Reasserting American Power in the Middle East: A Blueprint for the Trump Administration

By Middle East Forum Staff ● Dec 02, 2024

Smart Brevity^® count: 7 mins...1840 words

MEF's New Policy Proposals for the Trump Administration

👋 Situational awareness: The Middle East Forum releases Reasserting American Power in the Middle East, 2025–2029, a strategic roadmap for the incoming Trump administration. You can download the paper here.

Access Proposal Here

🔔 Key Insights:

The report addresses critical flaws in U.S. Middle East policy, highlighted by the October 7 Hamas massacre and subsequent events.
It outlines five key domains for action: regional security, leveraging alliances, addressing Qatar's influence, enhancing homeland security, and reforming border security.

📅 Why this matters:

Rapid changes in regional dynamics underscore the urgency for a comprehensive strategic reset.
The proposals set the stage for decisive reforms in U.S. policy to restore American power and protect interests at home and abroad.

Let's dive into the details!

Reasserting American Power in the Middle East

The Middle East remains strategically vital, and American leadership is crucial to counter threats and promote stability.

Why it matters: For a global audience, understanding the U.S.'s role in Middle East stability is crucial to grasp the broader geopolitical landscape.

The recent fragility highlighted by events underscores the need for a cohesive U.S. strategy to maintain influence and safeguard national interests.

The big picture: The Trump administration's policy proposals focus on Iran, Saudi Arabia, and interconnected challenges like extremism and border security.

These actions aim to restore American leadership and protect national interests in a volatile region.

The bottom line: The administration must coordinate across agencies and build coalitions to ensure success.

Key actions include enhancing support for allies and implementing domestic reforms, with a focus on maintaining regional stability and security.

Trump's Middle East Policy Proposals

The Trump administration plans to overhaul U.S. military presence and address critical Middle East challenges, emphasizing strategic realignment and robust policy measures.

Why it matters: Determining the optimal U.S. military presence in the Middle East is crucial for advancing policy objectives and ensuring regional stability.

Bases like Al Udeid in Qatar are under scrutiny due to Qatar's relationships with terrorist organizations.
Exploring alternative basing options in Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Israel could realign regional partnerships and influence.
Sentiments from regional partners and opponents will guide strategic basing decisions.

Comprehensive Houthi strategy: The Iran-backed Houthi insurgency in Yemen poses a significant threat to regional stability and global trade.

Expanded sanctions targeting Iranian networks and local Houthi funding are critical to disrupting their operations.
Enhanced maritime interdiction efforts, coordinated with regional allies, aim to curtail Iranian arms transfers.
Military collaboration with Saudi Arabia is vital for cohesive air campaigns and reducing civilian casualties.
Covert operations and support for local militias are essential to degrading Houthi military capabilities from within.

Navigating U.S.-Qatar relations: Trump's past policies toward Qatar were inconsistent, impacting military and diplomatic engagements.

Future strategies should press Qatar to implement effective anti-terrorism reforms and reconsider its status as a Major Non-NATO Ally.
Enhancing transparency in Qatari funding of U.S. institutions and media outlets like Al Jazeera is crucial for accountability.

Strengthening Saudi ties: Saudi Arabia's leadership in the Gulf presents strategic opportunities for the U.S. to counterbalance Iran's influence.

Saudi Arabia's involvement in post-war Gaza reconstruction and securing the Red Sea is pivotal for regional stability.
Early engagement with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could solidify U.S.-Saudi relations, leveraging economic reforms and regional influence.
Saudi Arabia's role in mitigating the Houthi threat aligns with broader U.S. strategic objectives.

What’s next: The administration's success hinges on effective coalition-building, diplomatic management, and strategic resource allocation.

A balanced approach in military presence, diplomatic engagements, and regional partnerships is essential for achieving long-term stability and countering Iranian influence.

