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| Wednesday, December 22, 2021 |
| Let's just hope we can avoid any re-scheduled games this week, but those Tuesday night games weren't great for anyone. Except for Cooper Kupp, I guess, who is making a strong case to be the No. 2 overall pick in Fantasy drafts next year. |
| But that's a conversation topic for another day. Because today, we're taking our first look at Week 16 with my initial rankings and Heath Cummings' position previews. And things are, obviously, kind of a mess. We've still got players from last week on the COVID list or dealing with injuries, plus we've got nearly the entire Buccaneers skill player group dealing with injuries -- with Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin out for the rest of the regular season -- plus the likes of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Austin Ekeler on the COVID list and Joe Mixon dealing with an ankle injury. |
| Among many other injuries. Although, hey, at least A.J. Brown might be back this week! |
| We'll have updates on all of the injuries you need to know about for Week 16 in tomorrow's newsletter with the first practice reports coming out later today, along with start and sit calls from Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg. |
| For now, I've got my first round of rankings for Week 16 ready to go here: |
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| And you can find more of my thoughts, plus Heath Cummings' preview for each position further down in today's newsletter: |
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| 🔍Week 16 Position Previews and Rankings
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Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. This week, I've got Heath's previews for each position as normal, but also my quick thoughts on each plus my rankings for each. Here's everything you need to know for Week 16: |
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| As we prep for Week 16, COVID remains one of the defining features of the football landscape. At quarterback, we've got three starters – Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff – though the good news is, those guys aren't really Fantasy relevant most weeks, so you probably shouldn't miss them. |
| The bad news is that Lamar Jackson is still dealing with his ankle injury, and we still don't know if he's going to play – though Tyler Huntley was so impressive in his absence that he might be a top-12 QB even if Jackson does have to miss time. So, the really, really bad news is that there just aren't many quarterbacks actually playing well right now. |
| Week 15 saw just 38 passing touchdowns thrown in 32 QB games, the lowest total in a week with a full schedule since Week 15 of 2018. Passing production accounted for just 14.17 Fantasy points per QB game last week, the lowest total of the season and, again, the lowest total since Week 15 of 2018. In an era where passing production has basically consistently increased year over year, the second half of this season has seen a steep decline, and it's impacted elite quarterbacks just as much as the lower tiers, with a few key exceptions. |
| Which makes it hard to know who you can trust in this Fantasy playoff week. For instance, Dak Prescott is averaging just 12.6 points per game over his past five, while Kyler Murray hasn't topped 20 in either of his past two games. Patrick Mahomes has been wildly inconsistent, and, oh yeah, Tom Brady just lost his top three targets from this season. |
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- Injuries: Lamar Jackson (ankle), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), Taylor Heinicke (COVID), Baker Mayfield (COVID) and Jared Goff (COVID)
- Number to know: 22% -- Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are the only two quarterbacks with a bad throw percentage over 22% per Pro Football Reference. They face off this week, but can either take advantage of the matchup?
- Matchup that matters: Joe Burrow vs. BAL (28th in points allowed to QB)
- Top streamer: "Tyler Huntley. Huntley is my top priority for now just because he has the most upside if Jackson is out. But you should definitely have another quarterback rostered if you go this direction."
- Top DFS play: "Justin Herbert. Let's pretend for a moment that Lamar Jackson is back. That makes Herbert my top value on the slate. He's also my highest-scoring projected quarterback this week against the Texans."
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| My Top 24 |
- Justin Herbert @HOU
- Aaron Rodgers vs. CLE
- Tom Brady @CAR
- Josh Allen @NE
- Patrick Mahomes vs. PIT
- Jalen Hurts vs. NYG
- Lamar Jackson @CIN
- Kyler Murray vs. IND
- Matthew Stafford @MIN
- Dak Prescott vs. WAS
- Russell Wilson vs. CHI
- Taysom Hill vs. MIA
- Joe Burrow vs. BAL
- Tua Tagovailoa @NO
- Kirk Cousins vs. LAR
- Cam Newton vs. TB
- Matt Ryan vs. DET
- Derek Carr vs. DEN
- Justin Fields @SEA
- Jimmy Garoppolo @TEN
- Trevor Lawrence @NYJ
- Ryan Tannehill vs. SF
- Zach Wilson vs. JAX
- Carson Wentz @ARI
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| Josh Jacobs is my No. 5 RB this week. Ezekiel Elliott is still top-10 for me. Maybe my rankings are just wildly off base this week, or maybe the running back position is just a total mess. That doesn't mean there aren't good options – there actually are plenty of really intriguing players out there. The problem is, it's hard to know who you can trust, as of Wednesday afternoon, at least. |
| For instance, I could see ranking the likes of Samaje Perine, Justin Jackson, or Jeff Wilson ahead of Elliott, but we just don't yet know what their roles are going to be. If Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Elijah Mitchell are all out, maybe all three would be ahead of Elliott. But, until we know those starters are out, it's hard to make that call. |
| It's similarly hard to make that call with guys in split backfields, most notably Aaron Jones and Javonte Williams. There's obviously big upside with both, but both seem to be stuck in near 50-50 splits in their own backfields. Cordarrelle Patterson has an incredible matchup against Detroit, but he's also seen his role in the passing game decrease significantly of late, leaving him much more touchdown-dependent than he was earlier in the season for his value. |
| And then there's Elliott, who just hasn't been good for a long time – he's averaging 3.3 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per target over his past six games. That's brutal. But he's also getting five targets per game and at 12.2 carries, and the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites against Washington. I'd expect he's going to continue to have a healthy workload and a good chance for a touchdown. Maybe his upside isn't as high as some other backs, but his role just remains too valuable for me to get away from. |
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- Injuries: Joe Mixon (ankle), Leonard Fournette (hamstring), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Damien Harris (hamstring), Kareem Hunt (COVID), Alexander Mattison (COVID), D'Onta Foreman (ankle), J.D. McKissic (concussion) and Alex Collins (COVID)
- Number to know: 90 -- Touches for Ronald Jones in four games without Fournette last year.
