Note: Use ‘Link to PDF’ to view the full array of high-frequency, economic, and financial charts covered in this report

 

Link to PDF: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse

 

Real-Time Insights

Highlights

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

· Container shipping rates ticked up in February and remain almost 5x their levels in 2019; the threat of COVID-19 outbreaks at key ports in Asia and geopolitical risks that could disrupt trade flows through Europe may skew supply chain risks to the upside in the near term. 

· The number of seated diners from reservations has recovered sharply through February across the U.S.; the seven-day moving average rose to 4% above its pre-pandemic baseline, reflecting declining public health concerns and pent-up demand for services.

· Agricultural commodity prices have been rising for months; Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of agricultural commodities and fertilizers, raising upside risks. This will put upward pressure on U.S. inflation and pose potential risks to EM nations.

· U.S. oil production has been constrained and remains ~1.4m barrels per day below its pre-pandemic level, reflecting regulatory constraints; production is likely to increase in coming months as the Biden administration eases up on its anti-oil stance.

· The U.S. oil and gas rig count continues to retrace its 2020 decline but remains below its pre-pandemic level; major oil producers have committed to substantial increases in capital expenditure but this will only impact production in the medium/long run, raising the risks of  potential disruptions to global oil and gas supply out of Russia.

· Daily COVID-19 cases continue to recede, prompting an easing of public health restrictions and mandates; the emergence of the new and more transmissible omicron variant BA.2 highlights the continued public health risks posed by COVID-19.

Week ahead: ISM Manufacturing, Wards Vehicle Sales (Mar 1); Powell Testimony Before Congress (Mar 2/Mar 3); ISM Services, Factory Orders (Mar 3); Employment Report (Mar 4)

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

 

 

Link to PDF: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse

 

Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com

 

Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com

 

© 2022 Berenberg Capital Markets, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC

 

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