Can CMH keep this up?

Good Morning Voornaam,

If you want to learn more about company valuations and how financial data can be used in making better business decisions, then the next bizval webinar is definitely for you. Your favourite ghost will be presenting a segment on how the bizval valuation methodology works, with bizval CEO Graham Stephen and special guests from Syft Analytics making up the rest of the panel for the Q&A session. Attendance for this webinar next week Tuesday is free, but you need to register here>>>

There are a few podcasts that should be on your list to get through this week:

  • Ghost Wrap (brought to you by Mazars) is a fast-paced update on Glencore, Anglo American, Sibany e-Stillwater, Capital Appreciation, MTN Nigeria and Prosus. Find it here>>>
  • Ghost Stories brings you an in-depth discussion with Nico Katzke (Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix) on the classic debate for South African investors: offshore vs. local exposure. The answer is never quite as clear as some in the market would have you believe. For an objective view from a professional who I greatly admire, listen to this episode>>>
  • Magic Markets gives you a way to understand mo re about alternative assets this week, with Dino Zuccollo of Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management joined by Matthew Norwood-Young and Peter Little of Anchor Capital. We had a well-rounded discussion on the use of alternative assets in portfolio construction and the way clients tend to think about this in the current environment. Enjoy it here>>>

And if you want to learn more about the agriculture sector, the latest Unlock the Stock event featured the management team of TWK Investments. Brought to you by A2X, you can watch the recording here>>>

Purring like a V8

CMH's earnings trajectory in a post-COVID world has been extraordinary. I would be genuinely surprised if anyone had anticipated just how well things would go, with an acceleration in earnings that dwarfs pre-pandemic performance. I just can't believe the backdrop against which this has been achieved, with rampant inflation in basic consumer goods and a sharp increase in energy costs.

Still, consumers are clearly still buying cars and renting cars. That's a very important nuance, as CMH's business has substantial exposure to the car rental industry. With Uber becoming as reliable as Transnet, that's not a bad place to be.

For more details on the CMH performance, as well as notes on the collapse in Astral's profitability, Aveng banking the Trident disposal, a strong trading update out of Calgro M3, a quarterly update from MTN Uganda and news from Rebosis on the garage sale of its property portfolio, read Ghost Bites this morning>>>

Speaking of V8s...oil is still falling

If, like me, your car is long on cylinders and short on efficiency metrics, then you'll be thrilled to learn that the oil price has fallen for the third straight day. The prospect of a US recession and associated global effects is curbing demand. OPEC+ members will of course try to halt the slide by cutting production, but will it work? I hope not.

TreasuryONE reminds us that all eyes are on Jerome Powell and the Fed in a week with a rates decision (a hike of 25bps as expected last night) and an all-important press conference. There have been mixed data releases from the US jobs market, with ADP job numbers beating expectations thanks to private sector hiring, albeit at slower pay growth. The JOLTS number disappointed this week, adding to the worries about growth. As part of the latest hike, the Fed noted that rates are "sufficiently restrictive" which points to this being perhaps the last hike in this cycle.

The rand is sitting squarely in the middle of the R18.00 to R18.50 level. For more details on the key macroeconomic drivers for our currency, you should watch the latest video from the team at TreasuryONE and you should definitely subscribe to their YouTube channel.

Have a great day!

Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | Aveng | Calgro M3 | CMH | MTN Uganda | Rebosis)

CMH released stellar results with fascinating segmentals. Calgro M3 gave the market a nice surprise, Aveng has banked the Trident disposal and Astral's profitability has been crushed. MTN Uganda and Rebosis also released updates.

TWK Investments returned to the Unlock the Stock platform to discuss tough recent numbers and the outlook for the group.

Unlock the Stock: TWK Investments
 

This week's Ghost Wrap starts with a heavy mining focus, takes a meander through fintech and telecoms and ends up at the simplest way of all to unlock value. Ghost Wrap is brought to you by Mazars.

 

In Episode 13 of Ghost Stories, Nico Katzke of Satrix returned to the platform to discuss a variety of topics around a central theme that is critical to all South Africans: the local vs. offshore debate.

 

Dino Zuccollo from Westbrooke is joined by Matthew Norwood-Young and Peter Little of Anchor Capital, bringing the number of guests on this show to three! We had a well-rounded discussion on alternative assets and their place in portfolios.

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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