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| Friday, November 24, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Black Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I hope you didn't fill up on football yesterday, because there is more football coming your way today. For the first time in NFL history, the league will be holding a Black Friday game. Normally on Black Friday, I buy 75 things that I don't actually need, but since I'll be watching the game for three hours, I'm thinking that will cut down on the amount of things I buy. |
| Of course, since the game is on Amazon, I might end buying twice as many things as usual. I'll be honest, guys, I have no idea how this is going to play out. Anyway, let's hope today's game is more exciting than what we got yesterday, because for Thanksgiving, we got three blowouts. |
| The Commanders got beat so bad that they fired their defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio. It's kind of crazy that Del Rio just lost his job when you consider that the Commanders traded away TWO of his best pass rushers (Montez Sweat and Chase Young) last month. That being said, nothing Washington does makes sense, so if you think of it in those terms, then this move makes sense. |
| Alright, we've got a lot of ground to cover today, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 12 |
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| If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then just when you think we're done making picks, we make more picks. |
| For today's show, host Will Brinson was joined by R.J. White and Alex "PropStarz" Selelnick -- two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine -- and the three of them offered some of their best bets for Week 12. |
| The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we're going to go over a few of their best bets here: |
| Will Brinson (0-3 in picks we shared here last week, 15-17-1 on the season) |
| Falcons money line (+105) to beat SaintsBroncos money line (-120) to beat BrownsPanthers at Titans UNDER 37 total points |
| R.J. White (3-0 in picks we shared here last week, 16-17 on the season) |
| Giants (+3.5) to cover against PatriotsEagles (-3) to cover against BillsRavens (-3.5) to cover against Chargers |
| Katie Mox (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 14-16 on the season) |
| Texans (+1.5) to cover against JaguarsSteelers at Bengals UNDER 34.5 total pointsJaguars at Texans OVER 47.5 points |
| As for PropStarz, he usually hands out props, but there wasn't a full prop slate available when this show was recorded on Wednesday, so we're propless for today, which is unfortunate, because PropStarz went 3-0 last week (He's now 18-15 on the season). |
| To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 12 -- and there are quite a few -- be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Thanksgiving grades: Packers earn an 'A+' for dominating Lions |
| It's not often you see every Thanksgiving game turn into a blowout, but that's exactly what happened yesterday. There was only one game that was even close on the scoreboard (Packers-Lions), but that game wasn't even that close. The Lions scored a garbage-time touchdown to make it look like there was some drama at the end, but trust me, there wasn't. |
| In Dallas, the Commanders got beat so bad the they fired their defensive coordinator (Jack Del Rio), which we'll touch on at the bottom of the newsletter. |
| Anyway, here are the grades we handed out for two of the three games that were played on Thanksgiving: |
| Packers 29-22 over Lions (Click here for full game stats) |
| Packers takeaway: It seems that something has finally clicked with Jordan Love, because he suddenly looks like one of the best quarterbacks in football. After dicing up the Chargers in Week 11, Love followed that up with an even more impressive performance against the Lions. Love opened the game with a 53-yard pass to Christian Watson on the first play from scrimmage and he only got better from there on a day where he threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers had seven different receivers catch at least one pass, including Watson, who finished with five catches for 94 yards and a TD. As good as the offense was, the defense was even better. Jonathan Owens had a breakout game: Not only did he lead the team in tackles, but he also returned a fumble for a TD in the first quarter that allowed Green Bay to jump out to a 20-6 lead. The Lions couldn't figure out how to slow down Rashan Gary, who sacked Jared Goff three times. This was a wildly impressive performance for a Packers team that is suddenly very much alive in the NFC playoff race. Grade: A+Lions takeaways: After looking nearly invincible through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Lions suddenly look like a very beatable team and a lot of that has to do with the play of Jared Goff. The Lions QB lost three fumbles, including one that was returned for a Packers TD in the first quarter. Goff now has six turnovers over his past two games, which is almost impossible to believe when you consider that he only turned the ball over five times in Detroit's first nine games. Goff didn't get any help from an offensive line that struggled against the Packers pass rush. The Lions also went 0-for-4 on fourth down. The most questionable fourth-down call came on a fourth-and-3 in the third quarter when Dan Campbell called for a fake punt from his own 23-yard line with the Lions only trailing 23-14 (The Packers would score a TD three plays later that effectively iced the game). Defensively, the Lions looked confused by almost everything the Packers did. It's possible they underestimated Jordan Love, but whatever the reason was, they got diced up for 268 yards and three touchdowns by the Packers QB. Grade: D- |
| Cowboys 45-10 over Commanders (Click here for full game stats) |
