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| Thursday, October 24, 2024 |
| Hello! Welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Before getting into that, I need to make a note regarding tonight's TNF game. I had to send this out early today, so I wasn't able to wait for confirmation on the status of Puka Nacua or T.J. Hockenson. They're absent from this rankings set. I'll tweet my updated thoughts on each if it turns out that they're going to suit up tonight. |
| Week 8 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Nate Tice of Yahoo Fantasy |
| Week 8 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| J.K. Dobbins week? |
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| I tend to agree with Hayden Winks, and we're certainly in lockstep here. The Fantasy Points Data Suite sees it the same way, grading this as the second-best run game matchup of the week. |
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| The Broncos just rumbled all over the Saints, and Jim Harbaugh will likely try to do the same. The Chargers are 7.5-point favorites, and we could see 30+ RB touches if the projected game script holds true. Dobbins looks like a top-12 Fantasy RB, and Kimani Vidal is a sneaky flex play if you are in a pinch. |
| I expect the Commanders to center the gameplan around Brian Robinson |
| The third-most advantageous run-blocking matchup grade belongs to the Commanders in Week 8, according to the FP Data Suite. The Bears defense has been much easier to attack on the ground than through the air, and that's exactly how I'd expect Washington to approach this matchup. |
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| Initially, when I thought about this matchup, I held a bit of worry that a Week 6 Tank Bigsby type of outcome might be available to Robinson if the Commanders found themselves playing catch-up. It appears as if Jayden Daniels is unlikely to suit up, given Washington's 20.5-point Vegas implied team total. The Commanders are listed as 2.5-point dogs, and it would be no surprise to see Washington fall into an early hole if the Bears come out hot out of the bye week and Marcus Mariota isn't able to convert first downs. |
| I checked Robinson's underlying data to see if this worry was backed by data and found the opposite. |
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| This is the range that I've moved Robinson into in my Week 8 rankings: |
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| Rachaad White may be back to Fantasy relevancy |
| It was White who played the most and saw the most receiving involvement in Week 7, and he's the Tampa Bay running back who I am projecting for the most points in Week 8. White feels like most likely player on the team to benefit from the absence of Chris Godwin when it comes specifically to the screen void left open. Godwin was being used on screens more than any player in the NFL. That's an area where White has excelled. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has shown a propensity for using both White and Bucky Irving on the field together, and I think we could see him get creative in finding even more ways to incorporate those "Pony" personnel packages going forward. |
| Stylistically, this specific matchup seems to favor White over the other running backs. The Falcons have been one of the best defenses in the NFL at stopping man/gap rushing but have struggled vs. zone runs. Specifically, Atlanta has a league-high explosive run rate allowed and league-worst tackle rate on outside zone attempts. The Bucs use Irving and Sean Tucker more on man/gap rushers on the inside, while White is used more to attack the perimeter. His outside zone rush rate (49%) is the seventh-highest in the NFL, while neither other Tampa Bay back has a rate above 20%. White's best game as a rusher came against this Atlanta defense. It might simply be a better individual matchup for his rushing style than it is for Irving and Tucker. |
| The Falcons haven't allowed any huge rushing games but also have not held any starting running back under 4.0 yards per rush other than Najee Harris in Week 1. |
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| The Falcons have been one of the league's worst tackling units against running backs. This could be a game where the Bucs are able to control the game on the ground, and it would not surprise me to see Coen try to do just that, given the state of the WR room. Any of the Tampa trio is fine to start if you need them, with White being my preference of the bunch this week. |
| Jordan Mason could get back on track in a big way vs. Dallas |
| The Cowboys have one of the few defenses that has been worse at tackling running backs than the Falcons. Dallas also is one of the six teams with a worse defensive EPA per opponent outside zone rush than Atlanta. 58% of Mason's rushes have been outside zone runs, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. |
