Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights | |||||||
Highlights |
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· Although the seven-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in China continues to recede (falling to 12,000 on May 8), strict lockdown measures remain in place in Shanghai, portions of Beijing, and other cities, disrupting production and trade. Chinese export growth softened markedly on a yr/yr basis in April. | |||||||
· Used vehicle prices extended their decline into April, according to data from Manheim, falling 1% m/m on a seasonally-adjusted basis (although unadjusted prices rose 2.9% relative to March). Notably, Manheim also estimates a 13% m/m and 20% yr/yr decline in used vehicle retail sales in April. Declining used vehicle prices are likely to weigh on sequential core inflation prints in coming months. | |||||||
· Container spot shipping rates extended their decline in April, falling ~4%, according to Drewry's World Container Composite Index, but remain well above their pre-pandemic levels while new container prices have declined to below $3,000 from $3,400 in Q4. A protracted slowdown in Chinese and European manufacturing output could contribute to further declines in shipping costs. | |||||||
· In-person dining in the U.S. has largely recovered to its pre-pandemic trends, according to data from OpenTable, on numbers of seated diners from reservations, although the seven-day moving average of seated diners ticked down over the last week. While continued economic reopening is likely to continue to support spending on dining and food services, the recent pickup in domestic COVID-19 cases could prompt a modest pullback from at-risk diners (seven-day moving average of new cases has doubled to 70k from April - May). | |||||||
· Measures of retail & recreation and workplace visits from Google continue to improve but remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Notably, retail and recreation visits remain below levels set during mid-late 2021, even as nominal spending has soared. | |||||||
· Traveler throughput at U.S. airports has rebounded close to pre-pandemic levels ahead of the summer holiday season but has edged down in recent weeks, with the seven-day moving average falling to 2.1 million. Sharp increases in jet fuel and other costs have pushed airfares up 20% in the last three months, although they remain 6% below pre-pandemic levels. | |||||||
Week ahead: NFIB Small Business Optimism (May 10); CPI (May 11); PPI (May 12); U. of Mich. Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (May 13) |
Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com
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