By Michael Shepherd - March 11, 2022
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Good morning from Augusta. A reminder that revenue from new Bangor Daily News digital subscriptions through Monday will go to Direct Relief Ukraine. Read more on our initiative from President Todd Benoit.

What we're watching today

National prognosticators think Maine's biggest 2022 races will be hotly contested and so do we. Over the last eight years, Maine has settled into a biennial battleground state defined by the swing 2nd Congressional District and how it bumps up against the reliably liberal 1st District in southern Maine. The interplay between the two population halves will be as important as ever in 2022, which may be a difficult midterm year for Democrats in narrow control of Washington but in command of Augusta.

Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from the 2nd District, is on the front lines perhaps more than anyone. The centrist Marine veteran held onto his seat in 2020 by slightly outpolling former President Donald Trump, former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin is gunning for a rematch of his 2018 loss to Golden and should keep national Republicans interested in the race if he can fight off at least one primary challenger. The national parties are also gearing up for a heavyweight race between Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage.

The national environment is bad for Democrats right now. President Joe Biden's approval rating has ticked up slightly in the last month, but it still sits below 43 percent with the COVID-19 pandemic and associated cost spikes laying an uncertain path to November. A good Republican environment along with Rep. Mike Michaud vacating the seat to unsuccessfully run against LePage helped Poliquin win the seat in 2014, then Golden barely beat him in the good Democratic year of 2018.

It is no surprise that national pundits are putting the 2nd District at the fulcrum in early predictions about who will control the House after November. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics all put Golden's seat among a relatively small group of seats in the toss-up column after updates to their ratings this month.

The governor's race is more uncertain. Even though we have effectively known for years that Mills and LePage would be facing each other in November, there has been little head-to-head public polling between the two over the years. We have heard rumors of close private polling. Fox News puts the LePage-Mills race in the toss-up column, while the Cook Political Report gives Mills a slight edge.

Maine is also seeing more national resources devoted at the local level. For example, the Republican State Legislative Committee on Thursday named the Maine Legislature as one of their targets for 2022, joining a Democratic counterpart in prioritizing the state. Democrats have been well ahead of Republicans in recent years in bringing national resources into State House races, so the minority party has some catching up to do.

Local factors are always crucial in Maine races. Democratic incumbents could benefit from unique regional agendas. November should still provide a big opportunity for Republicans to at least claw some seats back if the national environment looks like this later this year. That is also a big if during a fast-changing pandemic.

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What we're reading

— Golden wrote a letter along with Republican colleagues urging Biden to use the Defense Production Act to boost domestic oil production. Read more on the ideas outlined in the letter that run across the political spectrum.

— In other letter news, Sen. Susan Collins joined fellow Republicans to push Biden to embrace a Polish plan to route Soviet-era warplanes to Ukraine in their fight with Russia. The White House has balked at using NATO to facilitate the transfer because it could be viewed by Russia as a provocation.

— With Mount Desert Island reeling from a major housing shortage, Acadia National Park needs an act of Congress to build workforce housing on a 50-acre plot in the village of Town Hill. It is considered key to sustaining the park on a long-term basis, with 2021 bringing a record number of visitors.

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Follow along today

9 a.m. The Legislature's judiciary panel will hold a public hearing on a bill from Assistant Senate Majority Leader Mattie Daughtry, D-Brunswick, to prohibit discrimination based on hair texture or style based on recent legislation in Maryland that Republican Gov. Larry Hogan allowed to pass without his signature. Watch here.

10 a.m. Mills will preside over the annual tapping of the Blaine House maple tree to promote the state's sugaring industry. Here's your soundtrack.

The criminal justice committee will work on two Democratic bills aiming to study Maine's emergency medical services system and require police departments to designate civil rights officers. Watch here.

10:30 a.m. The veterans panel will work on a measure that would prohibit the planned closure of two Maine Veterans Homes facilities in Caribou and Machias and fund deficits that led to the plans. Watch here.

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📷 Lead photo: U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from Maine's 2nd District, speaks at Acadia National Park in Winter Harbor on June 18, 2021.

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