- Matchup that matters: Jeff Wilson @TEN (1st in points allowed to RB)
- Stash: "Khalil Herbert. Herbert, and backs like him, should be filling your bench spots, just in case they end up with a feature role in Week 17."
- Top DFS play: "Ronald Jones. Yes, everyone is going to play Jones if Fournette is out. No, I'm not brave enough to fade him at a high roster rate."
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| My Top 48 |
- Jonathan Taylor @ARI
- Dalvin Cook vs. LAR
- James Robinson @NYJ
- Alvin Kamara vs. MIA
- Josh Jacobs vs. DEN
- David Montgomery @SEA
- Najee Harris @KC
- Nick Chubb @GB
- Ronald Jones @CAR
- Antonio Gibson @DAL
- Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS
- Samaje Perine vs. BAL
- Javonte Williams @LV
- Cordarrelle Patterson vs. DET
- Aaron Jones vs. CLE
- Saquon Barkley @PHI
- Justin Jackson @HOU
- Jeff Wilson @TEN
- Miles Sanders vs. NYG
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PIT
- Devin Singletary @NE
- Myles Gaskin @NO
- AJ Dillon vs. CLE
- Melvin Gordon @LV
- D'Onta Foreman vs. SF
- Sony Michel @MIN
- Rhamondre Stevenson vs. BUF
- Ameer Abdullah vs. TB
- Chuba Hubbard vs. TB
- James Conner vs. IND
- Chase Edmonds vs. IND
- Rashaad Penny vs. CHI
- Craig Reynolds @ATL
- Devonta Freeman @CIN
- Tevin Coleman vs. JAX
- DeeJay Dallas vs. CHI
- Darrell Henderson @MIN
- Godwin Igwebuike @ATL
- Darrel Williams vs. PIT
- Brandon Bolden vs. BUF
- Le'Veon Bell @CAR
- Mike Davis vs. DET
- Joshua Kelley @HOU
- David Johnson vs. LAC
- Nyheim Hines @ARI
- Corey Clement vs. WAS
- Jordan Howard vs. NYG
- Duke Johnson @NO
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| How many wide receivers can you really trust in Week 16? For many of you, this week is your chance to get into the Fantasy championship, after likely having skated by during one of the worst Fantasy weeks I can remember, and right now it feels like there aren't any wide receivers you can trust. |
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| Okay, probably not plural-dozens. Maybe just a dozen. In my rankings this week, there is a pretty dramatic drop in projected production between No. 9, Deebo Samuel, and No. 10, Jaylen Waddle, however, I would still feel pretty good about starting basically everyone through WR13, Marquise Brown. And, heck, I'll throw CeeDee Lamb in there, and probably Tee Higgins, despite his struggles in Week 15. And yeah, Russell Gage is pretty hard to get away from, and Gabriel Davis looks like a potential league-winner with Cole Beasley and possibly Emmanuel Sanders out. Okay, fine, Christian Kirk, too – he has 31 targets in the four games DeAndre Hopkins has missed this season. |
| But certainly not Michael Pittman, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, or … well, you get the point. So, not quite dozens, but more than a dozen, for sure. Hopefully, having made the playoffs, you don't have to reach too much further than, say, No. 20 in the rankings for your starters. Because it's rough out there. |
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- Injuries: Chris Godwin (ACL), Mike Evans (hamstring), Tyler Lockett (COVID), Adam Thielen (ankle), Julio Jones (hamstring), Jarvis Landry (COVID), Emmanuel Sanders (knee), Allen Robinson (COVID), Kendrick Bourne (COVID), Kadarius Toney (COVID) and Sterling Shepard (Achilles)
- Number to know: 35 -- Targets for Amon-Ra St. Brown over his last three games. He's an alpha No. 1 without T.J. Hockenson.