| Commanders takeaways: If Ron Rivera wasn't on the hot seat before this week, he almost certainly is now after watching his team get blown out in Dallas. Riverboat Ron wasn't wearing his riverboat hat in the first half. During the first quarter, the Commanders had a chance to take charge of the game, but they ended up punting twice from inside of Cowboys territory. In the second half, the Commanders went for it three times on fourth down, but they were already down double-digits by that point. The Commanders simply got outcoached, but it also didn't help that their defense got torched by Dak Prescott. Offensively, the Commanders had SEVEN drives that reached Cowboys territory, but they only came away with 10 points. With five losses in their past six games, it feels like the Commanders' season is over. Grade: FCowboys takeaways: The Cowboys probably didn't eat Thanksgiving dinner this year and that's because they feasted on the Commanders. The star of the show was Dak Prescott, who shredded Washington's defense for 331 yards and four touchdowns. The Cowboys QB, who didn't get sacked, had a lot of time to throw and he utilized that by hitting TEN different receivers with eight of those guys finishing with at least 20 yards. Defensively, the Cowboys didn't fully shut down the Commanders, but they stopped Washington on nearly every big play, including holding the Commanders to an 0-for-3 showing on fourth down. Johnathan Hankins (2 sacks) and Micah Parsons (1.5 sacks) led a pass rush that gave Sam Howell fits. DaRon Bland also iced the win when he came up with his NFL-record-setting fifth pick-six of the season in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys are looking more and more like a legit Super Bowl contender every week, and if they keep playing like this, this might be the season where they end their 28-year big game drought. Grade: A |
| If you want to check out my grades for Seahawks-49ers, you can do that here. |
| 3. Black Friday preview: Prepping you for Dolphins at Jets |
| For the first time ever, the NFL will be holding a Black Friday game and that will be going down at 3 p.m. ET today. The Dolphins (7-3) are a huge favorite, but they've struggled on the road this year, going 2-3. As for the Jets (4-6), their season isn't necessarily on the line in this game, but it kind of feels that way. |
| This game will be streaming on Amazon and ANYONE can watch. For every other Amazon game this season, you had to have a Prime subscription, but this game will be available for free to everyone at Amazon.com. |
| My good buddy Cody Benjamin put together our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the Dolphins can win: When you think of Miami's offense, you usually think of Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa and the passing attack, but the Dolphins also have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and if they're smart, they'll be using it a lot against the Jets. The Jets defense is surrendering 137.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 30th in the NFL. On the other hand, the Dolphins have the second-best rushing attack in the league with an average of 143 yards per game. If the Dolphin get things going on the ground, it's hard to see the Jets winning. Also, if the Dolphins can score just three touchdowns, that should be enough to beat a Jets team that is very bad at scoring points. Why the Jets can win: Like almost every Jets game this season, New York is going to need a huge game from its defense if it wants to win. The Jets are 3-0 this year when they force three or more turnovers, so if the opportunistic defense can force Tua Tagovailoa into making a few mistakes, that could open the door for New York to pull off the upset. If the Jets can get their ground game going, that would also be helpful. For one, that would allow the Jets to control the flow of the game while keeping Miami's offense off the field. Also, with Tim Boyle starting at QB, it's hard to imagine the Jets putting up big passing numbers, which is why the ground game will be so important. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Cody by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here's one prop I like: |
| ONE PROP I LIKE: Raheem Mostert OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-140). Mostert has gone over this number in two straight games, and it feels like he should be able to do it again while going up against a Jets defense that has had some serious trouble stopping the run. Also, De'Von Achane isn't expected to play for the Dolphins, which means Mostert should be getting the brunt of the work on the ground for Miami today. |
| My prime-time prop record is 16-9 this year. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
Cody's pick: Dolphins 26-16 over Jets
My pick: Dolphins 24-13 over Jets |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of our experts are taking the Dolphins to win, but only five of us think the Dolphins will cover as a 10-point favorite. |
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| 4. NFL Week 12 picks: Browns and Steelers both win thrillers |
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| I hope you're not tired of reading our picks yet, because we have even more of them coming at you right now. This batch will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. After a rough past during the middle of the season, have now put together a winning record in three straight weeks. |
| We went 3-2 against the spread last week (5-0 straight up), which means that heading into Week 12, we now have a 29-24-2 record against the spread with our picks that have been featured in the newsletter. |
| Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
