Election watch Did someone forward you this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered weekday mornings. McKenna out: Catherine McKenna will not run for re-election. The Canadian Press has the story, including speculation that the move opens the door for Mark Carney to run in Ottawa Centre. A copy of a speech McKenna will deliver today reads: "Like many Canadians, living through COVID-19 over a very long year made me step back and reflect on what matters to me most. And it's two things: my kids and climate change."
McKenna was the environment minister, responsible for launching the Liberal's carbon pricing plan, before moving to infrastructure after the 2019 election. Let's crunch the numbers: In an in-depth number crunch in Maclean's Paul Wells lays out the bad news for the Conservatives: A new large-sample public-opinion survey that permits detailed examination of close races suggests the federal Liberals are well-positioned to make seat gains, as Justin Trudeau decides whether to call an election campaign that could begin as early as this summer. “The message from this survey for the Liberals is ‘Run, don’t walk, to the writ,’” pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group said, using Ottawa jargon for an election call. “The table is set for Liberal gains in most competitive seats outside Quebec and they would be crazy to wait a day longer than necessary.” Lyle bases his conclusion on a deeper dive than is usual for pollsters, a months-long sample of 6,360 voters, which allows him to make more precise observations than we usually get in horse-race polls. He finds many areas were the Liberals could make gains. “The Liberals are flat in their strong seats, but they are up in every combination of swing seats.” Wells puts the findings in perspective: No public-opinion survey is a prediction. Campaigns change things. It’s been commonplace in recent years for experts and columnists to wearily predict at the beginning of a campaign that nothing will change, only to be amazed by surprises once voters begin to focus on the choices. But after a year and a half of global crisis, the Liberals would look at these numbers and see more room for early optimism than in 2019. This may just be one poll, but there have been others with similarly bad news for the Conservatives. A recent poll from Ekos shows the Tories trailing the Liberals among men and seniors, electoral groups where they have traditionally been strong, and Nanos also has the Liberals well ahead. These numbers have convinced political observers, including your humble correspondent, that in their secret war councils, the Liberals are now trying to decide when, not if, they should call an election. On Friday, they named their campaign chair. Time to shuffle: In the Toronto Star, Chantal Hebert argues that whatever happens in the debate over when to have an election, the "need for a stronger cabinet team is not debatable." Hebert says that Harjit Sajjan, who has struggled to deal with rampant sexual misconduct in the armed forces, must go. "The government does need a new broom at national defence before it again faces the Commons." "One can sympathize with the plight of the embattled Sajjan and still know that he is no longer the person the situation calls for." Hebert thinks Trudeau not only needs to oust deadwood, but also needs new talent. She suggests Mark Carney, Naheed Nenshi or Don Iveson. The Liberals "would find it in their interest to spend less time showcasing Trudeau and more time on his post-pandemic team." Captain Canada Day: Erin O’Toole told the West Block on Sunday that he is the only leader standing up for Canada Day. As some communities cancel Canada Day after unmarked graves were discovered on the grounds of former residential schools in British Columbia and Saskatchewan, and others debate how to proceed, O'Toole is alone in taking a strongly pro-Canada-Day approach. “I’ve spoken about the tremendous role of Aboriginal veterans in our history who weren’t recognized at the time. We need to recognize the fact that they stepped up. So there is so much to celebrate in our country that we have to be proud to be Canadian,” O’Toole said. “Is it the fact that I’m the only one running to be prime minister that’s actually proud of our country and wants it to do better?” Mourning and sadness: Writing in Le Journal de Montréal, journalist Emmanuelle Latraverse, suggests that rather than cancelling the day, the day should be marked with a different tone. (Translation here.) The pain that Indigenous communities feel at the discovery of these abandoned graves will never be ours. It is their children, their sisters, their brothers, their uncles, their aunts who died in indignity. What we owe them is to come out of our indifference, to try to understand. Of course, canceling Canada Day helps to clear your conscience. And after? To underline July 1 in this atmosphere of mourning and sadness seems much more honest to me. A way for Canadians to finally stop wrapping themselves in the myth of "the best country in the world." Minister calls for charges: Dan Vandal, minister of northern affairs, told CTV’s Question Period that the religious leaders who operated the school system in Canada should face criminal charges: “Of course they need to be charged. This is the sort of thing you read about in another country, you don't read about this in Canada, but if people are still alive, then we need to do all things necessary to achieve justice, of course we need to bring charges forward.” Vigil for the dead: In Cowessess, where 751 unmarked graves were discovered last week, people gathered on Saturday night to honour the dead, CBC reports. Councillor Jonathan Z. Lerat said the difficult discovery will help others understand what happened there: "It's heartwarming to me because they were unknown this whole time, but now they're being acknowledged." Four Canadians missing: Canada's consul general in Miami told CTV four Canadian citizens "linked" to the condominium collapse in Florida are unaccounted for. They are among 150 still missing. The view from Florida: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis told Fox News on Sunday that if it wasn't for his leadership, the United States would be as locked down and economically depressed as Canada. "We were the leading state fighting against coronavirus lockdowns. I believe had Florida not done that, you would see the other states to have followed Canada, for example, [which] is still locked down." — Stephen Maher | 