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Bitcoin Market Journal

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HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS

March 9, 2022

"I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for ten years."

- Warren Buffett

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Tomorrow March 10 at 6:30 pm ET: How to Do Crypto Research! Join Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, as he unveils how his team of world-class analysts find new crypto opportunities.


This event is free and open to all: click here to RSVP and get the link.

Whale Reads



Whale Reads

Worthy news for aspiring whales


America's Quiet Default (CoinDesk): This a wonky technical read, but the takeaway is clear: America's sanctions against Russia are essentially a default on the U.S. dollar, comparable to Nixon taking the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971.


Investor takeaway: No one knows what will happen from here. But Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozsar is sounding similar alarms with his note on Bretton Woods III (another wonky technical read), concluding "'money' will never be the same again ... and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this."

Your Money is Growing



Your Money is Growing

Truth, in numbers


What was the effect of Nixon's decision to take America off the gold standard? The value of the dollar (versus gold) plummeted after 1971 (blue line, left side):

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In other words, it took more and more dollars to buy the same amount of gold.


Investor takeaway: If history is any guide, expect the Russian sanctions to cause big changes in the purchasing power of your dollar. (In a global economy, we're all connected).


Smart investors look for alternate ways to hold wealth -- think different currencies, different cryptos, and different asset classes. Three words: Diversify, diversify, diversify.

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Blockchain Investing Ideas

with Alexandre Lores


Hi Everyone,


The first few months of 2022 have surprised a lot of people, myself included. 


When I took on this column, I certainly didn't expect to spend this much time covering White House developments. 


However, recently the biggest Wednesday news events affecting the digital asset markets have been coming from Washington. 


If you were hoping for announcements of seismic proportions, the past 24 hours did not disappoint. 


Between yesterday afternoon and this morning, President Joe Biden made two massive announcements. These may prove to be turning points in world history, and on the other hand, they may not.


At any rate, there is no denying that the two statements coming from the White House are significant. Let's jump in. 

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Russian oil ban


In response to the continued Russian war in Ukraine, Biden announced the ban of all imports of Russian fossil fuels.


In a seemingly meaningless political response, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was banning the export, as well as the import, or certain "products" and "raw materials," according to a statement translated by Interfax Information Services Group. 


The statement, which was released yesterday, did not specify which items would be affected. 


Only a week from the State of the Union address where he promised to tackle inflation, Biden potentially delivered the most meaningful sanction of all, delivering a "blow to Putin's war machine." 


At the same time, this may also be the biggest blow to Biden's proposed plan to ease inflation. 


Similar to a head-butt in hand-to-hand combat, this one hurts a lot for both sides, which Biden acknowledged in his speech.


While the U.S. gets most of its oil imports from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, the amount it gets from Russia cannot be ignored either.


Last year, America imported roughly 8% of its oil and refined products from Russia, energy analyst Andy Lipow recently told the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. Energy Information Administration data. 


Also, while we usually think of gas (petrol) prices being affected, a deeper dive shows that 60% of the electricity that powers America's homes and office buildings comes from fossil fuels, and the largest source of this is natural gas


If you're interested in a deeper dive on the subject of supply, demand and U.S. energy inflation, I covered the matter in a recent blog.


The announcement was not a total surprise, as people have been discussing the ban of Russian fossil fuels for the past several weeks. 


I will be watching how this plays out in world markets over the coming weeks and months. 

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Crypto executive order


The next announcement came this morning, and likewise, people had been expecting it for weeks. 


Biden issued the Executive Order on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets, as well as a summarized Fact Sheet.


The executive order is not legislation, but it lays out a strategy for tackling digital currency regulation. In summary, it covered several policy aims, which the Fact Sheet described as follows:


  • "Protect U.S. Consumers, Investors, and Businesses" 
  • "Protect U.S. and Global Financial Stability and Mitigate Systemic Risk"
  • "Mitigate the Illicit Finance and National Security Risks Posed by the Illicit Use of Digital Assets"
  • "Promote U.S. Leadership in Technology and Economic Competitiveness to Reinforce U.S. Leadership in the Global Financial System"
  • "Promote Equitable Access to Safe and Affordable Financial Services"
  • "Support Technological Advances and Ensure Responsible Development and Use of Digital Assets"
  • "Explore a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)"



The immediate response from the crypto community has been positive overall, and bitcoin's price action has been rather bullish. 

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Investor's Take


Today, bitcoin climbed over $42,000, reaching an intraday around 11 a.m. EST where it had climbed roughly 10% in the space of 24 hours.


The best news about the executive order is that crypto is not being banned, and further, the U.S. government seems to understand that not only is crypto here to stay, but that it's a complex subject that needs to be handled in a diligent manner.


How will it implement the very broad concept of "responsible innovation"? Let's say I am optimistic, but also skeptical.


The bad news? The U.S. plans to move forward with exploring the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). I am no fan of CBDCs, but I am pretty certain they are here, and they are here to stay.


Analyst Jason Deane provided a fascinating deep dive on the subject here.


Sending all of you and the world my deepest hope for peace and safety.


Sincerely,

Alexandre Lores

Opportunity Analyst

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Bitcoin Market Journal is a daily newsletter that makes you a better crypto investor. It is created by Evamarie Augustine, Charles Bovaird, Mati Greenspan, John Hargrave, and Alexandre Lores.


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