| Because of HTS’ history as an affiliate of al-Qaida, there has been some scepticism over whether it is really in a position to oversee a transition to a democratic, pluralistic society. “People are afraid,” Bethan said. “Minorities like the Alawites, Assad’s sect, are worried about being targeted for the crimes of the regime. So far that’s not happening, but it is tense. One thing that really comes across travelling around the country is that these are just different worlds, that have been kept separate for 14 years because the regime kept it that way, and it’s not clear what the starting point for consensus will be.” Sharaa has sought to calm fears of sectarian violence. In a meeting with members of the Druze religious minority, he said: “Syria must remain united. There must be a social contract between the state and all religions to guarantee social justice.” There has also been a promise not to impose religious dress codes on women, and Sharaa says that he believes in education for women, noting in this BBC interview that in rebel-held Idlib, “we’ve had universities for more than eight years”. On the other hand, Bethan noted, Sharaa was evasive in the same interview about whether the hijab would be mandatory. “We should take what he’s saying seriously, and the fact that they’re engaging at all is a good thing – but it’s also true that he sees himself as a spiritual, religious person, and some of this is against what he believes in on a personal level.” Rebuilding infrastructure “The scale of the devastation is just astonishing,” Bethan said. “The whole country is in ruins, other than a couple of bougie neighbourhoods in Damascus. Everywhere else feels like a battleground.” The costs of reconstruction are hard to pin down, but estimates from 2019 quoted by the Carnegie Middle East Center put them at somewhere between $250bn and $400bn. In 2010, Syria’s GDP was estimated at $60bn. But the oil and agriculture industries which were once mainstays of the country’s economy have since been devastated, and the official GDP figure in 2023 stood at $10bn. Support from international partners will therefore be crucial to any attempt to rebuild the country. The EU and US still have sanctions in place for now, and say that they will only be lifted subject to significant steps towards an inclusive, non-sectarian government; one significant milestone on Friday was Washington’s decision to remove a $10m bounty on Sharaa. But while most experts say that helping to rebuild Syria is a vital step for western security, Donald Trump may not be willing to provide US support. In 2018, his administration contributed nothing to an $8bn UN fund for humanitarian aid, an unprecedented refusal. “I think it is likely that Gulf states will pay for a lot of the reconstruction,” Bethan said. “They have the resources to do so. But it is a mammoth task. The UN said that it could take 80 years to rebuild Gaza; for Syria you have to multiply that up.” A constitution and new elections If Syria is to establish itself as a stable, peaceful state, it will need to embed the new settlement in the country’s democratic institutions – starting with parliament. To that end, a spokesperson for the new government said that the Syrian constitution and parliament would be suspended during a three-month transition period, and a judicial and human rights committee established to propose amendments to the constitution. It is likely that any new constitution will seek to include safeguards against a return to autocratic rule, like requirements for a supermajority for major constitutional changes and guarantees of seats in parliament for minorities. One question is whether exiled members of civil society will be brought into the process: “There are people in the diaspora who have been working on ways to put the country back together for 14 years,” Bethan said. “They could be hugely important. But whether HTS thinks that is another question, and these are not people who are likely to pick up guns to guarantee their place in the conversation.” The Guardian’s leading article today calls on Sharaa to “entrust drafting the constitution to an elected assembly or one inclusive of Syrian diversity, not a hand-picked committee of like-minded allies.” Sharaa, for his part, has said that the constitution will be written by “a Syrian committee of legal experts” and that “any ruler or president will have to follow the law”. He pointed to HTS’s rule in Idlib as a useful template for the national project. That is a vexed reference point, Bethan said. “Idlib is not a free place – you can go up to someone on the street and ask what they think of HTS, and they’re not going to say they hate them. It is orderly, but not free. That was preferable to Assad for a lot of people when he was still in power. But now he is gone, the whole horizon is open.” | 