Presidential politics is a bleak place, especially within the two-party system.
The R’s leading candidate is facing 91 felony counts and 100+ civil suits. The Colorado Supreme Court is barring candidate Trump from the state’s ballot. Then we have the incumbent, an obviously aging octogenarian who claimed he’d step aside after one term, then decided he likes being the most powerful person in the world.
Pollster Frank Luntz notes that 70% of Americans do not want a Biden vs. Trump rematch, and two-thirds of Americans would consider a third-party candidate.
Today, we speak with Dr. Luntz, a world-renowned political consultant, professor, and pollster. He regularly speaks on national media like Face the Nation and Meet the Press, and he’s served as an impeachment commentator on Bloomberg, CNBC, and other major outlets. He’s also a favorite speaker at our Strategic Investment Conference.
Luntz on Third-Party Candidates
We know Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is running, and I suspect he’s more popular than the media cares to admit. I’ve also heard whispers about everyone from Bill Ackman and Jamie Dimon to Mark Cuban, Larry Hogan, and Joe Manchin.
No Labels is cleared to put a candidate on the ballot in 12 states and is aiming for 20 states by the end of next month. Frank says this will be the most important candidate in the election.
But can he or she actually win? And what about the other R and D candidates?
In the interview, Frank explains where the performance floor is for credible third-party candidates, and where the ceiling is, too. He walks through the legal mechanics of how the election could play out. It’s an important preview because we all know this election will likely be litigated on the back end.
US politics is not our primary focus here at Global Macro Update. As much as I might like to, we cannot ignore the 2024 presidential election. It affects our economy and the markets, as well as the global geopolitical landscape.
Regardless of who wins, we all share an interest in maintaining a stable democracy based on the rule of law. That is a precursor to the extraordinary economic and financial opportunities Americans enjoy. Without democratic structures and norms, we all lose.
In the interview, you will also hear:
Why we no longer have a silent majority of centrists
Why the big loser of the Colorado decision is Nikki Haley
How university professors are feeding the decline of civil political discourse
This was a weighty interview, but not without optimism. Luntz outlines three concrete steps we could take now to move the country away from political chaos. No surprise, it includes a better approach to social media, something I’ve advocated for myself here in this letter.
You can watch my full interview with Dr. Frank Luntz on YouTube by clicking the image below. A link to the transcript is below. If you prefer audio-only podcasts, search “Global Macro Update” on your favorite podcast player.
A transcript of my conversation with Frank Luntz is available here.
Best regards,
