| | | | Wednesday, September 18, 2024 | | What's the comp for Brent Rooker? He was a decent option in his breakout 2023, hitting .246 with 30 homers, but he was a 28-year-old with very little prospect pedigree and a 33% strikeout rate, so nobody really took it seriously – he entered 2024 with an ADP in NFC Drafts of just 288.9, effectively undrafted in many leagues. | | And here he sits, with less than two weeks left in the MLB season, ranked as the No. 9 player in Rotisserie leagues – overall! In H2H points leagues, unquestionably his worst format, he's only the No. 14 player to date, just ahead of first-rounders Corbin Carroll and Freddie Freeman. We knew Rooker had power, obviously, but the overall growth in his game we've seen this season? Well, let's just say the idea of Rooker hitting over .300 wasn't really taken seriously before this season. | | Through 134 games, he's doing exactly that, hitting .302/.371/.585 with 38 homers, 10 steals, 79 runs, and 109 RBI. Rooker is basically having a Bryce Harper season, and the most surprising thing about it is … it might not even be a fluke! He's cut his strikeout rate to a more manageable 28.4% without sacrificing anything in terms of quality of contact. Quite the contrary, in fact, as Rooker has gone from a very good .472 expected wOBA on contact to a .534 mark this season, second only to Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. | | Rooker has been locked in from the very start, with an OPS of at least .857 in every month of the season save June (.725), and it's not like he's puttering across the finish line, either; his 1.043 OPS in the month of September to date is his second-best of any month this season. And the underlying numbers remain strong, as he has a .392 xwOBA over his past 100 PA and a .419 mark over his past 250 PA, compared to a season-long mark of .396. Nothing about this looks like a fluke! | | | | And yet, I'm not sure anyone is really treating it like it's real, either. In a discussion on a recent episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, Frank Stampfl, Scott White, and myself all admitted we really don't know what to do with Rooker for 2025 rankings purposes yet. At one point, Scott said he'd "probably" have Rooker in the top-20 outfielder range -- though. Notably, Rooker is not likely to be outfield eligible next season -- which is a huge improvement over where he was ranked last season and would also represent a massive discount on Rooker's 2024 production – last year, the No. 20 outfielder, Kyle Schwarber, was 80.9 in NFC ADP. | | And if you think that's not giving Rooker enough credit, consider this: In one expert's draft for a league that will be played out for 2025, Rooker was the third pick of the 10th round – in a 15-team league, that means 138 players were picked ahead of him, including at least 27 outfielders. Again, Rooker is a top-10 player in Roto this season, providing plus production at least in all five categories, including, again, 10 steals! | | I just spent several hundred words making it, but truthfully, the case for Rooker is quite self-explanatory. The burden of proof should be on those of us – yes, "us" – who are skeptical about what he's accomplished this season. So, what's the case against him, or at least the case for skepticism? | | It starts with the lack of track record. Rooker has only played at this level for one year, and it isn't that dissimilar from Luke Voit's flash-in-the-pan run with the Yankees – remember, Voit had a 905-PA stretch from 2018 through 2020, where he hit .278/.371/.541, more than 300 PA more than Rooker's 2024; combine 2023 and 2024 for Rooker, and you get a 1,092-PA sample size, but the line drops to .275/.351/.539. That would be pretty good for a 10th-round pick, so I'm actually not sure how much this argument against Rooker makes sense. | | So, it comes down to a skill set that just feels kind of fragile. Rooker's improvements from 2023 haven't come along with a significant improvement in, say, plate discipline; if anything, he's just swinging a whole lot more, with his in-zone swing rate jumping from 66.1% to 73% and his out-of-zone rate jumping from 27.3% to 30.6%. He's making more contact on both types of swings, hence the lower strikeout rate, but you would think that all those extra batted balls on pitches out of the strike zone would come at a cost, and they just haven't so far. That's kind of curious. | | But there's one more real red flag in Rooker's profile I want to highlight (though I don't necessarily think this is the reason everyone is skeptical of him). Of Rooker's 38 homers as of Tuesday, only three have come on pitches in the top-third of the strike zone or higher. How weird is that? Of the four other players with at least 38 homers this season, here's how many have come on pitches in the top third of the zone (or higher): | | Aaron Judge: 4/53Shohei Ohtani: 13/47Anthony Santander: 12/41 Juan Soto: 18/40 Brent Rooker: 3/38 | | | | Rooker has a swing geared for power, but it's a very specific kind of power. As Ben Clemens noted for FanGraphs.com earlier this season , Rooker "swings hard … and swings with a pronounced uppercut." And while you might