03/19/2020
Today

Beware the Fed Overpaying, & Subsidizing Bad Bets

Aaron Brown, RealClearMarkets

With all the dramatic public health and financial news of the last couple of weeks, thinking about ETF discounts may feel like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But these discounts provide...

Stimulus Won't Unleash a Bull, But May Give It Oomph

Market Minder, Fisher Inv.

Governments are about to unleash big sums of money. What it can?and can't?accomplish.

$1T Covid-19 Bill Adds Dangerously to Debt, Solves Little

Adam Brandon, Fox News

We will get through the coronavirus. But the debt and deficit will remain an existential threat to our nation. It is foolhardy to keep running up the national credit card without worrying about how to pay it off.

Trump's Top Brands Won't Save You, Only Government Can

Farhad Manjoo, NYT

America's failed response to the coronavirus is a direct result of decades of starving federal agencies of expertise.

Unintended Consequences of Gov't Mandated Isolation

Matt Kibbe, Free the People

I was chatting today with a doctor friend currently in the Philippines, wanting his take on measures to limit the contagion of COVID-19. “What do you think of all this craziness?” I asked. “The medical side of me thinks it almost makes sense to try and flatten the epidemic curve, but I feel non-medical people are making the decisions and a lot of it doesn’t make sense.” Philippine strongman Rodrigo Duterte has imposed a draconian quarantine there, first in Manila, and now on the entire island of Luzon, home to some 57 million people. It’s total chaos.

Economists, Don't Conflate Political Crack-Up with 'Recession'

John Tamny, RCM

Howard Marks has long made the point that the seeds of bad economic times are planted during the good times, and the seeds of good during bad. Marks's correct vision of recession and recovery...

A Case for Emergency Economic Relief Care of Feds

Beth Akers, Manhattan Institute

The Moment That CEOs Must Optimistically 'Lean In'

Sam Caucci, RealClearMarkets

Over the last 48 hours I have had two kinds of conversations with two kinds of CEOs. The first - is one deciding to cut costs, cut hours, cut payroll, and cut back. The second - is one...

In the Era of Coronavirus, It May Be a Time to Rethink Wealth

Mary Wald, The Hill

This need not have happened.

Reasons to Doubt Covid Death #s

William Luther, American Institute for Economic Research

A Costly Sick Leave Mandate Would Hurt Businesses

Rachel Greszler, USA Today

Government mandates often have unintended consequences. Take mandating paid sick leave in response to the coronavirus. Even if it’s temporary, it could further damage businesses harmed by the virus — and hurt the very workers it’s meant to help.

Impossible to Foresee Will Pass. We'll Be In a Better Place

Rafe Resendes, AFCM

The past four weeks have been surreal. The S&P500 lost nearly 30% of its value with extreme volatility day in and day out, and the busiest cities in the US and most of Europe are in lockdown. What happened in China is happening to a lot of us, and we didn't expect that. No country can fully prepare for events like this, unless they have experienced something similar before. Singapore, Taiwan, Hongkong, and South Korea have done a commendable job responding to Covid-19, possibly because they had the painful experience dealing with SARS (2003) and learned from it. The US [...more]

Don't Time Bottom, Don't Panic Sell

Daniel Kern & Renee Kwok, TFC Financial Management

What Do Recent Changes to FICO Scores Mean for Me?

Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, Charles Schwab

Trying to improve your credit score? This week's Ask Carrie, talks about the impact of recent FICO changes and how to maintain good credit.

Residential Construction Momentum Won't Be Sustained

Richard Moody, Regions

Ideas For Boosting Economy In Age of Coronavirus

Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution

Plans for economic mitigation from the coronavirus -- by Tyler Cowen We need a series of policies to achieve some rather complex ends, and in conjunction. Other than the obvious goals (?minimize human suffering?), these ends are: Scale down economic activity in a rapid way to keep people at ho...

Retail Sales Down 0.5% In February

Richard Moody, Regions Bank

How to Think About the Covid Pandemic

Brad McMillan, Commonwealth Financial Network

Fed May Use Dsct. Rate More Aggressively

Steve Englander, Standard Chartered Bank

Timeless Optimism Will Conquer Panic. Yet Again.