Strategic Challenges for U.S. in the Middle East

The U.S. stands at a pivotal point in redefining its Middle East policy amid escalating regional and domestic security challenges.

Why it matters: As the Trump administration prepares for 2025-2029, addressing regional security, counterterrorism, and institutional reforms is crucial for maintaining stability.

An assertive Iran and complex Gulf state dynamics pose persistent threats.
Domestic concerns include border control and educational reform.

The big picture: Iran's influence through proxy networks is the central threat, compounded by domestic security concerns.

Tehran's control over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen demands comprehensive responses.
Recent activities, including Hamas operations, highlight the urgency of strategic responses.

Details: Domestically, the U.S. must address border security and educational integrity.

Special Interest Alien crossings and weak vetting pose risks.
Campus extremism and foreign influence in education require urgent reform.

What’s next: The administration's success depends on coalition-building and effective resource allocation.

Priorities include enhanced border security, educational reform, and sustainable funding mechanisms.
Initial estimates suggest $5–7 billion for border security and $2–3 billion annually for educational oversight.

U.S. Middle East Strategy: Key Frameworks

Palestinian protestors in front of the White House.

The U.S. must confront Iran's influence and proxy networks under the Trump administration's enhanced “maximum pressure” strategy.

Why it matters: Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy control in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen pose a significant threat to regional stability.

The strategy aims for regime change in Tehran through sanctions and support for opposition movements.

Domestic security focus: The U.S. faces rising extremism and border security challenges.

A Commission on Islamism is crucial for addressing domestic threats and reforming screening processes.

Educational reforms: Higher education faces unprecedented challenges from foreign influence and antisemitism.

Stronger oversight and enforcement, particularly of the DETERRENT Act, are essential for campus security.

What’s next: Success depends on strategic partnerships, coalition-building, and resource allocation.

The bottom line: The administration must carefully balance immediate needs with long-term investments to achieve stability.

Confronting Iran: U.S. Strategy in the Middle East

Iran poses the central challenge to U.S. interests in the Middle East, necessitating a comprehensive strategy to counter its influence.

Why it matters: Iran's proxy control over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen threatens U.S. regional security architecture and aims to replace the U.S.-led order with a Tehran-centered power structure.

Past strategies, including the JCPOA, failed to curb Iran's ambitions, necessitating a regime change-focused approach.
The "maximum pressure" campaign must evolve, incorporating renewed sanctions and support for internal opposition.

Qatar's dual role: The U.S. must reassess its reliance on Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, given its support for extremist groups.

Consider alternatives in Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Israel while managing regional sensitivities.
The Qatar Risk Reporting Act and enhanced FARA enforcement should address its influence on U.S. institutions.

Saudi opportunities: Deepening cooperation with Saudi Arabia aligns with U.S. objectives, leveraging economic reforms and regional influence.

Public engagement with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is crucial for strategic alignment.
Saudi Arabia's role in post-war Gaza reconstruction and Red Sea security enhances regional stability.

Syria and Iraq: The U.S. must maintain strategic advantages in Syria and contain Iranian influence in Iraq.

Support for Kurdish allies in Syria and Iraq is vital for regional balance.
The de facto partition of Syria requires distinct policy approaches to prevent jihadist control and counter Assad's regime.
In Iraq, countering the "deep state" created by Iran through Shia militias is essential for preserving U.S. interests.

Lebanon and Kurdish policy: Addressing Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanon requires rethinking U.S. support for the Lebanese Armed Forces.

Embrace Kurdish populations as strategic allies to limit Iranian access to the Mediterranean.

What's next: Success hinges on strategic partnerships, coalition-building, and effective resource allocation.

The focus should be on sustainable funding and long-term investments to achieve regional stability.

Trump's Implementation Frameworks: Key Priorities

The transition period post-2024 election is critical for shaping Trump's administration policies, focusing on immediate executive actions.

Why it matters: The first 100 days will set the tone for an aggressive reform agenda with priorities like reinstating travel restrictions and launching the Commission on Islamism.