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| The Fantasy Points Data Suite grades San Fran's run-blocking matchup as the sixth-best in Week 8, and I'm totally comfortable going back to Mason even after a few disappointing games. |
| We're probably going to see a ton of rushing again from Houston |
| Joe Mixon has finished as a weekly top-three Fantasy RB in each of his three healthy starts. That's nuts. In Week 8, he faces a Colts defense that has the highest opponent rush rate over expectation, meaning offenses have chosen to run at an extremely high rate vs. Indy, even relative to expectations regarding the circumstances of each individual play. This Colts defense has been easy to attack everywhere, but teams have been especially down to run on Indy. |
| Bobby Slowik has been down to run on anybody, especially since losing Nico Collins. The Texans have the seventh-highest run rate over expectation since losing Collins, and only the Panthers had a higher rate in Week 7. Pass protection has been a massive problem lately. |
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| And so we are seeing Slowik lean into the ground game even more than usual. I'm not so sure that he'll find as much success in this matchup, though. The Colts have the fifth-best defensive EPA per opponent outside zone rush and the best tackle rate on outside rushes, and it's come on a large sample size (80 opponent outside zone runs, more than any team). Teams have found success running up the middle vs. Indy with DeForest Buckner sidelined, but outside zone runs have not worked. Mixon has been used as an outside zone rusher on 60% of his runs. My guess is that we see both teams try to lean on the ground game in one of the grossest matches of the week. |
| Are you starting Mixon this week? Surely. His Fantasy results have been crazy. But I'm not so sure that we can just copy/paste that going forward. He's probably not going to score multiple touchdowns every week. He might not pile up rushing yards as efficiently, either. If both forms of regression hit simultaneously, what is Mixon left with in terms of Fantasy outlook? He has yet to see more than three targets in a game with Houston, and I don't expect much change there. C.J. Stroud has the lowest RB target rate in the NFL since entering, and his collegiate rate was lower than any QB drafted in Round 1 over the past eight years. |
| Surely, you just start Mixon this week. I don't think that his outlook is as bulletproof as his Fantasy point totals may suggest, though. And the Fantasy RB position is so plentiful right now. I would not blame anyone for benching him in favor of any of the following options: |
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| Here are some of the Vegas team's implied totals for these backs: |
27.5 - David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs
26.5 - Josh Jacobs
26 - Mixon
25.75 - Aaron Jones
25.5 - Kareem Hunt
25.5 - Javonte Williams
25.25 - James Cook
25 - Jordan Mason
25 - De'Von Achane
24 - J.K. Dobbins
24 - Bijan Robinson
23 - D'Andre Swift
22.75 - Kyren Williams |
| I'd start Mixon ahead of most of those players, and I think that it makes sense to project his offensive environment to be better than most. I do wonder if maybe this Houston-Indy game might be a quick running-out of the clock that we mostly want to avoid for Fantasy, though. I definitely won't be targeting Mixon for DFS or prop-betting purposes. |
| Maybeee you can squeeze another week out of Tank Bigsby |
| I'm not optimistic. I've been trying to add Bigsby into trade packages anywhere that I can this week in anticipation of the upcoming schedules for the Jaguars. Bisby hasn't been used as a route-runner or pass-protector hardly at all. In Week 6, we saw the Jags lean more on D'Ernest Johnson when playing from behind. |
| In Week 8, Jacksonville is listed as a 4.5-point underdog, even in a return home. I think that makes sense. It's tough to feel much confidence in this Jags team. It's easy to simply write Bigsby off this week. |
| The more I think about it, though, I wonder if maybe he's not the worst start in the world. I still have Bigbsy ranked as just the RB31. But I think that you can start him if needed, and it realistically feels like more than just throwing up a Hail Mary. Before I get into the matchup analysis, here's the group of running backs I would consider starting him over: |
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| I moved Bigsby ahead of Tyrone Tracy, and I feel like a traitor to my people. Dan Schneier believes that the RB split we saw in Week 7 is indicative of what we can expect going forward, I'm more skeptical. I wonder if Devin Singletary gets more involved. That possibility feels similarly probable to Bigsby being phased out of the gameplan. And there's way more upside with Bigsby. The Giants have the lowest implied point total (15) of anyone in Week 8 after producing all of 119 yards of offense last week. The Jags are implied for 22 points. |