Todd Bliman, Fisher Investments

I believe optimism will eventually triumph over prevalent pessimism.

Painful Lessons Cautious Investors Sometimes Must Face

John Lim, MarketWatch

It?s hard to stay the course in both bull and bear markets

Myth That President & Fed Direct Stock Market

Barry Brownstein, Intellectual Takeout

The relationship between the stock market and interest rates is not what many believe.

Tax Reductions Could Deliver a Post-Covid Rebound

Conrad Black, New York Sun

When "Whatever It Takes" Isn't Enough

Willem Buiter, Project Syndicate

The US Federal Reserve's surprise weekend announcement of a large interest-rate cut, renewed quantitative easing, and other expansionary measures is a welcome response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But as markets were quick to note, monetary policy cannot save us from this crisis.

We're Not Going Back To Normal

Gideon Lichfield, MIT Technology Review

Social distancing is here to stay for much more than a few weeks. It will upend our way of life, in some ways forever.

Are The Markets Overreacting To COVID-19?

Eric Clemons, Knowledge@Wharton

How bad will COVID-19 really be?

Will Coronavirus Pandemic Cause a Recession?

Bruce Yandle, Washington Examiner

With the world and national count of affected coronavirus patients and deaths rising, along with news of shutdowns for entire countries and regions, economists and other analysts are busy clawing through the data in an attempt to offer informed opinions on how the U.S. economy will be affected. Frustratingly, the tragic outbreak is not the only disturbance affecting us. There are still trade wars, Middle East disturbances, and petroleum warfare between Russia and the Saudis ripping through markets.

BA Mirrors Economy. Doesn't Look Good.

David Gelles & Natalie Kitroeff, New York Times

The grounding of the 737 Max after two deadly crashes had already strained the company. The coronavirus is pushing it to the brink.

When Management Goes Bleak, It's a Tell-Tale Sign

Julie Segal, Institutional Investor

New research shows that 'bleak tone changes' strongly forecast lower future earnings and an increase in uncertainty.

Executives Taking Advantage of Stock Bargains: Their Own

Michael Brush, MW

The COVID-19 outbreak spells opportunity for executives who have faith in their companies

How Bad Will Economy Be Damaged By the Coronavirus?

Joseph Minarik, The Hill

The last few weeks have been a whirlwind for the financial market...

Fisher Investments on Election-Year Uncertainty: This, Too, Shall Pass

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Ken Fisher on Nixing the VIX

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Will Uncle Sam Force Big Tech to Break Up?

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Shattering the Debt Ceiling Myth

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Investing in Coronavirus, Warren-Buffet Style

Nick Fouriezos, Ozy

It's times like these when it pays to be to be bold, and not to panic.

Recession + Deflation = Real Panic

Scott Grannis, Calafia Beach Pundit

What's worse: a steep recession or falling prices? Answer: A steep recession AND falling prices.

Returns From the Bottom of Bear Markets

Ben Carlson, A Wealth Of Common Sense

How much more will we drop? No idea but we will bottom and stocks will rise again.

Coronavirus Could Be This Generation's World War II

Peter Suderman, Reason

The Mercatus economist on why the private sector could provide the best response to the coronavirus, why the government should go big anyway, and how the current crisis could help America reinvent itself.

What Sectors Are Most Undervalued?

Morningstar, Morningstar

We offer three picks in the most undervalued sector, energy.

A Long Way To The Bottom For Stocks

Macromon, Global Macro Monitor

Based on the both historic price action of the two financial bubbles that have burst in the past twenty years and our favorite valuation metric -- Market Capitalization-to-GDP or the Wilshire 5000 Index to Nominal GDP -- stocks still have about 30-35 percent to fall before we believe the "bottom is near."

Character in the Time of Coronavirus

Kevin Williamson, National Review

The character issue is not some lofty, rarefied concern for philosophy seminars. It has practical, urgent, day-to-day consequences that we ignore at our now literal peril.
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