note that Judge's similar pace is a reason to be optimistic, I do think Judge is the kind of one-of-one outlier who makes any comparison tough – Rooker is no small dude, but Judge still has three inches of height on him, and it might just be tougher for pitchers to attack the top of the zone against him when they just aren't used to having to pitch that high that often. Just 17.8% of pitches to Judge are in that zone this season, compared to 26.2% to Rooker, and Judge's wOBA on those pitches is .396, compared to Rooker's .343; still solidly above average, but it could be a hole pitchers might be able to exploit. | | But, I'll be honest: That kind of feels like reaching. There must be some reason Rooker can't keep getting away with this, and by god, we're going to find it! Rooker has poor plate discipline, but his swing decisions and whiff rate aren't much different than someone like Rafael Devers, who obviously hasn't been stopped by a free-swinging approach. | | Maybe Rooker just has more holes in his swing that haven't been exploited this season, and there is one other way in which Rooker is an outlier right now: His swing speed and swing length. These are relatively new metrics, introduced to BaseballSavant.com just this season, but one thing became pretty clear once they were introduced: The faster your swing is, the longer your swing tends to be. But Rooker is a rare exception, as he is in the 80th percentile in swing speed but only in the 29th percentile in swing length; only four other hitters are at least at those levels. Rooker swings hard, but he is relatively direct to the ball, and maybe that combination can allow him to continue to demolish baseballs the way he has? | | I'll be honest again: That one feels a bit like a reach. If you're looking for reasons to be optimistic about any player, there's no shortage of data you can find to make your case. I'm inclined to buy the skeptical case for Rooker, but I'm also starting to think I'm going to be higher than the consensus on him, too. Even baking in a ton of regression for 2025, you could rank him 75th, be higher than most, and still get a nice discount on his expected production. | | I think that's where I'm going to land. Top-20 outfielder, for sure, and possibly top-15. I may come to regret that, but if Rooker just comes in between his 2023 and 2024, here's what a 162-game pace would look like .275 average, 84 runs, 41 homers, 106 RBI, eight steals. That's pretty good! | | There's a chance the bottom falls out for the soon-to-be 30-year-old, and the Athletics' new home park in the minor-league Sacramento stadium is a big unknown and unknowable factor to consider for everyone in Oakland. But there just aren't a ton of holes to be poked in Rooker's 2024 profile, except for this one: His history didn't begin in 2024. | | | | Monday's recap | | | | News and Notes | | Steven Kwan was placed on the IL due to back discomfort, and his regular season is all but over, even if it's a minor injury. Angel Martinez has started and led off four games in a row for the Guardians and has multiple hits in three of those, making him worth a look in deeper, five-OF leagues. | | Angel Martinez | | Oneil Cruz has missed two straight due to left ankle soreness. | | Hunter Greene threw 50 pitches over a three-inning simulated game Tuesday. He could be ready to return this Sunday against the Pirates, but I'd have a hard time trusting him in his first game back from an elbow injury. But it would be nice to see him dominate one more time before the end of what has been a true breakout season. | | Bo Bichette was reinstated from the IL and in the lineup for the Blue Jays, batting second. He finished 2-5 with a RBI in his first game since July 19. Calf injuries have pretty much wrecked his season, but a hot finish could help him regain some of his lost value for 2025. | | The Giants placed Matt Chapman on the paternity list, which means he'll miss one to three days. | | Tyler Fitzgerald returned to the lineup after missing three straight with lower-back tightness. | | Colt Keith was removed Tuesday night due to a right shoulder injury. | | Jordan Westburg took batting practice on Tuesday and is on track to return for the final week of the season. | | Orioles GM Mike Elias said it's possible Grayson Rodriguez temporarily pitches out of the bullpen when he returns. He's on the IL with a right lat strain, and it will be tough to build his arm back up before the end of the season. | | Tanner Houck is on track to start Wednesday against the Rays. He was scratched from his previous start due to dead arm, and I wouldn't trust him for this one. | | Nick Lodolo will not return this season. He'll end up missing the final five weeks of the season due to a sprained finger, finishing his season with a 4.