Job-poaching AI, Alibaba's comeback, and dopamine decor |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 29th in 3:14 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Goldman predicted that AI could affect 300 million jobs in the world’s biggest economies
  2. Here are four recessionary scenarios and the investments that might hold up in each of them – Read Now
  3. Alibaba announced that it’s splitting its empire six ways

AI-pocalypse Now

AI-pocalypse Now

What’s Going On Here?

A fresh report from Goldman Sachs this week sees AI affecting hundreds of millions of jobs.

What Does This Mean?

Folk got pretty excited once they realized AI systems like ChatGPT could craft content that rivals human output. After all, the tech has some advantages over flesh-and-blood employees: it doesn’t need a wage, it doesn’t need to rest, and it won’t make off-color jokes to colleagues on staff nights out. No wonder, then, that some see this as a shot in the arm for flagging productivity growth: Goldman Sachs thinks that AI could end up boosting the global economy by 7% over a 10-year period.

But there's a catch. Goldman also thinks that around two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe could feel AI's cold embrace to some degree, with lawyers and admin staff at particular risk of joining the endangered species list. In fact, if AI delivers on its promise, it could impact the jobs of 300 million full-time workers across major economies.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Give and take.
There are fears that AI will churn out a generation of displaced white-collar employees, like manufacturing workers back in the ‘80s. And compared to some academic studies, Goldman's estimates might even be playing it safe. But let’s not be hasty: this kind of innovation could unshackle employees to focus on more valuable work, and displaced workers could wind up re-employed in new fields. History suggests as much anyway: studies show that 60% of workers now have roles that didn't even exist in 1940, thanks in large part to tech-driven job creation.

For you personally: Artificial all-stars.
AI’s poised to turbocharge the tech industry, but some players look set to get a little more oomph than others. Goldman’s betting on companies that can weave AI seamlessly into their existing offerings, scoring points by upselling and improving customer retention. So you might want to keep tabs on the usual tech suspects for your portfolios: Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Salesforce, and Meta.

You might also like: How to invest in AI.

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Analyst Take

The Economy’s Walking A Tightrope: Here’s How To Prepare For Both A Crash And A Soft Landing

The Economy’s Walking A Tightrope: Here’s How To Prepare For Both A Crash And A Soft Landing

By Russell Burns, Analyst

A lot can change in a couple of months, and that’s especially true in an uncertain environment like this. 

So I’ve compared abrdn Research Institute’s latest quarterly economic outlook to its outlook at the beginning of the year, and made note of what’s changed.

And because each potential outcome could have its own implications for your investments, I’ve summarized some ideas that could help set your portfolio up to stick the landing – no matter what course lies ahead.

So that’s today’s Insight: what you could expect from a soft or hard landing, and how to prepare for both.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Sixpack Ab-ibaba

Sixpack Ab-ibaba

What’s Going On Here?

Alibaba flexed its muscles on Tuesday, announcing that it’s splitting along six sharply defined business lines.

What Does This Mean?

A heavy-handed regulatory crackdown wiped half a trillion from Alibaba’s market value in recent years, but the firm’s fortunes finally seem to be looking up. See, the Chinese government’s warming to tech businesses once again, in what analysts see as a necessary step toward this year’s 5% growth target. And Alibaba's elusive founder Jack Ma – typically a persona non-grata in mainland China – is back after a year-long hiatus, in what might signal a long-awaited olive branch from the government. At any rate, Alibaba’s gearing up for a major transformation, splitting its empire into six distinct business lines. That’ll see the company separate divisions like cloud and logistics from its main e-commerce segment – giving each one more autonomy and paving the way for independent stock market listings down the line.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: The opposite of synergy.
Investors tend to be skeptical about conglomerates’ ability to juggle unrelated businesses under one roof, and that means multipurpose firms aren’t always as valuable as the sum of their parts. In Alibaba’s case, splitting up its business segments could allow each division to innovate and grow more quickly – while giving investors the option to bet on more “pure-play” firms if they do end up being listed separately. That could be why the announcement went down a treat with investors, who sent shares up 9% when the news broke.

The bigger picture: Wake up and break up.
In some ways, this is a win for the Chinese government too. One main worry for regulators was that concentrated power in the tech industry could stifle broader innovation – and by decentralizing decision-making, Alibaba’s done something to address that. In fact, some pundits think that Alibaba could start a trend among its tech rivals, which have generally steered clear of big shakeups and split-ups to date.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The problem with people who have no vices is that generally you can be pretty sure they’re going to have some pretty annoying virtues.”

– Elizabeth Taylor (a British-American actress)
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🎯 On Our Radar

  1. Artificial pontiff. Here’s the guy who fooled the world with a fake image of the Pope.
  2. Dopamine decor. This colorful interior design trend is sweeping social media.
  3. It’s not about the bag. It’s how you carry it that matters.
  4. Marvel BCE. Comic-book heroes draw on a storehouse of seriously ancient myths.
  5. Weird and wonderful. Coincidences can make even the most rational folk feel superstitious.
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