Enhanced border controls, expanded deportation programs, and strengthened oversight mechanisms are top priorities.

Operational focus: Interagency coordination through the National Security Council will streamline decision-making and information sharing.

State and local integration will enhance enforcement capabilities, with expanded 287(g) agreements and direct federal support to border states.

Private sector role: Mandated cooperation in banking oversight and technology implementation will require new legal frameworks.

Enhanced reporting and mandatory cooperation frameworks will ensure alignment with national security goals.

What's next: Success hinges on technological infrastructure, personnel development, and effective public communication strategies.

Crisis response protocols require centralized structures, rapid decision-making, and regular training exercises.

Managing Risks in Trump's Reform Agenda

The Trump administration plans to overhaul U.S. military presence and address critical Middle East challenges, emphasizing strategic realignment and robust policy measures.

Why it matters: Determining the optimal U.S. military presence in the Middle East is crucial for advancing policy objectives and ensuring regional stability.

Bases like Al Udeid in Qatar are under scrutiny due to Qatar's relationships with terrorist organizations.
Exploring alternative basing options in Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Israel could realign regional partnerships and influence.
Sentiments from regional partners and opponents will guide strategic basing decisions.

Comprehensive Houthi strategy: The Iran-backed Houthi insurgency in Yemen poses a significant threat to regional stability and global trade.

Expanded sanctions targeting Iranian networks and local Houthi funding are critical to disrupting their operations.
Enhanced maritime interdiction efforts, coordinated with regional allies, aim to curtail Iranian arms transfers.
Military collaboration with Saudi Arabia is vital for cohesive air campaigns and reducing civilian casualties.
Covert operations and support for local militias are essential to degrading Houthi military capabilities from within.

Navigating U.S.-Qatar relations: Trump's past policies toward Qatar were inconsistent, impacting military and diplomatic engagements.

Future strategies should press Qatar to carry out effective anti-terrorism reforms and reconsider its status as a Major Non-NATO Ally.
Enhancing transparency in Qatari funding of U.S. institutions and media outlets like Al Jazeera is crucial for accountability.

Strengthening Saudi ties: Saudi Arabia's leadership in the Gulf presents strategic opportunities for the U.S. to counterbalance Iran's influence.

Saudi Arabia's involvement in post-war Gaza reconstruction and securing the Red Sea is pivotal for regional stability.
Early engagement with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could solidify U.S.-Saudi relations, leveraging economic reforms and regional influence.
Saudi Arabia's role in mitigating the Houthi threat aligns with broader U.S. strategic objectives.

What’s next: The administration's success hinges on effective coalition-building, diplomatic management, and strategic resource allocation.

A balanced approach in military presence, diplomatic engagements, and regional partnerships is essential for achieving long-term stability and countering Iranian influence.

The incoming Trump administration faces a critical opportunity to address the interconnected challenges of the Middle East and domestic security with bold, decisive action. From confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and proxy networks through maximum pressure and potential regime change to recalibrating relationships with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the stakes are high for regional stability. Domestically, rising campus extremism and foreign influence in higher education demand urgent reform, alongside strengthened border security to protect against terrorism and lawlessness.

Success will require unprecedented coordination across federal agencies, the ability to build coalitions, and resilience against institutional resistance. The administration’s policies must not only achieve immediate results but also establish sustainable frameworks that safeguard national security, strengthen alliances, and uphold democratic institutions, ensuring long-term stability and America’s leadership in an increasingly volatile world.

Download the Proposal

For more information, please contact us by e-mail at info@meforum.org or by phone at 215-546-5406.

Middle East Forum

Was this edition useful?

Your responses are anonymous

MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government.

Copyright © 2024 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:

Middle East Forum
1650 Market Street, Suite 3600
Philadelphia, PA 19103

Unsubscribe

This email was sent by Middle East Forum via Axios HQ