| |
|
| Thursday, October 10, 2024 |
| Hello! Today's newsletter will focus on the RB position and include as few words as possible. "Why waste time say lot word when few word do trick?" |
| Week 6 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guests -- Ryan Heath and Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points Data |
| Week 6 RB Matchup Notes: |
| |
| Arizona's defense = run funnel |
| Yesterday's newsletter featured Bijan Robinson vs. Carolina's "run funnel" defense. Josh Jacobs is in a similar spot. Arizona has the second-lowest opposing situation-neutral pass rate and is the only unit with an opponent first-read target rate below 50%. Sorry, so many words. |
Jayden Daniels encapsulates the matchup factor:
First-read rate -- 75% when not playing Arizona, 66% vs. ARI |
| Daniels still produced! Arizona's defense is a complacent -- inviting even -- sitting back and allowing rushing and short passing. |
| How will Jordan Love interact with a defense attempting to stymie his first read? Obviously, Love has no problem chucking even vs. two-high safety coverage. We saw him attack deep vs. Minnesota, and the Vikings use more two-high safety than any team in the NFL. Love may test Arizona's defense. |
| Or Green Bay may simply lean on the ground game. The passing game has been a bit out of rhythm. A conservative gameplan would be no surprise . The Cardinals have faced five quality quarterbacks, none topped 250 passing yards. Offenses are choosing to attack on the ground. Jacobs is a regression candidate. This feels like an obvious spot for him to put up a big score. |
| Derrick Henry, duh |
| The Fantasy Points Data Suite has a tool that grades each run game matchup. In Week 6, the Ravens have the second-biggest advantage in the battle up front of any game this season. In the only matchup with a higher grade (also the Ravens), Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards. |
| (Maybe take note of the second-best rush grade Week 6 matchup!) |
| |
| THIS IS NOT AN AD. |
| Worry you not, I am not interested in influencing you. I enjoy this work, so I do it. I enjoy writing words, so I write many. I enjoy research, so I seek out the best tools. |
| You can go check out Fantasy Points if you want to. You can read this newsletter if you want to. You can bet on Derrick Henry if you want to. You control your choices, that's all. No need to be afraid that others might manipulate you into buying something that you want to, unless you do not control your choices. |
| If you're interested in my opinion, I view Week 6 as another where Baltimore's choice will be to run the ball. I'll be betting on that outcome. |
| Chase Brown is rolling |
| |
| The New York Giants have a league-high 60% opposing success rate on zone rushes. That rate rises to 64% on outside zone runs. The Bengals have used Brown more as a zone rusher (59%), compared to Moss (45%). Brown has a league-best 71% success rate on zone runs and has been at his best on outside zone concepts. |
| On the other side of the ball... |
| The Bengals have the fourth-highest success rate allowed on man/gap runs, and no offense has used man/gap runs more often than the Giants. Cincinnati is one of just six defenses that has a negative EPA (expected points added) per play on opponent rushes. |
| Tank Bigsby szn continues |
| |
| Bijan Robinson week, please? |
| Atlanta ranks first with a 77% zone rush rate. |
| Carolina ranks: |
5th-highest yards per rush and 4th-highest rush success rate allowed on zone runs
24th-highest yards per rush and 11th-highest rush success rate allowed on man/gap runs |
| Week 6 Rankings Update |
| Injuries are even messier than usual this week! It might be crucial to be mindful of having backup plans prepared. |
| |
Quarterback
|
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Lamar Jackson
QB2 - Jayden Daniels
QB3 - Jalen Hurts
QB4 - Joe Burrow
QB6 - Josh Allen
QB7 - Kyler Murray |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB9 - Anthony Richardson (Q)
QB10 - Justin Fields
QB14 - Caleb Williams |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB5 - Jordan Love
QB8 - Dak Prescott
QB11 - Jared Goff
QB12 - Brock Purdy
QB13 - Kirk Cousins
QB15 - Geno Smith
QB17 - Baker Mayfield
QB18 - C.J. Stroud
QB19 - Trevor Lawrence
QB20 - Will Levis |
