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Friday, February 16, 2024
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! 
It has now been five days since the Super Bowl, which means things are likely going to start slowing down around here for the next few weeks. JUST KIDDING, THERE'S NO SLOW TIME ON THE NFL CALENDAR. Now that the Super Bowl is over, we'll be going straight into the combine and then into free agency and then into the draft and then into OTAs and then the schedule release and then maybe we'll get a two-and-a-half day break from news in June, but I doubt it. 
With NFL free agency now less than a month away, we'll be focusing on that a lot more over the next few days, and we'll be starting that today with a look at the top 25 free agents on the offensive side of the ball. We'll also take a look at the trend that Brock Purdy needs to buck if he wants to get the 49ers back to the Super Bowl.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don't even have to tell all of your friends; just tell two of your friends and I'll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 
1. Today's show: Early pick to win Super Bowl LIX
Since Super Bowl LVIII just ended, you're probably already wondering who's going to win Super Bowl LIX and so are we, so we decided to talk about that on the podcast. For today's episode, Katie Mox was joined by Will Brinson and SportsLine gambling guru, R.J. White, and the three of them spent some serious time talking about the teams they like to win the Lombardi Trophy next season. 
  • Favorite value from the top of the board: Chiefs (+650). "A lot of people aren't going to be betting futures this early," White said. "They're going to wait until closer to the season, but if it's still around +650, I'm taking the Chiefs."
  • Favorite Tier 2 pick (10-to-1 odds or worse): Bills (+1100).  "I'm not super optimistic as a Bills fan. It feels like the Super Bowl window might be closing, but they still have one of the best quarterbacks on the planet there," White said. "You have to figure that even with Josh Allen's cap hit rising, they should have better health on the defensive side. I'm going to give them a shot." White thinks the Bills are one of the few teams that can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs. 
  • Favorite long-shot pick (25-to-1 odds or worse): Packers (+2500).  "I'm going to go with the Packers," White said. "They might have a star quarterback in Jordan Love. You saw what he did down the stretch last season. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league, performance-wise, and he was dealing with a lot of injuries. He was throwing to backups and he was getting it done. I think Jordan Love could be a top-10 or even top-five quarterback in this league based on his performance down the stretch. If you have that and you have a defense that I think is going to be much better last year -- it got better at coordinator -- you also have the youngest roster in the league and the division looks winnable. ... I think Green Bay can break through and get a one seed or a two seed out of nowhere."
Anyway, if you want to hear their full thoughts on who might win Super Bowl LIX, then be sure to click here so you can listen. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here
2. Top 25 offensive free agents: Only one QB cracks the top 10
In less than a month, things should be getting crazy around the NFL and that's because the league's free agency period will be kicking off on March 13. The first 24 hours of free agency are usually pretty wild and that's because that time frame is usually when we see the biggest names go off the board. 
So who are the biggest names this year? Glad you asked. 
Our Jared Dubin ranked the top 25 offensive free agents. His list includes every player set to become a free agent, even players like Michael Pittman Jr., who could end up getting hit with the franchise tag. 
With that in mind, let's take a look at Dubin's top 10 (We'll list the player plus the team they played for last season). One thing you'll notice about the top 10 is that, except for the top spot, it's all wide receivers and offensive linemen. 
1. QB Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
2. WR Tee Higgins (Bengals)
3. WR Mike Evans (Buccaneers)
4. WR Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts)
5. OT Tyron Smith (Cowboys)
6. WR Marquise Brown (Cardinals)
7. OT Trent Brown (Patriots)
8. OT Connor Williams (Dolphins)
9. WR Calvin Ridley (Jaguars)
10. OG Robert Hunt (Dolphins)
If you want to see Dubin's entire top 25 rankings, then be sure to click here. We'll have a ranking of the top 25 defensive free agents coming on Monday. 
3. Super Bowl nuggets: Why Kyle Shanahan skipped out on postgame handshake and Chiefs' pay for winning
At the end of the Super Bowl, there's usually a postgame handshake between the two head coaches, but that did NOT happen on Sunday following Kansas City's 25-22 win over San Francisco.
So did Kyle Shanahan snub Andy Reid? The 49ers coach actually answered that question after the game. 
