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Thursday, December 10, 2020
It's been so long since we've had a normal week in the NFL that I actually forgot what a normal week was like, but I think we might be getting one in Week 14. 
I don't want to jinx anything, but we have a Thursday game tonight, then a normal slate of Sunday games, then one Monday game. There's no TUESDAY game. There's no WEDNESDAY game. There's no MONDAY DOUBLEHEADER. Everything is normal. I never thought I'd say this, but I love normal. 
The only thing crazy that happened with the NFL schedule this week came on Wednesday when the NFL decided to flex the COWBOYS out of primetime. The Cowboys never get flexed out of primetime. For Week 15, the 49ers at Cowboys game has been bumped out of Sunday Night Football in favor of Browns at Giants. I never thought we'd live in a world where the Browns and Giants would bump the Cowboys, but here we are, 2020 has truly been the year of crazy.  
Alright, let's get to the rundown. As always, if you want to share this newsletter with everyone you know, I will not be offended. Just click here to grab the link and then send that link to everyone on your email list
1. Today's Show: Daily fantasy advice for Week 14
I was looking at the schedule for the Pick Six Podcast this week and I noticed that there are a total of 11 EPISODES on the docket, so if Will Brinson's family files a missing persons report for him this week that is why. For Thursday's podcast, Brinson brought on fantasy guru Frank Stampfl to about the best daily fantasy plays for Week 14. The pair went over all the best fantasy options for the 12 games that are being played on Sunday.
During the podcast, the duo offered their best value plays for the week, so let's take a quick look at those (These are guys you can purchase for $4,000 or less). 
  • Brinson: Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert ($3,100). Starting a Jaguars player might sound crazy, but Eifert actually makes some sense here. For one, he's averaging five targets per game since Mike Glennon took over as starting quarterback. Also, the Jags are playing the Titans, who have had some serious trouble stopping tight ends this year. The Titans have surrendered seven touchdowns to tight ends, which is tied for the seventh-most in the NFL.  
  • Stampfl: Cowboys WR Michael Gallup ($3,800). This week is going to be a revenge game for Andy Dalton, so it won't be surprising at all if the Cowboys unleash him against his former team, the Bengals. If that happens, Dalton could put up big numbers and one of the biggest benefactors could be Gallup, who's been targeted a total of 19 times by Dalton over the past two weeks. Also, the Bengals have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, so there's a lot to like about this play.  
To listen to today's episode -- and subscribe to the podcast -- be sure to click here.   
2. Getting you ready for Patriots-Rams in Los Angeles
Someone in the NFL scheduling department must really like Bill Belichick, because the Patriots caught a break this week with their game against the Rams. Flying across the country on a short week is almost always a disadvantage in the NFL, but the Patriots don't have to worry about that because they've been out in L.A. since Saturday when they flew out for their Week 13 game against the Chargers. 
What this means is that Belichick has had four days to look at every nook and cranny of SoFi Stadium, which is obviously going to somehow work out in New England's favor tonight. 
Let's take a look at a few keys for each team tonight in a game where the Rams are favored by five points: 
  • Patriots: If the Patriots are going to win, they're going to have to figure out how to run the ball, which isn't going to be easy, and that's because they're going up against a Rams defense that has surrendered the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year. The Patriots have almost zero passing attack, which means they're going to need a big games from Damien Harris, Sony Michel and Cam Newton.    
  • Rams: Like most Rams games, this game is going to hinge on the play of Jared Goff. Through 13 weeks this season, the Rams are 0-3 in games where Goff records a QB rating below 75, but 8-1 when he goes above 75. The problem for Goff is that there's no one in the NFL better at confusing opposing quarterbacks than Bill Belichick. If Goff gets confused by the defense that Belichick throws at him, then it could be a long night for the Rams.  
Breech's prediction: Patriots 23-20 over Rams.
For a more in-depth preview on this game from Jared Dubin, be sure to click here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview. 
  • ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Goff over 262.5 passing yards (-115): Goff has gone over 300 yards in four of his last five games, so it won't be surprising at all if he gets near that number against on Thursday. One other reason to like this bet is because Goff should be throwing it a lot no matter what. If he plays well, Sean McVay will keep dialing up big pass plays, but if Goff doesn't play well, that likely means the Rams will be playing from behind, which means Goff will be throwing the ball more. 
  • ONE PROP I LIKE: Nick Folk over 5.5 total kicking points (-140): All Folk has to do to win this prop for you is hit two field goals. The Patriots kicker has gone over 5.5 points in seven of his past eight games, which almost makes this seem like a lock. If you're looking for something with slightly better value, I also like the first score of the game to be a Rams field goal, which has odds of +320.  
You can check out Sullivan's full gambling preview by clicking here.
3. NFL Playoff projections heading into Week 14 
The crazy part about the 2020 season is that with just four weeks to play 12 of the 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. Since you're probably wondering who's going to get those 12 spots, we went ahead and figured it out for you with our playoff projections. If you're wondering how we do these projections, our number-cruncher, Stephen Oh of SportsLine, simulates the rest of the season a total of 10,000 times and then we use those numbers to project how each team is going to finish.
Based on this week's projections here is how each playoff race is going to shake out (Remember, this is NOT the current playoff standings, it's where we're projecting each team to finish based on their final projected record). Teams with an asterisk have already clinched at least a playoff berth. 
AFC
1. Steelers (14-2)
2. Chiefs (14-2)*
3. Bills (11-5)
4. Titans (10-6)
5. Browns (11-5)
6. Colts (10-6)
7. Ravens (10-6)
First team out: Dolphins (10-6)
The Dolphins are on pace to finish with their most wins since 2016, but unfortunately for them, that's not going to be enough to make the playoffs this year. Our computer really, really, really loves the Ravens and a big reason for that is because they have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL down the stretch with games still to play against the Jaguars, Bengals and Giants following their Week 14 showdown with Cleveland. As for the Dolphins, they're going to be depressed when they find out that they're going to miss the playoffs with 10 wins, but an NFC team might get in as a wild-card with eight wins.   
NFC 
1. Saints (13-3)*
2. Packers (12-4)
3. Rams (11-5) 
4. Giants (7-9)
5. Seahawks (10-6)
6. Buccaneers (9-7) 
7. Cardinals (8-8)
First team out: Vikings (8-8) 
The NFC East winner might not be the only team in the playoffs with a record at .500 or below and that's because we're projecting the third wild-card team in the NFC to also be at .500 or below. Apparently, we've been so blinded by how bad the NFC East has been this year that none of us noticed that half the conference is actually bad. 
4. NFL Week 14 picks 
In case you haven't noticed, we love to make picks here at CBS Sports. As a matter of fact, I even love to make picks about who's going to have the best picks each week. Two guys who almost always do a good job with their picks are Jordan Dajani and Tom Fornelli. Speaking of Fornelli, if you like this newsletter, I should have you know that he also writes a newsletter and it's just as fun. It's the CBS Sports HQ PM edition newsletter and you can subscribe to it by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's check out one pick from each guy for Week 14: 
  • Dajani: Washington (+3) at 49ers. After watching Washington beat the Steelers on Monday, Dajani is officially on the Football Team hype train. Not only does he think Washington is going to cover in this revenge game for Alex Smith, but he thinks they're going to pull off the upset. Dajani's pick: Washington 24-23 over 49ers. 
  • Fornelli: Saints (-7) at Eagles. The Eagles are going to be making a quarterback switch this week, but it's not going to help much since they'll be going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Also, the Saints are 8-0 both straight-up and against the spread in their past eight games without Drew Brees and guess what? Drew Brees won't be playing on Sunday. Fornelli's pick: Saints 27-14 over Eagles. 
For a look at Fornelli's three "Best Bets" for Week 14, be sure to click here. If you're looking for the rest of Dajani's Week 14 picks -- he picks every game -- be sure to click here
5. MVP Watch: Race seems like it's down to two players  
If you bet on Kyler Murray to win the MVP this year, you can probably just go ahead and burn that ticket, because I'm starting to think he's not going to win. The MVP race has been a wild roller coaster ride this season, but unfortunately for Murray, he's one of the candidates who fell off the roller coaster and as we all know, falling off a roller coaster hurts.  
