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| Friday, January 24, 2025 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| With the AFC Championship and NFC title game coming up on Sunday, the Raiders and Jaguars are the last two teams I thought we'd be talking about today, but we're going to be talking about both of them and that's because they both decided to hire a new coach. |
| The Raiders brought in the oldest coach in NFL history while the Jaguars hired a coach who turned them down before changing his mind. Seems about par for the course for those two teams. |
| Not only will we be taking a look at those hires, but we'll also be thoroughly breaking down the conference title games in today's newsletter. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Raiders hire Pete Carroll: Four things to know |
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| After a one-year hiatus, Pete Carroll is going to be returning to the NFL. With Tom Brady running the coaching search, the Raiders have decided to bring in a coach who has a proven track record of success in the NFL, and he did that on Friday by hiring Carroll. |
| Here are four things to know about his hire: |
| Carroll has been highly successful in the NFL. The Raiders will be the fourth NFL team that Carroll has coached, joining the Seahawks, Jets and Patriots. Carroll has gone 170-120-1 during his 18 seasons as a head coach and he led two of his three teams to the playoffs (Seahawks, Patriots). During his time in Seattle, he led the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowls, a span that included a Super Bowl XLVIII win over the Broncos.Carroll will become the oldest NFL coach ever. The oldest person to ever coach in an NFL game was Romeo Crennel when he was 73 years and 199 days for his final game as Houston's interim coach in 2020. Carroll will break that record when he coaches his first game with the Raiders in September. Carroll is currently 73 years old, but will turn 74 on Sept. 15, which will be right around when the Raiders play their second game of the season. Why the Raiders likely weren't worried about Carroll's age. With Tom Brady running the search, he's definitely not someone who is going to worry about the age of his coach. During Brady's final season with the Patriots, Bill Belichick was already 67. Brady then signed with the Buccaneers in 2020 to play with a head coach in Bruce Arians, who was even older than that (he was 68). Brady had success with both coaches, so he probably wasn't too worried about Carroll's age. The AFC West is now loaded with good coaches. Carroll will now join a division that easily has the best list of head coaches in the NFL. Not only does the AFC West now have Carroll, but the division also has Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton. Those four coaches have combined to win five of the past 15 Super Bowls. They've also combined to go to eight of the past 15 big games. |
| The Raiders need a new culture instilled, and Carroll feels like the perfect person to do that. You can check out our full story on Carroll's hiring here. |
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| 2. NFC Championship game picks: It might not be smooth sailing for the Eagles |
| Now that we have the Carroll news out of the way, we're going to cut right to the chase here and give you our picks for both conference title games, starting with the NFC Championship. Cody Benjamin was kind enough to round up all the picks, so thanks for that Cody. No one ever returns any of my emails, so it was probably for the best that Cody handled things. |
NFC Championship
Commanders at Eagles, 3 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Eagles (-6) |
| EAGLES PICKS |
| John Breech: Eagles 27-24 over Commanders I thought the Eagles were the better team in both of regular-season games and I'm not sure anything is going to change this time around. I mean, they almost won the second game with KENNY PICKETT AT QUARTERBACK for three quarters. I fully expect Saquon Barkley to put the Eagles on his back and carry them to the Super Bowl.Cody Benjamin: Eagles 27-22 over Commanders. If anyone should scare the Eagles, it's probably the unshakably dynamic Jayden Daniels. But Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and their defense are pros at crunch-time ball, and they'll once again have the advantage of working in front of a roaring home crowd. Doug Clawson: Eagles 30-21 over Commanders. Too much Saquon, too much Philly defense and home-field advantage as Jayden Daniels' dream season comes to an end. Bryan DeArdo: Eagles 23-20 over Commanders. Jayden Daniels gives the Eagles everything they can handle, but in the end, Saquon Barkley is just too much for Washington's defense; he advances and needs just one more win to become the third rushing champion in NFL history to win a Super Bowl. Jared Dubin: Eagles 23-20 over Commanders. Philly can slow any game down and just keep constricting the opposing team until it submits, and I see that happening here.Tyler Sullivan: Eagles 27-24 Commanders. Jayden Daniels' brilliance will keep this game close, but Saquon Barkley is the game-wrecker. The Commanders are soft against the run, which means Barkley could remarkably flirt with another 200 rushing-yard game for the second straight week. |
| COMMANDERS PICKS |
| Pete Prisco: Commanders 27-26 over Eagles. The Commanders will do a much better job slowing down Saquon Barkley, while Jayden Daniels continues to put up big numbers. He will become the first rookie to take his team to the Super Bowl with another impressive showing.Jordan Dajani: Commanders 24-20 over Eagles. Washington wins because it has the better quarterback.Will Brinson: Commanders 24-21 over Eagles. Jayden Daniels' special season rolls on as he hits Dyami Brown for a pair of touchdowns to take down a division rival.Joel Magaraci: Commanders 35-31 over Eagles. The bigger the stage, the more unflappable rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels becomes. |
