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| Tuesday, October 3, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Before we start things off today, I would like everyone to know that instead of sleeping last night, I spent six hours writing a 12-page letter to Roger Goodell begging him to never put the Giants on national television ever again. The letter was originally 117 pages, but I condensed it down to 12 because that's how many losses Daniel Jones now has in prime time. |
| Over the course of his career, Jones is now 1-12 in night games, which is the worst record in NFL history for anyone with at least 10 starts. Anyway, we'll be handing out grades from the Giants' 24-3 loss, plus Pete Prisco will be unveiling his Power Rankings and I'll be making some early Week 5 picks. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It's the perfect gift to get for your favorite football-loving friend at the start of the season. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's Show: Early bets for Week 5 |
| With Week 4 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 5 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus Emory Hunt and Alex "PropStarz" Selesnick. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite bets for Week 5 and we're going to look at a couple of those below. |
| Brinson: Saints at Patriots UNDER 40 points. Brinson doesn't see a lot of points being scored in this game. "Two teams that don't want to pass the ball. If you have Derek Carr and his bummed shoulder against Mac Jones in a game with two pretty good defenses, the under is a great look here to me."Mox: Texans team total over 20.5 (vs. Falcons). Katie likes the fact that Houston will be playing a Falcons defense that's just getting back from London (The Falcons decided not to take their bye after playing in London in Week 4). "Defenses coming back from London just aren't as tough coming up on their next opponent, so the teams they're facing seem to do a little better. I'm hammering the over on the Texans team total. The Falcons are coming back from London, they're a little gassed and the Texans offense has been cooking." |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 5, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Monday night grades after Seahawks' 24-3 win over Giants: |
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| For the third time this year, the New York Giants played in a prime-time game, and for the third time this year, the New York Giants got blown out in a prime-time game. The Seahawks topped the Giants 24-3 on Monday, which means New York has now been outscored 94-15 in its three prime-time games this year. Hopefully, the NFL takes this as a sign not to put them in prime time anymore. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| SEAHAWKS GRADE: A- |
| This game was a defensive masterpiece by Seattle. The Seahawks set the defensive tone for the game by making a fourth-down stop on New York's first possession and then things only got better for them from there. The unit forced a fumble in the first half that set up a 7-yard TD drive and then Devon Witherspoon followed that up in the second half with a 97-yard pick six. And if that's not enough, the Seahawks also sacked Daniel Jones 10 times with two of those coming from Witherspoon. The Seahawks defense seems to be getting better every week and if they keep playing like this, there's no reason this team won't be battling for wild card spot in January. |
| Seahawks notes |
| The sack attack is back. The Seahawks racked up 11 sacks, which tied the franchise record for most sacks in a single game. The team had four different players -- Bobby Wagner, Devon Witherspoon, Jordyn Brooks, Uchenna Nwosu -- record at least two sacks, marking the first time in franchise history that four players recorded multiple sacks in the same game. They also became just the fifth team in NFL history to pull of the feat and first since 1987. |
| GIANTS GRADE: D- |
| Going into this game, Daniel Jones had a history of struggling in prime time and he lived up to that reputation on Monday night. Jones had two back-breaking turnovers, including a 97-yard pick six in the third quarter that effectively put the game away. Although Jones was bad, it wasn't his completely his fault that the offense was sloppy. He got no help from his offensive line, which was completely overmatched by the Seahawks' pass rush on a night where Jones was sacked 10 times (The Giants were sacked 11 times overall). The Giants offense has a lot of problems right now and the team is going to hope that the return of Saquon Barkley will help fix them. |
| Giants notes |
| Giants are having scoring issues. In two home games this season, the Giants have scored just three points, which is the fewest points that they've scored through two homes in franchise history. The previous low was 10, which came all the way back in 1971. The Giants have also been outscored by 68 points in the first half this season, which is the worst first half showing through four weeks since the Bengals were also outscored by 68 points in 2002. The point here is that this offense is bad and there doesn't seem to be an easy fix. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 5 |
| As we get ready to head into Week 5, it seems that we finally have some normalcy atop Pete Prisco's Power Rankings. For the first time all year, the top three teams are the same as they were last week and all three teams are in the exact same spot that they were in last week. Of course, that's the only part of this week's power rankings that didn't change, because after the top three, there was total chaos. In the next 20 spots (Four through 23), not a single team is ranked where they were last week. |
| Anyway, here's a look at Prisco's top five teams heading into Week 5: |
49ers (Same as last week) Eagles (Same as last week) Chiefs (Same as last week) Bills (Moved up one spot from last week)
Cowboys (Moved up one spot from last week) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
