Revenge of the Schwab | Exports, exports, exports |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for November 23rd in 3:12 minutes.

🍷 Finimized over a mulled wine at the Christmas market in Frankfurt, Germany (6°C/43°F ⛅)

⏳ Keep it brief

  • Broker Charles Schwab is reportedly in talks to buy rival TD Ameritrade
  • A key survey of Eurozone activity showed contrasting fortunes for the bloc's manufacturing and services sectors

Darth Schwab

Darth Schwab

What’s Going On Here?

Reports surfaced last week that US brokerage Charles Schwab might tempt TD Ameritrade to join its side with a $26 billion takeover bid – after having wounded its competitor beyond repair (tweet this).

What Does This Mean?

Schwab shot first by ditching commissions on its stock trading services in an effort to compete with startup Robinhood. And seeing as Schwab made just 7% of its revenue from those commissions last year, it could afford to take the hit (though its stock did fall 10%). The same couldn’t be said for TD Ameritrade, which earns over a third of its revenue from commissions. But forced to stay competitive, TD Ameritrade had no choice but to cut its commissions too – and its stock fell 25%.

Schwab’s now reportedly thinking about snapping up its wounded foe for a bargain. Schwab would benefit from the added heft: it needs scale to compete in the new, low-fee environment, and the combined entity would manage $5 trillion in assets. Meanwhile, investors in the firms’ smaller rival, E*TRADE, are trembling: its stock fell 10% on word of the deal.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Squeezed on all sides.
Both Schwab and TD Ameritrade make most of their money from “net interest income”. In other words, they get paid interest on any cash kept in your portfolio. With no trading commissions, that income will become even more important. The timing’s pretty terrible: with interest rates ultra-low, cash isn’t very profitable to brokers. But it could be worse: last week, a German bank started charging negative interest, making retail customers pay for the privilege of saving cash.

For you personally: Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Zero-commission trading will probably save you money – but just because you can trade for free doesn’t mean you should. Trading more frequently can be hazardous: more chances to make a bad decision risks your returns. Perhaps there’s something to be said for the good ol’ fashioned strategy of letting your investments be.

Why fees aren't the best way to pick a broker

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Why fees aren't the best way to pick a broker

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Exports Fan

Exports Fan

What’s Going On Here?

A key survey of eurozone activity released on Friday showed the bloc’s export-driven manufacturing sector – though still shrinking – ticked up in November. Go team!

What Does This Mean?

The promising data for the eurozone’s manufacturing sector, touch wood, raised hopes that the worst of the region’s recent industrial slump may finally be over. But the bloc still has a rival to boo off the field: services activity – which tracks other industries such as banking, communications, and retail – declined in November and is now on the verge of contraction. That’s stoked fears that the recent industrial weakness has simply spread to other parts of the economy.

It’s not exactly the trend newly appointed European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde was hoping for. In her first major speech in the role, she called on European governments to better link their countries’ services sectors with the bloc, in the hopes of making the region more dependent on domestic consumption and less on exports. And given the current state of global trade relations, that could prove a sensible strategy…

Why Should I Care?

For markets: That was close.
The uptick in the bloc’s manufacturing sector was largely driven by a slower contraction in Germany, where factory activity climbed for the second month in a row. That helped the eurozone’s largest economy narrowly avoid a technical recession in the third quarter – but it didn’t do much to silence calls for economy-boosting measures like increased government spending and reduced taxes.

Zooming out: On track for a recession?
A similar survey of the UK’s manufacturing and services activity slumped to a three-year low on Friday, as ongoing Brexit uncertainty and renewed jitters ahead of December’s snap election weighed heavily on companies. Friday’s data even led one economist to suggest the UK’s economy might decline in the fourth quarter – after already contracting in both August and September. Yikes.

How to take advantage if the UK does slip into recession

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💬 Quote of the day

“Always be a little kinder than necessary.”

– James M. Barrie (a Scottish novelist and playwright)

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🤔 Q&A RE: Rally Baba

“Will Alibaba’s shares in New York and Hong Kong trade at the same price?”

– Barbara in Idaho, USA

“They will, Barbara – in theory, at least. The stock price of a company listed on two exchanges should be about the same after accounting for currency differences. If not, the situation could be exploited by arbitrageurs – traders who buy shares on one exchange and sell them on another, and then pocket a profit from the price discrepancy. That said, the time difference between New York and Hong Kong does mean that if there’s a big price move when one exchange is open and the other is closed, prices might diverge more significantly.”

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