| Tier 4 -- He's Daniels Jones, and he's facing the Bengals, and he's also Janiel Dones |
| QB16 -- Daniel Jones |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB21 - Drake Maye
QB22 - Andy Dalton
QB23 - Aaron Rodgers
QB24 - Deshaun Watson
QB25 - Bo Nix
QB26 - Justin Herbert
QB27 - Spencer Rattler
QB28 - Gardner Minshew |
| |
| Running Backs |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Derrick Henry
RB2 - Jordan Mason
RB3 - Saquon Barkley
RB4 - Bijan Robinson
RB5 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB6 - Alvin Kamara
RB7 - Josh Jacobs
RB 9 - James Conner
RB10 - David Montgomery
RB11 - Kenneth Walker
RB12 - D'Andre Swift
RB14 - James Cook (Q)
RB16 - Chase Brown (assuming a limited role for Zack Moss)
RB17 - J.K. Dobbins
RB18 - Joe Mixon
RB19 - Brian Robinson (Q)
RB21 - Rico Dowdle |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB8 - Breece Hall
RB13 - Chuba Hubbard
RB15 - Tony Pollard
RB20 - Tank Bigsby
RB22 - Devin Singletary (Q) |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB23 - Najee Harris
RB24 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB26 - Trey Sermon
RB27 - Zack Moss (Q) |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB25 - Bucky Irving
RB28 - Tyler Allgeier
RB29 - Tyrone Tracy (RB19 if Singletary does not play)
RB34 - Roschon Johnson
RB35 - Braelon Allen
RB36 - Tyjae Spears |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB30 - Travis Etienne (Q)
RB31 - Javonte Williams
RB32 - Rachaad White
RB33 - Jerome Ford
RB37 - Austin Ekeler
RB38 - Justice Hill
RB39 - Zach Charbonnet
RB40 - Alexander Mattison |
| |
| Wide Receivers |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
| |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR14 - Zay Flowers
WR15 - Deebo Samuel
WR17 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR19 - Terry McLaurin
WR20 - DeVonta Smith
WR25 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR26 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR27 - Ladd McConkey |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR16 - Garrett Wilson
WR18 - Diontae Johnson
WR21 - Rashid Shaheed
WR22 - Mike Evans
WR23 - Chris Olave
WR24 - Amari Cooper
WR28 - Courtland Sutton
WR30 - Josh Downs |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR29 - Khalil Shakir
WR35 - Keenan Allen
WR38 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| |
| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR31 - Jameson Williams
WR32 - George Pickens
WR33 - Calvin Ridley
WR34 - Rome Odunze
WR36 - Darnell Mooney
WR37 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR39 - Romeo Doubs
WR40 - Tank Dell
WR41 - Jalen Tolbert
WR44 - Xavier Leggette
WR47 - Michael Wilson
WR48 - Tyler Lockett
WR49 - Andrei Iosivas
WR50 - Darius Slayton (assuming no Nabers)
WR51 - Jauan Jennings
WR53 - Alec Pierce
WR54 - Ray-Ray McCloud
WR55 - Rashod Bateman
WR56 - Luke McCaffrey
WR57 - Adonai Mitchell |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR42 - Christian Kirk
WR43 - Jakobi Meyers
WR45 - Jerry Jeudy
WR46 - Tre Tucker
WR52 - Allen Lazard
WR58 - Quentin Johnston
WR59 - Greg Dortch
WR60 - Jalin Hyatt (assuming no Nabers) |
| |
| Tight Ends |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Brock Bowers
TE2 - George Kittle
TE3 - Trey McBride
TE4 - Jake Ferguson
TE5 - Sam LaPorta
TE6 - Tucker Kraft
TE9 - Cole Kmet
TE10 - David Njoku
TE12 - Isaiah Likely |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE7 - Dalton Kincaid
TE8 - Kyle Pitts
TE11 - Dallas Goedert
TE13 - Pat Freiermuth |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE14 - Tyler Conklin
TE15 - Dalton Schultz
TE17 - Cade Otton
TE18 - Brenton Strange
TE19 - Juwan Johnson
TE20 - Mike Gesicki
TE21 - Zach Ertz
TE22 - Noah Fant
TE23 - Hunter Henry
TE24 - Theo Johnson
TE25 - Taysom Hill (Q) |
| Tier 4 -- You broke my heart |
| TE16 - Mark Andrews |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
| |
| | | | | NFL | | Big Ten on CBS | The top of the NFC East meets the top of the AFC North and so much more for this CBS Sports Sunday! Watch your local game live beginning at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Penn State travels to the West Coast in hopes of continuing their undefeated season in a matchup against USC this Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
