04/04/2020
Today

LT COVID Economic Impact: Less Than 2008

Preston Caldwell & Karen Andersen, MStar

Our outlook on how the U.S. will cope during and after the shutdown.

We Don't Need to Be Forced to Adapt to New, C-19 Reality

Phillip Magness, AIER

If you derive no other takeaway from the political response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, let it be this: human behavior adapts in real-time to ever-changing expectations of the future. We make decisions based on imperfect bits and pieces of information available to us, and use them to mitigate the uncertainties that lie ahead.

Empty Shelves Courtesy of Price Controls

Harold Furchtgott-Roth & Kirk Arner, RCM

Hoarding & Stockpiling Aren't Causing Toilet Paper Shortage

Will Oremus, Medium

In Time of Global Crisis, Private Sector Can Answer the Call

Chris Garcia, RCM

How COVID-19 Is Transforming Manufacturing

Dalia Marin, Project Syndicate

As the COVID-19 pandemic escalates, the advanced economies seem to be geared up for a manufacturing renaissance. But while this may reduce risks for large firms, it probably will not benefit very many advanced-economy workers, let alone the developing countries from which production is being shifted.

Equity Ownership by Gov't Would Be a Step Too Far

Allison Schrager, City Journal

Washington is rightly stepping in to help troubled companies during the pandemic, but taking equity ownership would be a step too far.

The Shock Cycle: Ignore, Deny, Panic, Accept

Morgan Housel, Collaborative Fund

You react to bad and good news in a predictable cycle.

Be Skeptical Of Rapid Recovery Predictions

Bart van Ark & Erik Lundh, CNN Business

If American businesses prepare for this long, grueling haul, they can emerge from the crisis stronger.

Who Will Win The War On Covid-19?

Louis-Vincent Gave, Evergreen Gavekal

Who will "win" the War on Covid-19? The US, Europe and China?

We're All Larry Davids Now

David Sims, The Atlantic

Who isn’t suspicious of other people, overtly worried about hygiene, and trigger-happy with a bottle of hand sanitizer?

The Wall Street Journal Hits a Gusher of Oil Market Nonsense

David Simon, RCM

Covid Econ Impact Will Be Less Than '08

Preston Caldwell & Karen Andersen, Morningstar

Our outlook on how the U.S. will cope during and after the shutdown.

Distinction Between a Company & Its Stock Price

Chris Brightman, Research Affiliates

All companies are getting walloped in the current market. Which stocks are the true bargains, likely to outperform when the market rebounds? Chris Brightman explains that the outlook for a company's prospects can be very different from the outlook for its stock's performance.

Investment-Grade Bonds: What Income-Focused Must Know

Collin Martin, Schwab

Should I Change My Investment Strategy?

Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, Charles Schwab

If retirement is on the horizon, should you get out of stocks in today's environment? Jumping in and out of stocks isn't a strategy, says Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz. Instead, look at the big picture.

ISM Manufacturing: Headline Number Overstates Case

Richard Moody, Regions Bank

With Volatility Comes Opportunity

Rob Arnott & Feifei Li, Research Affiliates

Rob Arnott shares his perspective on the ongoing market. He suggests the time to buy is when investors are at "peak fear." In the weeks ahead, that point will come and bargains will make themselves self-evident to the disciplined investor. The window of opportunity will be short, but highly rewarding over the longer term.

Don't Let Covid-19 Lead to More Gov't

Brian Wesbury & Robert Stein, First Trust Advisors

We Can't Destroy the U.S. Economy for the Sake of NYC

David Marcus, The Federalist

I imagine there are some people who love New York City more than I do, but I do love it. I love it with fervor of the convert. A Philadelphian by birth, for 20 years I have now walked the storied steel canyons of the world’s current capital. There’s a reason the United Nations meets here, why artists and would-be stock barons alike come here. Now we are in the grip of the coronavirus, locked down. But our peril must not mean that the nation we represent must be destroyed.

Already In a Recession, Can We Make It Short?

Jay Shambaugh, Brookings Institution

The Hamilton Project seeks to advance America's promise of opportunity, prosperity, and growth.

More Than Ever, We Need Information to Flow Freely & Openly

John Matze, RCM

With the novel coronavirus pandemic sweeping our nation, governments, corporations, and private citizens are going to great lengths to try to contain its spread. Gatherings are being canceled or...

A Much Broader Swath of Joblessness

Ben Casselman & Patricia Cohen, New York Times

After the initial impact of shutdowns on a few industries, the coronavirus pandemic is leaving a much broader swath of unemployment.

Workforce Inequalities Must Be Addressed Now

Rosa M. García & Livia Lam, The Hill

The impact of the coronavirus is having rippling effects on the economy and on the workforce. Measures must be put in place to insulate workers from the current and future economic or health crises.

Mortgage Firms Teeter Near a Crisis Regulators Envisioned

Joe Light, Bloomberg

The CARES Act Could Ultimately Prove a Barrier to Work

Noah Williams, City Journal

Federal expansion of jobless benefits is necessary but may impede recovery.

Nothing Can Stop This Hedge Fund Soap Opera

Amanda Cantrell, Institutional Investor

Not even a global pandemic.

After Best/Worst of Times,Which Way Now?

Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management

We had the best of times and the worst of times - all in March.

Zucman & Saez Can't Be Serious

Phillip Magness, American Institute for Economic Research

"Never let a crisis go to waste,” the old adage goes. Unfortunately, political activists and public officials from across the spectrum are now taking this advice to heart amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. While many policy responses to the current crisis are well-meaning, even if misguided, be vigilant of those who would cynically weaponize it to advance their pre-COVID ideological goals. We may see this latter tendency in a new proposal by Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, the data-massaging duo behind a flurry of misleading and false...

Several Warning Signs of Layoffs On the Way

Geoff Williams, U.S. News & World Report

The coronavirus has put a lot of employees on edge. Look for these signs of layoffs in your company.

High Jobless Numbers Show CARES Doing Job

Allison Schrager, Manhattan Institute

Fisher Investments on Election-Year Uncertainty: This, Too, Shall Pass

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Ken Fisher on Nixing the VIX

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Will Uncle Sam Force Big Tech to Break Up?

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

Shattering the Debt Ceiling Myth

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, Fisher Investments

A Mistake In The Virus Models?

Greg Mankiw, Greg Mankiw's Blog

The current models have a major omission.

Can The SBA Handle The CARES Act Crush?

Veronique de Rugy, National Review

The CARES Act was praised for approving $350 billion to assist small businesses.

The Craziest Month in Stock Market History

Nick Maggiulli, Of Dollars & Data

Quantifying just how crazy March 2020 was for the stock market and investors.

Inherent Uncertainty

Bob Seawright, Above the Market

During a crisis like this it is easy to recognize that our lives are inherently uncertain.

The Common Sense Way To Stop Spreading the Virus

Ed Yardeni, Dr. Ed's Blog

Masks for everyone.

A Long Way Down To Value

Macromon, Global Macro Monitor

Stocks would have to fall another 40% to reach prior bear market valuation lows.

A Bull Market You Probably Haven't Noticed

Emiko Terazono, Ozy

Globally, the markets are down, and the economy is floundering. What's in demand? Vitamin C.
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