much of a threat, but Rodgers got hot against the Cowboys and if he stays hot, the Packers should be able to win this one.
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If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview (odds via Caesars Sportsbook). You can check out Tyler's full gambling preview by clicking here, but if you don't feel like clicking over, here's one prop from both of us for tonight's game. |
- ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Derrick Henry OVER 101.5 rushing yards (-131): "This is a massive number to expect Henry to top, but the proof is in the pudding. Henry has topped this number in five of his last six games and he'll be facing a Packers defense that surrenders 140.6 yards per game on the ground, which is the seventh-most in the NFL this year."
- ONE PROP I LIKE: Derrick Henry OVER 1.5 receptions (-160): This prop doesn't have great value, but I still love it and that's because Ryan Tannehill is back under center for the Titans. In the past five games Tannehill has started, Henry has gone over this total ALL five times while averaging three catches per game. In the two games where Tannehill wasn't under center this season, Henry caught a total of just one pass.
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Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight in a game where the Packers are 3-point home favorites: |
Dubin's pick: Packers 23-17 over Titans Sullivan's pick: Titans 24-21 over Packers My pick: Titans 20-17 over Packers |
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3. QB news: Stafford likely to start, Heinicke keeps his job for another week |
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It's been an interesting week for starting quarterbacks around the NFL. Some of them have been battling injuries while other ones have been battling rumors that they might get benched. Here's a look at every possible QB change we might see come Sunday: |
- Matthew Stafford likely to start. The Rams QB practiced on Wednesday and coach Sean McVay sounded optimistic that Stafford would be able to start against the Saints on Sunday. Stafford was in concussion protocol last week, which caused him to miss the Rams' Week 10 loss to Arizona in a game where John Wolford got the start.
- Andy Dalton to start vs. Rams. With the Saints having lost four of their past five, there was some speculation that they might bench Andy Dalton, but that won't be the case, at least not this week. Although Saints coach Dennis Allen admitted that a QB change was discussed, he said the team ultimately decided to make Dalton the starter for Sunday.
- Taylor Heinicke to start vs. Texans. After leading Washington to a win over the Eagles, Heinicke will be keeping the starting QB job for at least another week. With Carson Wentz coming off injured reserve, there could eventually be a QB controversy in Washington, but that won't be happening in Week 11.
- Kyler Murray's status still up in the air. The Cardinals QB missed Arizona's Week 10 game against the Rams with a hamstring injury, and that same injury could keep him on the sideline for a Week 11 game that's being played in Mexico City against the 49ers. If Murray can't go, then Colt McCoy will get his second consecutive start.
- Davis Mills not getting benched. With the Texans struggling, Lovie Smith was asked this week if he was thinking about benching his starting QB and he shot that idea down pretty quickly, "I just don't think it's time," Smith said of benching the QB, via NFL.com. "Simple as that. Quarterback position's a little bit different." This means Mills will be the starter against Washington on Sunday.
- Falcons not planning a QB change. After the Falcons' loss to the Panthers in Week 10, Arthur Smith didn't exactly give Marcus Mariota a vote of confidence. However, Smith did make it clear this week that he won't be benching his starting QB in favor of rookie Desmond Ridder. "We're right in the middle of it," Smith said, via NFL.com. "Not where we want to be, but the reality is you're right in the middle of a playoff race with a conference opponent coming in here for a game we need to win." The Falcons play the Bears on Sunday.
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For a look at all the injuries around the NFL this week, including the illness that has hit the Bills locker room, be sure to click here. |
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4. Five remaining games that could have a huge impact on the NFL playoff race |
With Thanksgiving right around the corner, that means you're going to be hearing a lot about the NFL playoff picture going forward. Yesterday, we unveiled our playoff projections (which you can check out here) and today, we're going to take a look at the five remaining games that could end up having the biggest impact on this year's playoff race. |
This list comes from Jeff Kerr and here's a look at the five games he came up with: |
- Week 11: Cowboys at Vikings. "If Dallas loses, the Cowboys can forget about winning the NFC East. If Minnesota loses, taking home-field advantage in the NFC will be significantly more difficult."