With Murray no longer considered a viable MVP candidate, you might be wondering who is a viable candidate right now, so we decided to have some people vote on it. Our Cody Benjamin rounded up a panel of experts to vote on the MVP award heading into Week 14. 
The panel of voters included CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora, Pick Six host Will Brinson, NFL senior reporter Jonathan Jones along with NFL writers Jared Dubin, Cody Benjamin, Bryan DeArdo, Jeff Kerr and Josh Edwards. Plus me, because let's be honest, I'm the MVP of voting on things, so you kind of have to include me. 
Anyway, if all of our ballots proved one thing this week, it's that the MVP race is down to two players: Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Not only were they neck-and-neck for the top spot, but they're so far ahead of Russell Wilson that it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Seahawks quarterback could make up that much ground over the final four weeks of the year. 
Here's a breakdown of our voting: 
1. Patrick Mahomes: 43 points (Seven out of nine first place votes)
2. Aaron Rodgers: 37 points (Two out of nine first place votes)
3. Russell Wilson: 14 points
4. Aaron Donald: 10 points
5. Josh Allen: Nine points 
I personally voted Mahomes at one, so I'm glad to see nearly everyone agreed with me. A total of 12 players received at least one vote and if you want to know who else landed on the list, you can check out the voting by clicking here
6. Super Bowl odds: Chiefs still on top
The Chiefs have been the favorite to win Super Bowl LV since the first odds came out last February, and with just four weeks left to play in the season, nothing has changed that so far. In the latest Super Bowl odds from Williams Hill Sportsbook, the Chiefs aren't just viewed as the favorite to win it all, they're a heavy favorite. 
1. Chiefs +210
2. Saints +500
T-3. Packers +800
T-3. Steelers +800
5. Rams +1200
6. Seahawks +1500
T-7. Buccaneers +1600
T-7. Bills +1600
9. Ravens +2500
T-10. Browns, Colts, Titans +2800
Worst odds: Broncos +10000 (Bet $100 to win $100,000)
Best value: Colts +2800
My first piece of advice here is don't bet on the Broncos even though a $1 bet would pay out $1,000 if they somehow won. Also, if you're wondering why the Jets don't have the worst odds, it's because they're no longer listed due to the fact that they've already been eliminated from playoff contention. 
If I had to bet my money right now on a team to win the Super Bowl, I'd probably go with the Chiefs, even though it's not a great value. On the other hand, if I want to bet on a team that could potentially win me a lot of money, I would definitely go with the Indianapolis Colts. If we've learned one thing about winning the Super Bowl, it's that a great defense can win you the title and the Colts have that. The Colts also have a competent offense, which is all you need when your defense is good. A $100 bet on the Colts would pay out $2,800 if they win it all. That would be roughly enough money for me to buy one Philip Rivers jersey for every single one of his kids. 
7. The Kicker!
If you love drama, then you're definitely going to want to watch tonight's game and that's because there could be some serious kicking drama for the Rams. The game is just a few hours away and I literally have no idea who is going to be kicking for them. 
The Rams normal kicker is Matt Gay, but he's dealing with a shoulder injury and has been listed as questionable. If he can't go, the Rams also have a kicker on their practice squad in Austin McGinnis. However, if they don't trust McGinnis, who has never kicked in an NFL game, they could turn to punter Johnny Hekker, who can also kick (Hekker made one field goal and one extra point when he was forced to handle kicking duties for the only time in his career back in 2018). 
Of course, if they go with Hekker, then they're going to need a new holder, because he's usually the guy who holds on field goals and extra points. If this all sounds crazy, that's because it is and like I said, I'm fully expecting some drama from the Rams kicking game. 
If there is a Rams kicking meltdown, I will probably react by having a meltdown myself on Twitter, and you can feel free to follow along by clicking here. Hopefully, I recover from the meltdown in time to write tomorrow's newsletter. See you guys Friday!
 
 
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