- Matchup that matters: Amon-Ra St. Brown (30th in points allowed to WR)
- Stash: "Jakobi Meyers. Meyers gets Jacksonville in Week 17."
- Top DFS play: "Antonio Brown. Brown projects as a top-six wide receiver this week. He's not priced like one at all."
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| My Top 48 |
- Cooper Kupp @MIN
- Davante Adams vs. CLE
- Justin Jefferson vs. LAR
- Keenan Allen @HOU
- Stefon Diggs @NE
- Antonio Brown @CAR
- Diontae Johnson @KC
- Hunter Renfrow vs. DEN
- Deebo Samuel @TEN
- Jaylen Waddle @NO
- D.J. Moore vs. TB
- Amon-Ra St. Brown @ATL
- Marquise Brown @CIN
- CeeDee Lamb vs. WAS
- Tee Higgins vs. BAL
- Russell Gage vs. DET
- Gabriel Davis @NE
- Christian Kirk vs. IND
- Michael Pittman @ARI
- Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL
- Chase Claypool @KC
- Terry McLaurin @DAL
- Amari Cooper vs. WAS
- Brandon Aiyuk @TEN
- D.K. Metcalf vs. CHI
- DeVante Parker @NO
- Odell Beckham @MIN
- Jakobi Meyers vs. BUF
- A.J. Green vs. IND
- Mike Williams @HOU
- Jerry Jeudy @LV
- Jamison Crowder vs. JAX
- K.J. Osborn vs. LAR
- DeVonta Smith vs. NYG
- Van Jefferson @MIN
- Laviska Shenault @NYJ
- Mecole Hardman vs. PIT
- Michael Gallup vs. WAS
- Tyler Boyd vs. BAL
- Darnell Mooney @SEA
- Kenny Golladay @PHI
- Marvin Jones @NYJ
- Adam Humphries @DAL
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CLE
- Rashod Bateman @CIN
- Laquon Treadwell @NYJ
- Donovan Peoples-Jones @GB
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| There was some talk last week around Fantasy Football circles about Travis Kelce no longer being the No. 1 tight end, so he went out and put together the sixth-best tight end performance in a single game since 2000, with 41.1 PPR points. Of course, it's not like Mark Andrews, the consensus No. 1 last week, was much worse – he had the 17th-best performance, with 35.6 points. And it's worth pausing here, as the Fantasy playoffs move to the semi-finals, to note just how big of an edge those elite tight ends have still been able to give you this season. |
| Of the 30-best tight end performances in a single game since 2000, six have happened this season: |
- No. 5: Mark Andrews in Week 5 – 41.7 PPR points
- No. 6: Travis Kelce in Week 15 – 41.1
- No. 9: George Kittle in Week 13 – 39.6
- No. 17: Mark Andrews in Week 15 – 35.6
- No. 30: George Kittle in Week 14 – 34.1
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| Talk about coming up big at the right time. Overall, this position remains incredibly weak, with just six or maybe seven players I feel good about starting right now, with a clear drop after No. 4, Rob Gronkowski. The elites at the position still remain arguably the biggest consistent edge you can find in Fantasy – though, unfortunately, Kelce's status for Week 16 is very much in doubt after he tested positive for COVID, shrinking the already shallow pool of reliable options at the worst time. |
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- Injuries: Travis Kelce (COVID), Darren Waller (knee), Pat Freiermuth (concussion), Tyler Higbee (COVID) and Austin Hooper (COVID)
- Number to know: 10 -- The Raiders have allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second most in the NFL behind the Chargers.
- Matchup that matters: Cole Kmet @SEA (28th in points allowed to TE)
- Streamer: "Kmet. Kmet has had intermittent high target games and has a great matchup against Washington."
- Top DFS play: "Rob Gronkowski. The loss of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should lead to increased target share for Gronkowski."
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| My Top 24 |
- Mark Andrews @CIN
- George Kittle @TEN
- Rob Gronkowski @CAR
- Kyle Pitts vs. DET
- Dallas Goedert vs. NYG
- Zach Ertz vs. IND
- Dawson Knox @NE
- Dalton Schultz vs. WAS
- Gerald Everett vs. CHI
- Tyler Higbee @MIN
- James O'Shaughnessy @NYJ
- Ricky Seals-Jones @DAL
- Foster Moreau vs. DEN
- Jared Cook @HOU
- Mike Gesicki @NO
- Tyler Conklin vs. LAR
- Hunter Henry vs. BUF
- Austin Hooper @GB
- Cole Kmet @SEA
- David Njoku @GB
- Evan Engram @PHI
- Noah Fant @LV
- Brevin Jordan vs. LAC
- C.J. Uzomah vs. BAL
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| Top-150 Flex rankings |
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