RealClearInvestigations' Picks of the Week
May 31 to June 6, 2020 If computer models projecting the near-term future of the coronavirus pandemic were so wrong, what does that mean for the far more complicated climate computer models predicting the far-off future of the entire planet? As Eric Felten reports for RealClearInvestigations, quoting a range of experts worldwide, it means that people at the very least need to curb their enthusiasm for such predictions and be mindful of the policy goals -- i.e., politics -- behind them. Felten writes: - Influential computer models from Imperial College London and the University of Washington were badly off in projecting the course of the pandemic. Yet political leaders followed them -- to the detriment of many.
- Some said virus modeling saved lives by changing behavior. But that almost sounds like an argument for the politicization of science, from the coronavirus to climate change.
- Models are easily oversold with the impression of specificity. As one statistician told RealClearInvestigations, specific estimates -- 10,243 deaths, to take a recent example -- are a tipoff to the "fallacy of misplaced concreteness."
- In this, climate modeling and virus modeling are similar.
- But climate models have a leg up on virus models because they've been tested for decades.
- On the other hand, climate models do not confine themselves to a single phenomenon -- meaning more room for error. They factor in numerous submodels, each with its own uncertainties.
- Also, climate models get adjusted along the way, creating an appearance of accuracy. It's not done chaotically, as the epidemic model revisions have been, but rather in a systematic way that has been kept somewhat undercover.
- The climate model revisions are called "tuning," and were discussed in "The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning" by over a dozen climatologists in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2017.
- Some climate scientists deny that COVID-19 models and climate models are anything alike: "The former are empirical models driven by incomplete data; climate models are based on fundamental laws of physics and thermodynamics."
- But whether it's epidemiology or climate, a University of Sydney statistician says: "The data science community in particular needs a little more humility. It needs to hose down claims about Big Data being a crystal ball."
In a column for RCI's "Investigative Issues" feature, ex-New York Times journalist Alex Berenson offers an account of Amazon's censorship of his against-the-grain COVID-19 e-book -- and an excerpt from the book itself. The online retailer reversed itself this week amid an outcry from the likes of SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and journalist Glenn Greenwald. Highlights from Berenson: - He has developed a wide following on Twitter for detailed posts that challenge some mainstream reporting and government declarations about COVID-19.
- Sensing demand for a more accessible work, Berenson wrote the first of planned series of e-books: "Unreported Truths about COVID-19 and Lockdowns Part 1: Introduction and Death Counts and Estimates."
- He created covers for both the 6,500-word e-book and a paperback version this week, and uploaded the book.
- On Thursday, he found a note from Amazon in his inbox, saying the book was being withheld because it "does not comply with our guidelines" -- and that Amazon customers were being referred to "official" sources on the virus.
- Amazon did not offer Berenson any route to appeal.
- But after an outcry on Twitter (Musk: "This is insane @JeffBezos"), Amazon reversed itself, acknowledging an "error" without elaboration.
- Berenson writes that if Amazon "denies its readers a chance to see my work, I will lose the chance to reach the people who most need to learn the truth - those who don't already know it."
Quote from the book excerpt: For now, the crucial point is this: randomized antibody tests from all over the world have repeatedly shown many more people have been infected with coronavirus than is revealed by tests for active infection. Many people who are infected with SARS-COV-2 don't even know it. So the hidden part of the iceberg is huge. More Coronavirus Investigations Studies on Hydroxychloroquine Risks Pulled
Wall Street Journal
Top medical journals this week retracted major studies casting doubt on the ability of anti-malaria drugs championed by President Trump to treat COVID-19 patients. Both were based on data from a little-known Chicago company, Surgisphere Corp. The British medical journal The Lancet first pulled a study that found chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine provided no benefit as a covid treatment while increasing the risk of heart problems and death. The New England Journal of Medicine then retracted a separate article, published in early May, that examined the impact of cardiovascular and blood-pressure drugs in COVID-19 patients. The Lancet acted after more than 100 scientists and clinicians questioned the authenticity of a massive hospital database behind the influential study. In a separate article,the Guardian reportsthat the World Health Oorganization and a number of countries have changed their COVID-19 policies guided by flawed data from Surgisphere. Top U.S. Corona Hot Spots Are All Native American Lands
New York Times
