Republicans have won full control of Washington, but Democrats will retain two key levers of power to shape legislative outcomes in Donald Trump’s second term.
The first is that they held Republicans to a narrow House majority, which gives the party in charge little room for defections in order to pass major legislation. That margin is slimming further as Trump plucks House members for administration jobs. The last two years showed how chaotic and dysfunctional this GOP-controlled House can be, even when the stakes are low.
Now, the stakes are high as Republicans will own the outcomes — or face the blame for paralysis. And Democrats say they intend to stay unified.
“The last two years are a good example. They also had narrow majorities. We think we’ve done a good job of stopping a lot of really bad things. And so I think we’re going have to be using that same strategy,” Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., said. “I think our leadership is going to do a great job of making sure that we’re a good check.”
The second lever for Democrats is the legislative filibuster in the Senate. Many Republican senators, including their newly elected leader, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., promise to preserve the 60-vote threshold for most legislation, even if it hinders Trump’s agenda.
While Senate rules allow the party in charge to bypass the filibuster for changes to taxes and spending, other matters will require 60 votes — including major tasks next year like funding the government, extending the debt ceiling and reauthorizing the farm bill. And Republicans will have 52 or 53 seats next year.
“If they really try to pass extreme stuff, they’re going to have a hell of a fight on their hands,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. “And here in the Senate, obviously, we continue to have a number of tools to exercise.”
On most legislation, Van Hollen said, Republicans are “going to have to come to the table” and negotiate with Democrats.
Or as Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, put it: “Neither chamber will have an overwhelming majority, and these spending bills will be a bipartisan product.”
One area where Democrats will have little power is on administration and judicial nominees, which require a simple majority to confirm.
On legislative matters, will the GOP be able to transcend party divisions and deliver? Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., the chair of the House Republican campaign arm, said Trump can help keep members on the same page.
“The difference here is with unified government, Donald Trump is setting the agenda,” he said. “I think it becomes much easier to move that agenda, even with a small majority.”
But other Republicans warn that it won’t be smooth sailing.
“The House has always been a chaotic place, will always be a chaotic place. Anyone who thinks it’s going to be smooth sailing has never spent one day walking these halls. But it’ll be on us as members to actually go out and find a way to deliver,” Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, said in an interview. “And I certainly think the members that helped bring this majority — we have more to gain, more to lose than anyone else.”