- Week 13: Chiefs at Bengals. "With the Bengals already sitting at four losses, they're almost certainly going to need this one no matter how they do in the two weeks leading up to this game. If the Chiefs win, Kansas City will have control of the home-field advantage race in the AFC."
- Week 14: Eagles at Giants. "The Eagles are only one game up on the Giants in the NFC East race, and play them twice in the final five weeks. This game will have the more significant meaning with Philadelphia fighting for home-field advantage and looking to take control of the division for good -- especially if New York slips up before this game happens."
- Week 15: 49ers at Seahawks. "This matchup might be the best Thursday night game of the year. With the Cardinals and Rams both looking hopeless, this game will likely go a long way toward deciding who wins the NFC West."
- Week 15: Dolphins at Bills. "Not only could this game be for the AFC East title, but a top-two seed in the conference could be in play as well (especially if the Chiefs were to slip up). This feels like a must-win game for a Bills team that has already dropped one to the Dolphins this year."
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5. Super Bowl odds heading into Week 11 |
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With the Vikings and Cowboys getting set to play each other Sunday, now seems like a good time to go over the latest Super Bowl odds and that's mainly because those two teams currently have some of the best odds to win it all, according to our friends over at Caesars Sportsbook. |
Here are the odds for the 10 teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl heading into Week 11: |
1. Bills +380 (Bet $100 to win $380) 2. Chiefs +475 3. Eagles +650 4. 49ers +850 5. Vikings +1100 6. Ravens +1300 7. Cowboys +1400 T-8. Buccaneers +1600 T-8. Dolphins +1600 10. Bengals +3000 |
Worst odds: Texans and Bears -- +100000 (Bet $100 to win $100,000) |
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If I had to bet my money right now on a team to win the Super Bowl, I'd probably go with the Chiefs and that's because I just don't trust anyone else right now. The Eagles just lost to the Commanders, Josh Allen can't stop throwing interceptions and there's no way I'm betting on Kirk Cousins to win the Super Bowl. Of the top teams in the NFC, I think my favorite bet would be the 49ers. |
If I was looking for a dark horse bet to make, I like the Bengals (+3000) or Titans (+3500) in the AFC and the Giants (+6000) in the NFC. The Giants look really enticing, considering their odds are at 60-to-1 even though they already have seven wins. |
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6. Rapid-fire roundup: Browns-Bills could be moved out of Buffalo |
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
- Browns-Bills game could be moved. With a huge snowstorm headed for Buffalo, the NFL is thinking about moving Sunday's game. If the game can't be played in Buffalo, the most likely candidate to host the game would be Detroit, CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones has reported .
- Tom Brady named in lawsuit. The Buccaneers QB was named in a lawsuit that was filed over the failure of crypto company FTX. According to the lawsuit, the company needed celebrities like Brady "to continue funneling investors into the FTX Ponzi scheme, and to promote and substantially assist in the sale of the (accounts), which are unregistered securities." You can read all the details of the lawsuit from the Tampa Bay Times by clicking here.
- Lawsuit against Urban Meyer gets dismissed. Meyer didn't win many games on the field for Jacksonville, but he did pick up a victory in the courtroom this week. A judge in Florida has dismissed a lawsuit that was filed by former Jaguars kicker Josh Lambo, who accused Meyer of creating hostile work conditions.
- David Johnson signs with Saints practice squad. After going unsigned through the first 10 weeks of the season, the All-Pro running back has a new home. The Saints added Johnson to their practice squad this week, giving them some more depth at running back.
- Texans claim Amari Rodgers and Eno Benjamin. Houston has had a busy week when it comes to adding players. Over the past 24 hours, the Texans claimed former Packer receiver Amari Rodgers and former Cardinals running back Eno Benjamin off waivers.
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