  • The two coaches decided not to shake hands. According to Shanahan, the decision not to shake hands was made a full week before the game. "We both talked on Monday [Feb. 5] that regardless of who won, I mean I love Andy, I'm tight with Andy, but we talked both of us are going to do that because it's too hard to get to each other after these Super Bowls," Shanahan said. 
  • Why they made this agreement. Shanahan said a big reason they made the agreement is because of what happened the last time these two teams faced each other in the Super Bowl. In that game, the Chiefs won 31-20 after the 49ers blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Following the game, Shanahan waited more than 20 minutes to shake Reid's hand because the Chiefs coach was getting mobbed by reporters, his own players and family. Neither coach wanted a repeat of that, so they decided not to shake hands in Super Bowl LVIII. 
It's an interesting decision, but it does make some sense. 
Now, let's go from sense to cents. 
If you've ever wondered how much the winning team gets paid in the Super Bowl, we have the answer. Every Chiefs player earned a total of $338,000 in salary for the team's Super Bowl run with that number breaking down like this
  • Wild Card round: $50,500
  • Divisional round: $50,500
  • AFC Championship: $73,000
  • Super Bowl: $164,000
As for the 49ers, their numbers are the same, except with one huge difference: The losing team in the Super Bowl only gets $89,000 per player for the game, instead of $164,000. The 49ers won't get as much money, but for someone like Brock Purdy, that's a huge bump over the $54,722 paycheck that he received during the regular season. 
4. 49ers will have to buck this trend if they want to get back to the Super Bowl with Brock Purdy
If you're a 49ers fan, your week has already been bad enough due to the Super Bowl loss, but now I'm about to make things even worse by passing along a somewhat alarming stat that our research team found this week: Of the last 18 quarterbacks to lose in their Super Bowl debut, NONE of them made it back to the big game in their career. 
This list dates all the way back to the 1994 season when Stan Humphries and the Chargers lost to the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIX. Since then, there have been 17 more quarterbacks to lose their Super Bowl debut and none of them have made it back to the big game. 
Here's the list of the past 18 quarterbacks who lost their Super Bowl debut and never made it back to the big game: 
Super Bowl XXIX: Stan Humphries (Chargers)
Super Bowl XXX: Neil O'Donnell (Steelers)
Super Bowl XXXI: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots) -- Bledsoe did return as a backup, but that doesn't count
Super Bowl XXXIII: Chris Chandler (Falcons)
Super Bowl XXIV: Steve McNair (Titans)
Super Bowl XXXV: Kerry Collins (Giants)
Super Bowl XXXVII: Rich Gannon (Raiders)
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Jake Delhomme (Panthers)
Super Bowl XXXIX: Donovan McNabb (Eagles)
Super Bowl XL: Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks)
Super Bowl XLI: Rex Grossman (Bears)
Super Bowl XLVII: Colin Kaepernick (49ers)
Super Bowl 50: Cam Newton (Panthers) 
Super Bowl LI: Matt Ryan (Falcons)
Super Bowl LIII: Jared Goff (Rams)
Super Bowl LIV: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Super Bowl LVI: Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Super Bowl LVII: Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
The last QB to lose to buck this trend was Jim Kelly, who lost in Super Bowl XXV, but ended up making it back three straight seasons after that. Of course, the Bills went 0-4 with Kelly, so that might not actually make anyone on this list feel any better.
Also, Goff, Burrow, Garoppolo and Kaepernick each came close to ending the streak, but all three guys ended up falling one game short of a possible Super Bowl return (Kaepernick's 49ers lost the NFC title game in 2013 while Garoppolo's 49ers lost the NFC Championship in 2021 followed by Burrow's Bengals losing in the 2022 AFC title game and then Goff lost in the 2023 NFC title game). 
Basically, if Purdy gets back to the Super Bowl with the 49ers, he'd be making history, but 49ers fans probably shouldn't count on it based on this stat. 
5. Ranking every team's 2023 rookie class 
After unveiling Pete Prisco's final Power Rankings on Wednesday, we have one more ranking related to the 2023 season and we're going to be unveiling it today. CBSSports.com NFL Draft guru Chris Trapasso decided to close out the season by ranking the best draft classes from 2023. 
Trapasso ranked ALL 32 draft classes, but we're only going to look at the top three here. 
1. Texans 
Year 1 hits: QB C.J. Stroud, EDGE Will Anderson Jr., WR Tank Dell
Trapasso's takeaway: "Having the the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year will get you atop of this ranking every time."