For the second straight week, the biggest jump went to the Houston Texans. After moving up 12 spots last week, the Texans made another big jump this week with Prisco moving them up seven spots. After beating the Steelers, the Texans made the move from 19th to 12th. In news that might surprise you, they are now the highest ranked team in the AFC South. The Jaguars also moved up seven spots following their win in London, going from 20th to 13th. In the NFC, the Rams and Buccaneers tied for the biggest jump with both teams moving up six spots. The Bucs made the move from 16th to 10th following their win over New Orleans while the Rams made the jump from 23rd to 17th following their OT win over the Colts. The biggest tumble in this week's rankings went to the Steelers. Prisco is clearly not a fan of Matt Canada. After watching the Steelers score just six points in a 30-6 loss to Houston, Prisco dropped them seven spots in his rankings, from 11th down to 18th. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. Last week, the title of worst team belonged to the Bears, and this week, it still belongs to the Bears. Although Chicago did jump out to a 28-7 lead against Denver, Prisco was not impressed enough to move them out of the cellar. The 0-4 Bears are ranked one spot behind the NFL's other winless team, Carolina.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 5 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
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| 4. Breech's Week 5 picks: Both undefeated teams lose |
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| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| This is the part of the newsletter where I give you three picks for the upcoming week and since I'm never wrong, those three picks will almost always end up being correct. Just kidding, that last part isn't true. I'm wrong sometimes. For instance, I went 13-3 with my picks last week. That might be good for some people, but I won't be happy until I finish at least one week with a 16-0 record, at which point, I will retire and move to the Caribbean. |
| With that in mind, here are three of my picks for the Week 5: |
| Philadelphia (4-0) at L.A. Rams (2-2): This Eagles defense isn't as good as it was last year, especially in the secondary. Through four weeks, the Eagles have given up nine TD passes, which is the third-most in the NFL. The problem for the Eagles is that their struggling pass defense gets to face a suddenly revitalized Matthew Stafford, who will be throwing to the most uncoverable receiver in football this year (Puka Nacua). PICK: Rams 27-24 over Eagles. Dallas (3-1) at San Francisco (4-0): This is a big game and the Cowboys almost always choke big games, so my first inclination here was to take the 49ers, but the Cowboys were my pick this year to get to the Super Bowl out of the NFC so I'm going to stay on their bandwagon until it goes off a cliff, which could very well happen this week. PICK: Cowboys 27-24 over 49ers.Green Bay (2-2) at Las Vegas (1-3): This game will mark the first time since 1987 that the NFL will have a brotherly kicking duel. On one side, we'll have Anders Carlson kicking for the Packers. On the other side, we'll have Daniel Carlson kicking for the Raiders. The only fitting way for this game to end is with a game-winning field goal and I'm going to say Daniel gets it. PICK: Raiders 22-19 over Packers. |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 5, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL Week 4: Overreaction or reality |
| Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and especially when it comes to the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL this week to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Situation: The Bears should dump Matt Eberflus.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Something needs to be done in Chicago if the Bears want to turn things around. The Bears blew a 21-point lead, matching the largest blown lead in franchise history... Eberflus was part of the collapse, going for it on fourth-and-1 at the Broncos' 18 instead of kicking a field goal with 2:52 left in a 28-28 game. The Bears were stuffed, and the ball was taken out of Fields' hands. Eberflus likely won't last the season. He probably shouldn't be the head coach next week." |
Situation: Eagles are the best team in the NFC.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "The Eagles are 4-0 for the second consecutive season, but the reigning NFC champions aren't dominating opponents like last year. The Eagles are one of two unbeaten teams left and have a lot of talent, but they are trying to piece everything together." |
Situation: The NFL's offensive game has passed by Bill Belichick.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Belichick can still coach defense with the best of them, but offense rules in today's NFL. The Patriots haven't had that offensive spark since Tom Brady left in 2019, something to ponder when debating if Brady actually was the one that made Belichick one of the greatest head coaches ever. Belichick can still coach, but he just doesn't seem to get the right offensive pieces on his team." |
| There are plenty more overreactions from Week 4 and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Patriots star likely out for season |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Matthew Judon likely to miss the rest of the season. The Patriots likely won't have their star defensive player for the rest of the season after Judon was diagnosed with a torn biceps. Judon will be undergoing surgery soon and he's hoping he can get back before the end of the season, but due to the nature of the injury, the odds will be stacked against him. You can read more about Judon's situation here. NFL announces first flex of the season. The NFL has made a minor schedule change for Week 6: The game between the Lions and Buccaneers has been flexed from 1 p.m. ET to 4:25 p.m. ET. I never thought we'd live in a world where Lions-Buccaneers would get flexed, but here we are.
NFL continues to feel the Taylor Swift effect. With Swift in attendance on Sunday night, the Chiefs' win over the Jets scored 27 million viewers, which made it the most-watched Sunday show since Super Bowl LVII in February. The NFL is probably now going to invite Taylor to every game. Controversy in Cleveland. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski revealed on Monday that Deshaun Watson was medically cleared to play. Despite the clearance, Watson decided to sit after testing his shoulder. It was an interesting nugget of information for Stefanski to reveal because there's no upside. As others have noted, it's a quick way to lose the locker room and there's a good chance fans in Cleveland will now start questioning his toughness. Jonathan Taylor set to return to practice this week. After four weeks on IR, Taylor is now eligible to return to practice and that's actually going to happen this week. Although Taylor wanted to be traded during the offseason, Colts coach Shane Steichen says the running back is "super excited" to be back with his Colts teammate. If Taylor plays like he did in 2021, this could be a huge boost for a Colts team that's currently tied for first in the AFC South. |
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