Note: Use ‘Link to PDF’ to view the full array of high-frequency, economic, and financial charts covered in this report
Link to PDF: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights | |||||||
Highlights |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· The number of seated diners from reservations has soared through February, according to OpenTable, reflecting declining COVID-19 incidence and pent-up demand for leisure and hospitality. | |||||||
· Russian aggression on Ukraine and strong global demand for oil have boosted prices of Brent and WTI to fresh highs and will feed through into already elevated prices at the pump; a renewed surge in energy costs would accentuate inflationary pressures and, depending on the magnitude, could impinge on economic activity | |||||||
· Daily COVID-19 cases have declined precipitously from their January peak; the seven-day moving average of new cases ticked down to 100k, just 12% of their peak. Despite the recent decline, daily COVID-19 cases remain elevated - for comparison, the peak of the delta wave of infections saw daily cases rise to ~150k. | |||||||
· Retail and recreation mobility trends have retraced a significant portion of their January decline, climbing to just 11% below the pre-pandemic baseline; measures of in-person economic activity, including mobility, should improve with the onset of spring/summer weather and fading public health concerns. | |||||||
· The used vehicle market has likely reached an inflection point: the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index ticked down 1.5% over the first two weeks of February and declined at an accelerating rate while used retail days' supply is 12 days higher than this time one year ago, pointing to a moderation of used vehicle prices. | |||||||
· Random length lumber futures surged ~$350 over the month, reflecting ongoing supply constraints including floods and transportation bottlenecks that have curtailed logging and shipping; elevated lumber prices have contributed substantially to the increased cost of new home construction. | |||||||
Week ahead: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Feb 22); New Home Sales (Feb 24); Personal Income, PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders (Feb 25) |
Link to PDF: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com
© 2022 Berenberg Capital Markets, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC
Remarks regarding foreign investors. The preparation of this document is subject to regulation by US law. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons, into whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. United Kingdom This document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers. Copyright BCM is a wholly owned subsidiary of Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (“Berenberg Bank”). BCM reserves all the rights in this document. No part of the document or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the BCM’s prior written consent. Berenberg Bank may distribute this commentary on a third party basis to its customers.
Member FINRA & SIPC
This email and any files or attachments transmitted with it may contain confidential or privileged information and are intended solely for the use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not copy, retain, disclose or use any part of the message or its attachments. Please notify the sender immediately by return email and destroy or delete any copies. Dissemination or use of this information by anyone other than the intended recipient is unauthorized and may be illegal. Communications by email cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. Emails and their attachments are subject to being intercepted, becoming corrupted, getting lost or delayed, or may contain viruses. Therefore, neither the sender nor Berenberg Capital Markets LLC (BCM) accepts any liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this message or problems in its transmission, including those arising as a result of its transmission over the internet.
BCM does not assume liability for the correctness and completeness of all information given and/or attachments contained herein. The provided information has not been checked by a third party, especially an independent auditing firm. BCM explicitly points to the stated date of preparation. The information given can become incorrect due to passage of time and/or as a result of legal, political, economic or other changes. BCM does not assume responsibility to indicate such changes and/or to publish an updated document. Any document(s) or attachment(s) is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers.
In light of upcoming regulatory changes, please be informed that BCM will continue to share information with you until unsubscribe@berenberg-us.com receives your termination/deletion request. For more information about the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and our privacy policies please refer to https://www.berenberg-us.com/legal-notice. BCM reserves all the rights in this communication. No part of this communication or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without BCMâs prior written consent.
The information contained herein and sourced may have been adopted from various news sources, for example, Bloomberg, Reuters, Street Account and various other sources. BCM does not claim accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability, or otherwise regarding all the information on the securities, stock markets, or developments referred to within. On no account should the Content be regarded as a substitute for the recipient procuring information for himself/herself or exercising his/her own judgments. BCM is not responsible for any recipient(s) use of this information. This Content is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any of the securities contained herein. This information does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this Content is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of securities which may be referred to in this Content and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain securities.