| Is Bigsby's outlook really that much different than Jonathan Taylor's? Do you feel more uncertainty around Bigsby's role or JT's ankle? Do we even know that JT is going to be an every-down back in his first game back? He could face similar phase-out risk to Bigsby if his team falls into a huge hole. And the Colts are implied for just 20.5 points and listed as 5.5-point dogs. |
| I think that Rhamondre Stevenson will find success against a Jets defense that has the worst RB tackling rate in the NFL, but he also could have another quiet day if the Pats struggle to move the ball. New England is implied for just 17.5 points. The Cowboys are implied for only 20.5 points. I don't really feel any confidence in Rico Dowdle in this spot. |
| As far as flex options go, Bigsby might make some sense. I could see the Jags playing well in this spot. I could see Bigsby again finding success on the ground. The Packers have a bottom-10 tackle rate vs. running backs, and the fifth-highest yards per rush (5.3) allowed on RB attempts up the middle. The Jags have pounded the middle with Bigbsy; 40% of his runs have come up the middle, the fourth-highest qualified rate. His most commonly-called run-blocking scheme is inside zone, and Green Bay has allowed a league-high opponent EPA per rush on inside zone attempts. |
| As I'm thinking about this matchup, I am reminded of the note that Rich Hribar gave Dan and I about how Miami's field is structured so that the Florida sunlight beams down on the opponent's sideline. That might come into play for De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert running against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is traveling after a short week (Monday night football) of practice and shifting to a time zone that is three hours ahead of theirs for an early kickoff. We'll get to them in a moment. The Jags don't have the same sideline stadium effect, but weather might play into some additional exhaustion for the Packers in Week 8. It's been in the 50's and 60's all week in Wisconsin. I wonder how Green Bay will handle the 85-degree Jacksonville heat on Sunday. |
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| Mixon just ran all over this Packers defense. I think that it's at least possible that Bigbsy could do something similar, and the Jaguars could keep the game within striking distance enough to prevent needing to completely abandon the run. And Trevor Lawrence is playing really well right now. I think the Jags might surprise people in this game. |
| The Dolphins are back? |
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| De'Von Achane was the RB2 in expected Fantasy points (source: FP Data Suite) in Week 1, even with Raheem Mostert playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He was the RB21 in XFP in Week 7, with Mostert playing 33% of the snaps. Achane handled 15 rushes to Mostert's 11. Jaylen Wright rushed five times. |
| If RB21 is the absolute floor for Achane's usage, we can work with that. That's incredible, honestly, considering the uncertainty around the backfield split entering the year. And with Tua Tagovailoa taking over for Snoop Huntley, that RB21 rate feels almost certain to skyrocket. Achane saw only three targets in Week 7. Tua is going to target the RB position way more than Huntley. |
| The Cardinals have a 12% missed tackle rate vs. running backs, that's a bottom-12 rate. This defense has been one to attack with running backs at times. Arizona does not stack the box hardly ever and often presents light boxes. And opponents have found the most success (still just middle of the pack, though) when attacking the outside, rather than the middle when rushing vs. this defense. I bring that note up because Achane has the lowest 'up the middle' rush rate among qualified running backs. |
| I'm extremely confident going back to Achane in this spot and will be centering my DFS strategy around him. I also think that you could consider plugging Mostert into the flex if needed. Only eight teams have a higher implied point total than the Dolphins in Week 8. |
| Week 8 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Jalen Hurts
QB3 - Lamar Jackson |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB8 - Kyler Murray
QB19 - Anthony Richardson
QB21 - Drake Maye |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB4 - Jordan Love
QB5 - Joe Burrow
QB6 - Sam Darnold
QB7 - Caleb Williams
QB9 - C.J. Stroud
QB10 - Geno Smith
QB11 - Jared Goff
QB12 - Brock Purdy
QB13 - Dak Prescott
QB14 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB15 - Patrick Mahomes
QB16 - Kirk Cousins
QB17 - Baker Mayfield
QB20 - Trevor Lawrence
QB22 - Aaron Rodgers
QB23 - Russell Wilson
QB24 - Jameis Winston
QB25 - Matthew Stafford |
| Tier 4 -- He's Daniel Jones |
QB18 - Bo Nix