| As you can see, this was nearly split with the Eagles getting just six of 10 votes despite being a heavy favorite. This game will mark the first time since 1986 that two NFC East teams have faced off in the conference title game. This will mark the 20th time that two division rivals have faced each other in the conference title game and the home team has gone 14-5 in the previous 19 meetings (More details here). |
| 3. AFC Championship picks: Confidence high in the Chiefs to get to third straight Super Bowl |
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| All right, now that we have the NFC title-game picks out of the way, it's time for the main course. The NFL has decided to save the best for last on Sunday with the Chiefs and Bills playing in the second game (Note: The NFL didn't actually save the best for last, it was total luck. The AFC plays the late game every other year, so next year, the AFC title game will kick off at 3 p.m. ET no matter who's playing in it). |
| Let's check out the picks. |
AFC Championship
Bills at Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Chiefs (-2) |
| CHIEFS PICKS |
| John Breech: Chiefs 26-23 over Bills. I can't pick against history and the Chiefs seem hell-bent on making NFL history this year by becoming the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row.Cody Benjamin: Chiefs 24-22 over Bills. The heart says Josh Allen finally rides a balanced lineup to the biggest stage, but the head says Patrick Mahomes refuses to let it happen, somehow, some way.Doug Clawson: Chiefs 27-24 over Bills. Same old story. Until I see otherwise, I believe the Chiefs are going to continue to win close games.Jordan Dajani: Chiefs 26-23 over Bills. Patrick Mahomes is 1-4 vs. Josh Allen in the regular season, and 3-0 vs. him in the playoffs.Jared Dubin: Chiefs 24-23 over Bills. I'm not picking against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid until somebody actually beats them. Jeff Kerr: Chiefs 27-24 over Bills. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over since November. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are nearly unbeatable in Arrowhead Stadium, and it's hard to pick against them this time of year. Joel Magaraci: Chiefs 24-21 over Bills. The Chiefs have seemingly mastered the ability to close out tight games.Tyler Sullivan: Chiefs 30-17 over Bills. The Bills won the regular-season matchup, and Kansas City will win in the playoffs. That's how this rivalry has gone and will continue to go here. Buffalo's weakness on third down will be the tipping point. |
| BILLS PICKS |
| Pete Prisco: Bills 24-23 over Chiefs. It's Josh Allen's time. He will finally beat Mahomes in the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl. The game ends with Von Miller getting a sack to close it out with ... 13 seconds left.Will Brinson: Bills 27-24 over Chiefs. Josh Allen finally beats the big bad man, like Michael Jordan finally taking down the Pistons.Bryan DeArdo: Bills 27-24 over Chiefs. The fourth time's the charm against Kansas City for Buffalo, which will punch its first Super Bowl ticket since 1993. The Chiefs join the 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers and 1994 Cowboys as back-to-back champs that fell one game short of a third straight trip to the big game. |
| Everyone here is predicting a one-score game, except for Tyler Sullivan, who's predicting a Chiefs blowout win. To see the full story, click here. |
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| 4. Bold predictions for conference title games |
| After giving you some bold predictions for the divisional round last week, Garrett Podell is back with five more for the conference title games. |
| Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for this weekend: |
| 1. Bills upset Chiefs at Arrowhead. "Patrick Mahomes is 21-1 in his past 22 starts with the only loss coming in a 30-21 defeat at the Bills in Week 11 this season. Josh Allen and Co. are going to do it again and finally topple the Chiefs in the postseason. Why? Because they don't commit turnovers as a team. Buffalo's eight turnovers this season are tied for the fewest by any team since 1933. They are also the first time since 1933, when turnovers began being tracked, to go their first 19 games without losing the turnover battle in a game against their opponent." |
| 2. Eagles' Jahan Dotson will score a TD against his former team. "The Eagles acquired wide receiver Jahan Dotson and a 2025 fifth-round pick from Washington in exchange for three picks (a 2025 third and two 2025 seventh-round selections) back in August (Dotson was selected 16th overall by the Commanders in the 2022 NFL Draft). ... It wouldn't be mind-blowing if Nick Sirianni went to offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and had him put plays designed to highlight Dotson into the red zone component of the team's game plan." |
| Podell made a total of five bold predictions for Championship Sunday, and you can check out all of them here. |
| 5. Biggest concern for each of the final four teams |
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| There will be four teams playing on Sunday and all of them have at least one thing they should be concerned about going into the weekend. With that in mind, Cody Benjamin decided to highlight one concern for each team. Let's take a look at what he came up with: |