If Native American tribes were counted as states, the five most infected states in the country would all be native tribes, according toa compilationby the American Indian Studies Center at UCLA. One tribe, the Navajo, have had more people infected with the coronavirus per capita than any state in the country. Many Navajo live crowded in small homes where social distancing is impossible, and 40 percent of those on the reservation lack running water. That makes hand-washing difficult, and it leads families to cluster in laundromats. Even before this pandemic, Navajo had a shorter life expectancy (72) than people in Guatemala (74) — and now COVID-19 is hitting Native Americans with particular force. U.S. Nursing Home Deaths: 26,000
Wall Street Journal
The first major federal effort to count coronavirus deaths in nursing homes tallied around 26,000, a total likely short of the full toll since 20% of nursing homes did not report the required data. A Wall Street Journal tally counted more than 42,000 covid-related deaths in long-term care facilities, along with more than 200,000 cases. This, too, likely undercounts the outbreak due to reporting lags and incomplete information from some states. In total, more than 104,000 deaths nationwide are linked to COVID-19, according to a count by Johns Hopkins University. How the WHO Lauded China in Public but Stewed Privately in Frustration
Associated Press
Throughout January, the World Health Organization publicly praised China for what it called a speedy response to the new coronavirus. But behind the scenes, the story as much different. The AP found significant delays by China and considerable frustration among WHO officials over not getting required information. Despite the plaudits, China sat on releasing the genetic map, or genome, of the virus for more than a week after three different government labs had fully decoded the information. Tight controls on information and competition within the Chinese public health system were to blame, according to dozens of interviews and internal documents. Chinese government labs released the genome only after another lab published it online Jan. 11. Even then, China stalled for at least two weeks more on details, according to recordings of internal meetings held by the U.N. health agency through January — all at a time when the outbreak arguably might have been dramatically slowed. Also Coronavirus-Related What Went Wrong at the Centers for Disease Control? New York Times
1.5B Kids Home in Pandemic. Many May Not Return to School,WSJ
Covid Rips Into Countries Previously SparedNew York Times
Now Covid Gear's Clogging Toilets, Sewers, Drains Associated Press Other Noteworthy Articles and Series Pallets of Bricks 'Randomly' Appear During Floyd Protests
Daily Mail
Growing evidence suggests that much of the violence after the death of George Floyd was not spontaneous. This article reports that pallets of bricks "randomly" appeared during protests across the U.S., sparking theories they were planted to stoke violence. Videos from New York City, Kansas City, Dallas and Fayetteville in North Carolina all appear to show piles of bricks unattended in the middle of protests, far from construction sites. In a separate article, Just the News reports law enforcement officials across the country say anarchists inflaming peaceful demonstrations are more organized and better coordinated and supplied than militants seen in civil discord in years. Fox News reports that Antifa radicals may be responsible for hijacking the demonstrations through a fairly high level of intelligence-sharing and organization. But the Washington Post reports that "white instigators" are to blame for the mayhem. The New York Times, meanwhile, is assailing "conservative commentators [who] are asserting with little evidence that Antifa … coordinated the riots and looting that sprang from the protests." The Powerline blog observes that the Minneapolis Star-Tribune quietly deleted a paragraph quoting sources dismissing as a "red herring" Governor Tim Walz's suggestion that white supremacists might be behind the violence. DEA Gets Temporary OK to Surveil Protesters
BuzzFeed
The Drug Enforcement Administration has been granted sweeping new authority to "conduct covert surveillance" and collect intelligence on people participating in protests over the police killing of George Floyd, according to a two-page memorandum obtained by BuzzFeed News. The DEA is limited by statute to enforcing drug-related federal crimes. On Sunday, Timothy Shea, a former U.S. attorney and close confidant of Attorney General William Barr who was named acting administrator of the DEA last month, received temporary approval to go beyond the agency's mandate "to perform other law enforcement duties" that Barr may "deem appropriate." New York: On Tapes, Mount Vernon Cops Say Innocent Are Framed
Gothamist
In hours of secretly recorded telephone conversations, police officers in Mount Vernon, New York, reveal widespread corruption, brutality and other misconduct in the troubled Westchester County city just north of the Bronx. Caught on tape by a whistleblower cop, the officers said they witnessed or took part in alarming acts of police misconduct, from framing and beating residents to collaborating with drug dealers, all as part of a culture of impunity within the department's narcotics unit. Trump-Russia/2020 Election News Biden Staff Back Bail Payers in Riotous Minneapolis Reuters
Democrats Worry Biden Inner Circle Too White New York Times
Top FBI Lawyer Boente's Ouster Tied to Flynn Role NBC News
Flynn Transcripts Confirm Mueller Team Misled Court Federalist
9 Issues to Watch in the Russia and Ukraine Scandals Just the News
Tara Reade's Tumultuous Journey New York Times |