QB26 - Daniel Jones |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB27 - Justin Herbert
QB28 - Marcus Mariota
QB29 - Spencer Rattler
QB30 - Gardner Minshew
QB31 - Mason Rudolph
QB32 - Bryce Young |
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| Running Backs |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Saquon Barkley
RB2 - Breece Hall
RB3 - Derrick Henry
RB4 - Kenneth Walker
RB5 - De'Von Achane
RB6 - Bijan Robinson
RB7 - Jordan Mason
RB8 - Joe Mixon
RB9 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB10 - Josh Jacobs
RB11 - Aaron Jones
RB12 - J.K. Dobbins
RB13 - Kyren Williams
RB14 - D'Andre Swift
RB15 - Kareem Hunt
RB16 - James Cook
RB17 - David Montgomery
RB18 - Javonte Williams
RB19 - James Conner
RB20 - Brian Robinson Jr. |
| This is nuts. I don't ever remember feeling such a difference in relative depth at the RB and WR positions. |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB21 - Chuba Hubbard
RB22 - Alvin Kamara (Q)
RB23 - Tony Pollard
RB26 - Jonathan Taylor (Q)
RB29 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB33 - Alexander Mattison |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB27 - Najee Harris
RB30 - Rico Dowdle
RB32 - Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB37 - Zack Moss
RB39 - Nick Chubb |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB23 - Chase Brown
RB25 - Rachaad White
RB28 - Bucky Irving
RB31 - Tank Bigsby
RB34 - Raheem Mostert
RB48 - Sean Tucker (last week's usage doesn't support a strong Fantasy outlook, but a "hot hand" could always shift usage towards one RB from this backfield) |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB35 - Jaylen Warren
RB36 - Austin Ekeler
RB38 - Tyler Allgeier
RB40 - D'Ernest Johnson
RB41 - Zach Charbonnet
RB42 - Ray Davis
RB43 - Roschon Johnson
RB44 - Tyler Goodson
RB45 - Justice Hill
RB46 - Ty Chandler
RB47 - Kimani Vidal
RB49 - Emanuel Wilson
RB50 - Jaleel McLaughlin |
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| Wide Receivers |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Justin Jefferson
WR2 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR3 - A.J. Brown
WR4 - Tyreek Hill
WR5 - CeeDee Lamb
WR6 - Drake London
WR7 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR11 - Stefon Diggs |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR8 - Jayden Reed
WR9 - Cooper Kupp
WR12 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR13 - Jaylen Waddle
WR14 - George Pickens
WR15 - Jauan Jennings (Q)
WR16 - Tee Higgins
WR17 - DJ Moore
WR18 - Davante Adams
WR20 - Garrett Wilson
WR21 - Zay Flowers
WR22 - DeVonta Smith
WR23 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR30 - Romeo Doubs
WR33 - Tyler Lockett |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
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WR10 - Malik Nabers (a result like last week's feels realistic in any given week now)
WR19 - Terry McLaurin |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR26 - Khalil Shakir
WR31 - DeMario Douglas
WR38 - Ladd McConkey
WR42 - Jakobi Meyers
WR43 - Christian Kirk |
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| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR24 - Amari Cooper
WR25 - Tank Dell
WR27 - Xavier Worthy
WR28 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR29 - Jordan Addison
WR32 - Chris Olave
WR35 - Rome Odunze
WR36 - Courtland Sutton
WR37 - Darnell Mooney
WR39 - Keenan Allen
WR40 - Jerry Jeudy
WR46 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR47 - Christian Watson
WR48 - Sterling Shepard
WR49 - Cedric Tillman
WR50 - Jalen McMillan
WR51 - Ricky Pearsall
WR52 - Tutu Atwell
WR56 - Keon Coleman |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR33 - Diontae Johnson
WR44 - Michael Pittman
WR45 - Calvin Ridley
WR53 - Josh Downs
WR54 - Jalen Tolbert
WR55 - Rashod Bateman
WR57 - Xavier Legette
WR58 - Tre Tucker
WR59 - Ray-Ray McCloud
WR60 - Joshua Palmer
WR61 - Bub Means
WR62 - Troy Franklin
WR63 - Michael Wilson
WR64 - Tim Patrick
WR65 - Andrei Iosivas |
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| Tight Ends |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - George Kittle (Q)
TE2 - Brock Bowers
TE3 - David Njoku
TE4 - Trey McBride
TE5 - Travis Kelce
TE6 - Tucker Kraft
TE7 - Jake Ferguson
TE8 - Evan Engram
TE9 - Cole Kmet
TE10 - Kyle Pitts
TE12 - Dalton Kincaid (I guess) |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
| TE11 - Sam LaPorta |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE13 - Cade Otton
TE14 - Hunter Henry
TE15 - Pat Freiermuth
TE16 - Noah Fant
TE17 - Zach Ertz
TE19 - Dalton Schultz
TE20 - Jonnu Smith
TE21 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE22 - Isaiah Likely
TE23 - Will Dissly
TE24 - Erick All Jr.
TE25 - Colby Parkinson |
| Tier 4 -- You broke my heart |
| TE18 - Mark Andrews |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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