Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it's not the most vigorous canary anyone's ever seen, it also wasn't dead. That wasn't good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case, tariff/policy/uncertainty impact on econ data). ISM is also often heavily traded due to its proximity to the big jobs report (in this case, the following morning). If nothing else, the market's willingness to react to economic data once again is fully confirmed. Econ Data / EventsJobless Claims 241k vs 224k f'cast, 223k prev Continued Claims1916k vs 1860k f'cast, 1833k prev ISM Manufacturing PMI48.7 vs 48.0 f'cast ISM Prices Paid69.8 vs 70.3 f'cast, 69.4 prev Market Movement Recap08:33 AM MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3.5bps at 4.126 after claims data. 10:23 AM weaker after ISM.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.196 12:27 PM MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6.7 bps at 4.227. 02:30 PM MBS now down a quarter point and 10yr up 7.7bps at 4.238