By Michael Shepherd - June 14, 2022
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Good morning from Augusta. It is primary day in Maine. Polls are open everywhere until 8 p.m.

What we're watching today

We have a guide to the storylines that we are watching in a deeply uncertain Tuesday election. The Associated Press has a rundown of the biggest races. The BDN will carry results, race calls with our partners at Decision Desk HQ and coverage tonight. Our results page is being finalized but lives here.

There have been developments in the top races overnight. Here's my notebook on what's happening on the ground.

An underdog gets a boost from the nation's dominant conservative commentator. It was unlikely, but the Republican primary in Maine's 2nd District for the right to face Rep. Jared Golden may have quickly turned into the state's most interesting Tuesday election. Former Rep. Bruce Poliquin should win this going away, but Caratunk Selectman Liz Caruso may be taking a race to him despite raising only a scant amount of money.

She got a boost on Monday evening, when she appeared on conservative host Tucker Carlson's show on Fox News. There are some connections between the two. Caruso gained the political profile she has as a critic of the Central Maine Power Co. corridor, which Carlson also prominently opposed. He films his show for part of the year in Bryant Pond, where he has a home.

"Congress is filled with people who are exactly the same, they're from the same world with the same attitudes, and the parties don't actually have that much that separates them," Carlson said before introducing Caruso last night.

Almost nobody in Republican politics thinks Caruso is going to win. People have told me she could get anywhere from 10 percent to 45 percent. But one plugged-in operative said today they thought this result might be the biggest surprise of the night and could be close. Carlson might nudge it more.

Democrats should win a Hancock County special election, but don't call it a bellwether. Many of those same Republicans are pessimistic about their chances in the special election between former Sen. Brian Langley, R-Ellsworth, Rep. Nicole Grohoski, D-Ellsworth, and Green Ben Meiklejohn of Seal Harbor. Grohoski looks to be in position to win given a big spending and absentee ballot gap in favor of her party.

Republicans still think they are primed to take this seat in November given Langley's profile and the fact that Grohoski will likely not even take a vote in the seat between now and the general election. They pulled up in this race, spending about one-tenth of what Democrats did.

Both parties have pitched this as a potential bellwether for November, but the low turnout expected on Tuesday probably makes this a much different race than that one. Democrats should win. If they do not, it portends huge issues. Republicans are the ones who can take a punt here, but their poor absentee ballot showing is a liability that could haunt them in close November races.

These are the under-the-radar races that you should watch tonight. The biggest of the rest of the races include a Cumberland County district attorney primary on the Democratic side that has caught megadonor George Soros' eye and a Maine Senate primary in the Orono area featuring progressive activist Mike Tipping and restaurant owner Abe Furth.

But we're watching a solid list of other primaries tonight, including a three-way Republican one subject to ranked-choice voting in the Waterville area in which Republican leaders are hoping Rep. Mike Perkins, R-Oakland, goes on to face former Waterville and Winslow Fire Chief Dave LaFountain, a solid Democratic recruit. In a Senate district mostly lying east of Bangor, Rep. Peter Lyford, R-Eddington, is facing mortgage broker Robert Cross of Dedham.

On the Democratic side, there are a number of interesting primaries, including one featuring Maine Democratic Party Chair Drew Gattine, a former state representative from Westbrook who may not even be the favored candidate in a district now tilted toward Scarborough. He faces Scarborough Town Councilor Jean-Marie Caterina.

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Campaign news and notes

— Maine politicians will be out and about on primary day. Gov. Janet Mills will be voting in her hometown of Farmington at 10:30 a.m., her campaign said. Poliquin will do a morning swing between polling places in Lewiston and Augusta, ending the day at Season's Restaurant in Bangor after polls close.

— The final messages from the major state political parties ahead of Tuesday's special Maine Senate election were dire. Democrats said in a Monday fundraising email that a Langley win would jeopardize "our work to protect Roe, same-sex marriage, and more." Republicans hit Grohoski and said "Democrats have failed us and we need to create change at the ballot box."

— Results should come in relatively quickly across Maine tonight since there is little on the ballots in most places. We are expecting a healthy amount of cities and towns to report results between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. Calls in some of the most competitive races could soon follow. Portland, which has ranked-choice school board races, will run tabulations on Wednesday.

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What we're reading

— Rep. Jeff Gifford, R-Lincoln, a longtime state lawmaker and selectman in his hometown, died on Sunday at 75. It is the chamber's fourth death this year.

— Maine's housing affordability crisis is also hitting mobile homes. The median price of mobile and modular homes in Cumberland County jumped from a median value of $67,000 in early 2019 to $168,000 early this year.

— The owner of a Jonesport nursing home that illegally barred a 79-year-old transgender woman from living there has adopted a comprehensive nondiscrimination policy in a settlement with state regulators.

— Forever chemicals increasingly being found in Maine land and water have been linked to another health condition in women.

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Photo of the day

A waxing gibbous moon is seen at 98 percent full as it rises near the Nubble Light, Monday, June 13, 2022, in York. The moon will reach its full stage on Tuesday, during a phenomenon known as a Supermoon because its proximity to Earth, and it is also labeled as the "Strawberry Moon" because it is the full moon at strawberry harvest time. (AP photo by Julio Cortez)

📷 Lead photo: Liz Caruso, a candidate for Maine's 2nd Congressional District, speaks at the Republican state convention on April 30, 2022, in Augusta. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

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