2. Packers
Year 1 hits: WR Jayden Reed, TE Luke Musgrave, TE Tucker Kraft, DL Karl Brooks, WR Dontayvion Wicks, EDGE/DL Colby Wooden
Trapasso's takeaway: "The Packers went full 'YOUTH MOVEMENT' and it paid immediate dividends, particularly on offense. ... Reed was a slot star with eight touchdowns in the regular season, Wicks demonstrated his athletic gifts translate to big plays, and the tight end duo combined for 65 catches, 707 yards and three touchdowns. On defense, the uniquely shaped Brooks was a wrecking ball late in the season and into the playoffs."
3. Rams
Year 1 hits: WR Puka Nacua, DT Kobie Turner, EDGE Byron Young, IOL Steve Avila
Trapasso's takeaway: "This is exactly why the Rams weren't clinging to first-round picks for all those years. They trust their drafting system. Nacua was the gem of the draft uncovered in the fifth round. Turner, a third-round pick, was one hell of a find, too. He was a rocket of a pass-rusher down the stretch and finished second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting."
If you want to check out Trapasso's full ranking, you can do that here (Spoiler alert: The Panthers ranked dead last). 
6. Extra points: Jimmy Garoppolo hit with suspension for violating NFL's PED policy
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
  • Garoppolo hit with two-game suspension. The Raiders quarterback has been suspended two games for violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancing substances. According to ESPN.com , Garoppolo used a prescribed medication, but he didn't have a valid therapeutic use exemption. One thing that's not clear is who Garoppolo will be serving the suspension with. According to NFL.com, the QB is expected to be released soon, and once that happens, he'll be one of the top quarterbacks on the market. However, no matter where he signs, he'll have to sit out the first two games of the season. 
  • Taylor Swift donates $100,000 to family of deceased shooting victim.  Lisa Lopez-Galvan was the only person who died in Wednesday's parade shooting and Taylor Swift is now doing what she can to help Lopez-Galvan's family. The singer has donated $100,000 to a GoFundMe that was set up to support the family. Swift is currently on tour in Australia and didn't attend the parade. 
  • Bears cut two starters. The Bears have cut ties with safety Eddie Jackson and guard Cody Whitehair. The two moves will open up nearly $22 million in salary cap space as the Bears get ready for free agency. Whitehair was a one-time Pro Bowler who started 118 games over eight seasons. As for Jackson, he's a two-time Pro Bowler, who started in 100 games over seven seasons. Since they got cut, the two players will be able to sign with any team before the start of free agency. You can read more about the Bears' decision here
  • Geno Smith gets $12.7 million bonus. It's still not clear if Smith will be Seattle's QB in 2024, but even if he's not, he's going to make at least $12.7 million this year. That's Smith's base salary for 2024 and it became guaranteed today. The Seahawks could have cut him before the money became guaranteed, but they decided that $12.7 million is fair price to pay to find out if he's going to be the starter this year. You can read more about the situation here
  • Eagles lineman says Jason Kelce is done playing. Jason Kelce hasn't yet confirmed if he's going to retire, but one of his teammates definitely seems to think that he's done. "There's no shot [of a return]," left tackle Jordan Mailata recently told NBC Sports Philadelphia . "You're telling me he's going shirts off in the games, gambling in the casinos, he's coming back? No way. He's having too much fun."
  • Veteran QB takes job as Commanders assistant coach. After five seasons, it appears that David Blough has retired from football so that he can take an assistant coaching job. Blough has decided to take a job with the Commanders as the team's assistant QB coach (Details here). This marks the third time we've seen this happen over the past 12 months. Not only did Sean Mannion recently retire to join the Packers' staff, but we also saw career backup Davis Webb retire during the 2023 offseason to join Sean Payton's staff in Denver. 
 
 
A full weekend of college hoops begins Saturday at 12:30 PM ET on CBS with the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Preview revealing the committee's top 16 teams in the country followed by an in-state battle between Texas and #3 Houston. Then on Sunday, it's a Big Ten matchup featuring #2 Purdue taking on Ohio State. Watch on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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This weekend, The PGA Tour on CBS features the return of Tiger Woods as he headlines a field including several of the world's top golfers competing at The Genesis Invitational. Live coverage begins Saturday and Sunday at 3 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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