| Chiefs: Are they cutting it too loose? "On one hand, the Chiefs are unmatched when it comes to finishing games, excelling at both situational strategy and execution. And yet it stands to reason that the more you play with fire, the more likely you are to get burned."Bills: Can they overcome the aura of Arrowhead? "The Chiefs are a force of inevitability on their home turf, going 13-2 in home playoff matchups since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018. Josh Allen, meanwhile, is still searching for his first playoff win on the road, entering with an 0-3 career mark."Eagles: How healthy is Jalen Hurts? "Two years ago, the Eagles entered the playoffs with the same question hanging over their title aspirations, and Hurts played through a banged-up shoulder to reach -- and nearly win -- the Super Bowl. This time around, it's his knee, which could severely hamper his ability to draw at least some rushing attention away from the MVP-level Saquon Barkley." Commanders: Can Jayden Daniels offset the loss of offensive lineman Sam Cosmi? "Lost in the magic of their divisional-round upset of the Detroit Lions was a season-ending injury to Cosmi, who'd quietly graded out as one of this year's top 25 interior pass blockers, per PFF. Daniels has an effortless ability to extend plays or move the chains with his legs, but now up against a stingy Eagles front that includes the ferocious Jalen Carter, he might need to be especially quick with his decisions." |
| You can check out Cody's full story here |
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| 6. Jaguars coaching search goes off the rails: Liam Coen hired after bizarre search finally ends |
| If the NFL were to hand out an award for the most dysfunctional coaching search of 2025, that award would definitely go to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's been a bizarre 24 hours for the Jaguars, who just hired Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen as their new head coach. And yes, that's the same Liam Coen who decided he didn't want the job on Wednesday, but ended up taking it anyway. |
| Let's go through the timeline of everything that happened: |
| JAN. 6: Jaguars fire Doug Pederson, but keep Trent Baalke. On Jan. 6, the Jags made the decision to fire Pederson, which wasn't a huge surprise, but in a shocking move, they did decide to keep Baalke. At the time, there were multiple reports that suggested the Jags would have a tough time finding a new coach if they decided to keep Baalke, but they ignored those warnings and kept him anyway. JAN. 20: Ben Johnson passes on the Jaguars' job. The Jags interviewed Ben Johnson and actually liked him, but he had no interest in the job, because he didn't like their "setup," according to The Athletic. That's the polite way of saying that there was no way he was going to work with Baalke. JAN. 22: Liam Coen decides not to show up for second interview with the team. Coen was scheduled to have his second interview for the Jaguars' coaching job on Wednesday, but in a stunner, he backed out of the interview and decided to stay with the Buccaneers. Coen's first interview with the team came on Jan. 15, and it became pretty clear that the Jaguars were interested in him when they asked for a second interview. Why Coen snubbed the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Coen didn't want to work with Baalke, so that was one reason he snubbed the Jags. Another reason is because he got a huge offer from the Bucs: According to Sports Illustrated , the Buccaneers offered him a three-year deal on Monday that was going to make him the highest-paid coordinator in NFL history. The new contract came with one catch: If Coen wanted to sign it, then he wouldn't be allowed to go to Jacksonville for a second interview, so that combined with the fact he didn't want to work with Baalke is likely why he called off the Wednesday meeting with the Jaguars. JAN. 22: Baalke gets fired. Just hours after Coen snubbed the Jaguars, Shad Khan finally realized that it was going to be impossible to hire a good candidate with Baalke running the show, so in a total stunner, he FIRED his general manager. JAN. 23: Jaguars make second effort to land Coen, who ghosted the Bucs. With Baalke out of the way, the Jags called Coen back and asked him to reconsider a second meeting. At that point, Coen was clearly interested and the two sides started negotiating a contract on Thursday night. However, Coen never told the Buccaneers about his plans. The Bucs tried to reach Coen for several hours on Thursday, but they got ghosted. Coen eventually talked to Bucs coach Todd Bowles early Thursday evening, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported. JAN. 23: Coen finally gets hired. After a dramatic 48 hours, Coen finally got hired for the Jags' head coaching late Thursday night. According to The Athletic, the Jags are going to let Coen pick the team's new general manager and they're also going to pay him a lot of money, so basically, it was an offer Coen couldn't refuse. This will be Coen's first head-coaching job. The 39-year-old Coen did a fantastic job in Tampa Bay during the 2024 season, but he definitely comes with some risk. Last season was the only time that he's ever called plays at the NFL level, so now, he's likely going to do that in Jacksonville, plus add all the other head-coaching duties to his plate. Coordinators can sometimes get overwhelmed with the extra duties, which is why you sometimes see them flame out so fast. JAN. 23: Robert Saleh was supposed to interview on Thursday. To make things even weirder, the Jaguars were actually supposed to interview Saleh on Thursday, but Saleh ended up not going once he realized that the Jags were targeting Coen. With Jacksonville no longer an option, Saleh will likely end up back in San Francisco as the 49ers defensive coordinator, according to The Athletic. |
| You can read our full story on Coen's hiring here and you can check out the full timeline here. |
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| | | | | AFC Championship | | PGA Tour | Come one, come all, it's happening again... Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meet in the postseason with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Watch Bills vs. Chiefs this Sunday at 6:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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| | The PGA Tour makes its return to CBS with the Farmers Insurance Open TODAY at 5 ET and tomorrow at 4 ET for the Final Round on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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