| Pete Prisco: Saints (Pick'em) 24-20 over Falcons. From Prisco: "Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Saints have some injury issues. The quarterback situation isn't great for the Falcons, which is why I think the Saints will win it behind their defense." For the rest of Prisco's Week 12 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan: Eagles (-3.5) 27-23 over Bills. From Sullivan: "This could be a huge game for D'Andre Swift as he is set to face a Bills run defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry this season (fourth-most in the NFL). Philly is also 6-2-2 ATS this season, which gives them the highest cover percentage (75%) in the NFL." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 12 picks, be sure to click here.Jordan Dajani: Steelers (-1) 20-17 over Bengals. From Dajani: "I'm not going to pretend that firing Matt Canada will all of a sudden make Pittsburgh an offensive juggernaut, but I do think it's something that can spark the offense... The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five divisional games, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games. Give me Pittsburgh on the road." For the rest of Dajani's Week 12 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech: Browns (+1.5) 20-16 over Broncos. From me: "I don't care if the Broncos have won four games in a row, I'm still not sold on their offense and I have hard time seeing them score points against a Browns defense that has been shutting down everyone this season." For the rest of my Week 12 picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more Week 12 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBS Sports picks page here. |
| 5. Bold predictions for Week 12: Bengals top Steelers with Jake Browning |
| Since you're probably tired of picks at this point, we're going to spice things up by giving out some bold predictions, which are like picks, except spicier. Garrett Podell has five bold predictions for Week 12, and we're going to share three of them below. Last week, Garrett boldly predicted that the Browns would beat the Steelers without Deshaun Watson and that's exactly what happened. |
| Let's see what Garrett has in store for us this week. |
| Bold predictions for Week 12: |
| 1. Bengals start Jake Browning and still beat the Steelers. "Bengals running back Joe Mixon has a touchdown in four straight games, and his support -- along with wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase's -- will allow Browning to do just enough to beat out the Steelers woeful offensive attack."2. Odell Beckham Jr. hits the 100-yard mark in consecutive games for the first time since 2018. "After topping 100 yards in Week 11, Odell is going to do it again in Week 12 because the Ravens opponent is the Chargers, the owners of the league's worst passing defense (291.6 passing yards allowed per game) and the most plays of 25 or more yards allowed (34) in 2023."3. Bears end 12-game losing streak in NFC North against Vikings. "Minnesota blitzes on 47% of their defensive plays in 2023, the highest rate in the NFL. Fields averages 8.3 yards per pass attempt against the blitz this season, the sixth-highest figure in the league. Wideout DJ Moore, who averages 96.7 receiving yards per game and has scored six receiving touchdowns in Fields' seven starts in 2023, will put up that type of production while helping Fields beat the blitz and the Vikings." |
| Garrett has five bold predictions for Week 12, and you can check out all of them by clicking here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Commanders fire their defensive coordinator |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Jack Del Rio fired. Ron Rivera didn't get fired after the Commanders blowout loss on Thursday, but Del Rio did. The defensive coordinator, who had been with the team since 2020, was unceremoniously dumped less than 24 hours after watching his team give up 38 points to the Cowboys (Dallas had a pick-six to get to 45 points in the game). Defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer was also let go. According to NFL.com, Rivera will "presumably" take over defensive play-calling duties, but that's not set in stone yet. Rivera is squarely on the hot seat right now and it won't be surprising if he's also gone by mid-January. Derek Carr expected to play Sunday. The Saints QB suffered a concussion in Week 10, but after getting a bye to heal in Week 11, it appears that he's good to go for Sunday's game against the Falcons. Carr has been fully cleared to play, which means he should be the starter this week unless Dennis Allen shocks everyone by going with Jameis Winston.
Mac Jones might be starting, but he's not sure. Bill Belichick has been extremely secretive about who his starting QB will be on Sunday, but as it turns out, it looks like he's going to be sticking with Mac Jones. During an interview this week, Jones gave an interesting answer when asked if he would be the starter. "That's the plan, I think." So there you have it, Jones thinks he'll be the starter, but he doesn't sound 100% sure. Two-time Super Bowl winner dies at age 56. Former Broncos defensive lineman Harald Hasselbach died this week after battling cancer for more than six months. Hasselbach spent his entire seven-year career (1994-2000) with the Broncos during a span that saw him win two Super Bowls with the team. Hasselbach also won a Grey Cup while playing in the CFL with Calgary in 1992, which put him on the very short list of players who have won both a Grey Cup and a Super Bowl. |
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| | | | | College Football on CBS | | NFL on CBS | Saturday at 3:30 PM ET, the SEC on CBS features number #8 Alabama versus Auburn in the next chapter of the Iron Bowl. Continue your holiday weekend football on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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| | Sunday, finish off the holiday weekend with an NFL on CBS doubleheader featuring an AFC North rivalry between the Steelers and Bengals. Then it's a showdown in the City of Brotherly Love when Josh Allen and the Bills face Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. It all begins at 12:00 PM ET with the NFL Today on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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