09/04/2021
Today

How Close Is the U.S. Economy to Normal?

Sachin Nagarajan, Morningstar

It's close, but some industries are still recovering.

The True Economic Poison Is Pols "Doing Something"

Casey Carlisle, UncleNap

As a senior in high school, I ran for class president with "do the right thing" as my campaign slogan. Though I realized years ago how utterly pretentious that message is, I'm often reminded that it's good politics, which proves the point that politics is poison. To vote for someone else is to "do the wrong thing," and you don't want to be a bad person, do you? It's a sinister trick that comes in many phrases - all of which are highly effective in duping the majority - yet democracy is still deified. Just as "the science" insults the scientific method, "the right thing" has the capacity...

Has Covid Ended The Neoliberal Era?

Adam Tooze, The Guardian

The year 2020 exposed the risks and weaknesses of the market-driven global system like never before. It's hard to avoid the sense that a turning point has been reached

An Austrian Pandemic: The Fed Is Getting It Right

Paul Krugman, New York Times

Friedrich Hayek gave terrible policy advice.

On The Road To Our Next Minsky Moment

Robert Mulligan, AIER

"The Covid-19 recession was not triggered by financial causes, but the ballooning government debt the U.S. is currently pursuing, recklessly and with a vengeance, can only substitute a new unsustainable expansion for a sustainable recovery."

The Everything Bubble & TINA 2.0

Johns Capital, FTX Research

So are we in an everything bubble? There's most certainly pockets of excess in nearly every corner of the financial markets, but there's also ample opportunity.

The Anti-Bubble Years (Part I)

David Hay, Evergreen Gavekal

Bubbles now get tremendous amounts of press. Their counterparts, however, don't. In my 42 years of financial market experience, anti-bubbles are where immense amount of wealth are made and bubbles are where they are lost.

Time to Stop Believing Deficit Nonsense

Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture

What do you do if you have a philosophy that over the course of half a century, is continually proven wrong? I do not mean a little bit off, or theoretically askew, but verifiably, factually, quantifiably wrong? Do you admit the error and change course?

The Great Deflation of 2022

Michael Pento, PentoPort

The government lifeline to the economy is about to be cut.

You Too Can Dismantle White Supremacy, For Just $48

Jemima Kelly, FT

There is lots of money to be made by charging people to wash away their guilt.

Why Do We Work Too Much?

Cal Newport, The New Yorker

In the modern office, stress has become a default metric for judging whether we are busy enough.

Why Are People Choosing Gig Work?

Rani Molla, Vox

An astonishing one in three US workers does gig work now.

Dividends by the Numbers in August 2021

Ironman, Political Calculations

August 2021 was another strong month for dividend paying firms in the U.S. stock market.

Fed Policy Supports The Cyclical Rotation

Bryce Coward, Knowledge Leaders

Today at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no hurry to either taper asset purchases immediately or aggressively.

Common-Sense Policy Reforms for California Housing

Lee Ohanian, Cato

A few ideas to enhance affordability.

Unfinished Business In Building a More Stable System

Donald Kohn, Brookings

Don Kohn delivered remarks on financial stability at the August 2021 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

How Much Can You Spend in Retirement?

Rob Williams & Chris Kawashima, Schwab

How much can you spend in retirement without running out of money? The "4% rule" is a popular rule of thumb, but we think you can do better. Here are our guidelines for finding your personalized spending rate.

Negative-Yielding Bonds Are Like Options

Lauren Foster, Enterprising Investor

Anything that you want to price in finance has three key inputs, Vineer Bhansali says.

We Still Think Stocks Undervalued

Brian Wesbury & Robert Stein, First Trust Advisors

Will Biden Make a Historic Mistake at the Fed?

J. Bradford DeLong, PS

The past 30 years should have taught Democrats to put their own economic policy priorities before symbolic gestures of "bipartisanship." If US President Joe Biden does not replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with Lael Brainard, he will almost certainly regret it.

Why Investors Are Shrugging Off A Lousy Jobs Report

Paul R. La Monica, CNN

The August jobs report was a massive disappointment, with Corporate America hiring far fewer people than expected. But investors largely shrugged off the weaker jobs gains.

What Hurricane Ida Says About America's Future

Daniel A. Gross, Vox

The history of hurricanes like Katrina and Ida says a lot about America's future.

6 Retail Stocks on Sale

Jakir Hossain, Morningstar

Retailers posted solid numbers this earnings season, but we think their stocks are, in general, overbought--with some exceptions.

How Urban Employers Adapt To Work From Home

Eduardo Porter, NY Times

Offices are unlikely to be as full after the pandemic as they were before. Service businesses and their employees will have to adapt.

Bernard Baruch's Biggest Mistake

Jon Petersen, Novel Investor

Bernard Baruch's biggest mistake came early in his career. It was his quickest and largest loss ever and provided a lasting lesson.

The $150 Million Machine Keeping Moore's Law Alive

Will Knight, Wired

ASML's next-generation extreme ultraviolet lithography machines achieve previously unattainable levels of precision, which means chips can keep shrinking for years to come.

Why The Value Resurgence Is Far From Over

Ben Inker, GMO Quarterly Letter

Ben Inker addresses some of the objections we hear from investors who are hesitant to join us in betting strongly on value today.

Back to the Seventies?

Kenneth Rogoff, Project Syndicate

Many economists seem to view inflation as a purely technocratic problem, and most central bankers would like to believe that. In fact, the roots of sustained inflation mainly stem from political economy problems, and here the long list of similarities between the 1970s and today is unsettling.

Why Supply Shortages Are Here To Stay

Terry Nguyen, Vox

Supply chain delays, shortages, and delivery issues are here to stay.

Welcome to Cold War II

Ari David Blaff, Quillette

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the alarming extent of America's dependence on foreign countries.

The Fed Shouldn't Tackle Inequality

Allison Schrager, City Journal

Engaging in political issues would damage the institution.

Fisher Investments on Election-Year Uncertainty: This, Too, Shall Pass

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Ken Fisher on Nixing the VIX

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Shattering the Debt Ceiling Myth

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Private Equity's Build Back Better Payday

David Dayen, The American Prospect

Hundreds of billions of dollars are scheduled for industries private equity dominates. Advocates want to make sure workers and families benefit, not financiers.

Sorry FTC, Facebook Still Isn't A Monopoly

Ben Thompson, Stratechery

The FTC's new Facebook case isn't any better than the old one, even as there are ever more questions about the potential harm of regulatory interference

Little Flaws

Morgan Housel, Collaborative Fund

Some small flaws I've noticed in humans.

Social Security Will Be Insolvent in 12 Years

Eric Boehm, Reason

Without policy changes, beneficiaries will receive only 78 percent of what was promised starting in 2034.

What's Wrong With Gold? Nothing...

Scott Grannis, Calafia Beach Pundit

People keep asking why gold isn't going up with inflation. It already did.

Everything Goes to Zero in the Long Run

Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism

Is all crypto going to zero?

What Does Transitory Mean?

Steven Vannelli, Knowledge Leaders

The economy is slowing but inflation isn't.
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