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, with 122 K over 115.1 IP, though it's worth noting he apparently was pitching through that injury for some time. | | Pete Fairbanks and Jeffrey Springs also will not return this season. Fairbanks out with a lat injury, Springs with left elbow fatigue. | | Daulton Varsho was placed on the IL with a shoulder strain. Turns out he needs surgery on his rotator cuff and will get that done as soon as possible. | | The Blue Jays placed Will Wagner on the 60-day IL with left knee inflammation. | | The Marlins haven't had much good news this season, but they got a couple bits of it Tuesday with an eye on 2025. Sandy Alcantara threw live batting practice at LoanDepot Park on Tuesday, his first time facing batters since he underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year. He should be ready for spring training and will probably belong in the top 40 of the starting pitcher rankings, especially if he looks good in Spring Training. | | Additionally, Eury Perez threw off flat ground Tuesday, his first time throwing since he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. He's probably out until at least June of next season, but will also be just 22 next season and still presumably has ace upside if he doesn't lose much due to the injury. You'll need an IL spot to stash Perez in, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was back to being a must-start pitcher by this time next year. | | Tuesday's standouts | | Cole Ragans, Royals vs. DET: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – Ragans hasn't been quite as dominant over the past couple of months as he was early in the season, especially with his command, with 23 walks allowed in 52 innings since the start of August. Still, the results have mostly been excellent, especially lately, as this was his third start of at least six innings, and no more than two runs allowed in a row. Ragans has held up well enough to a significant innings bump that I don't think there's much volume concern for 2025, at least; there might be some injury risk coming off a 60-plus inning (plus playoffs) jump, but hey, there's injury concern for every hard-throwing pitcher. I'm not sure we need to discount Ragans too much for that. | | Blake Snell, Giants @BAL: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K – Water seeks its own level. I'm not sure if I'm using that idiom right, but I feel like you know what I mean. Snell always ends up righting the ship when things go poorly, and that's exactly what he's done, with 20 strikeouts and one earned run over his past two starts after going three innings or less in two of his previous three. It's frustrating, but if you draft Snell next season, you have to know what you're getting into at this point, right? | | Luis Gil , Yankees @SEA: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – I kept waiting for the wheels to come off, and it just never really happened. Even coming back from a back injury, Gil has been exceptional in September, tossing 16 innings with just two earned runs allowed. Would we like to see him pitch deeper into games? Of course, we would! But he's probably never going to be efficient, and it's easy to see why the Yankees would be cautious with Gil, who has thrown 140 more innings than he did last season. I think Gil's control is enough of a red flag that I'm probably not going to rank him as a top-30 starting pitcher for next season, but he might just be the right-handed Blake Snell, too. | | Bryan Woo, Mariners vs. NYY: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – The thing about relying on outlier contact skills as a pitcher is, it takes an extremely long time to know when a pitcher actually has outlier contact skills. Woo has thrown over 200 innings in the majors now with a .316 expected wOBA on contact, which is an extreme outlier mark – only one other pitcher with at least 500 PA over the past two seasons is even below .320 in that category. For whatever reason, he did not have that going for him in this one, as the Yankees had seven hard-hit balls and seven batted balls with an expected batting average of at least .680 in this one. That's not to say Woo's success has been a fluke so far, but it is to say that we do need to pay extra attention to starts like these because if he loses any part of that skill, Woo's profile looks a lot less interesting moving forward. I'm still optimistic about the growth he's shown lately, so I'm mostly willing to write this one off. | | Shane Baz, Rays vs. BOS: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I'm still not quite sure what to make of Baz, but this was a very impressive start. He dominated the Red Sox with his fastball, generating 10 whiffs on 26 with it, a huge number, but the overall arsenal feels a little underwhelming. Baz's curveball has at least been a good weapon for him when it comes to generating weak contact, and the changeup looks solid as well, but he still just doesn't have the feel for his slider, which he threw just 10 times today for two whiffs. He's been pretty good as is, lowering his season ERA to 3.21 with this outing, and I think he's showing off a pretty high floor here. But we're also talking about a pitcher with real volume concerns for 2025, so I'm going to need to be able to project some more upside here in order to get excited about him. Baz likely has two starts left, and I'd like to see him show off some upside with those secondaries at some point. | | Nick Pivetta, Red Sox @TB: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – You know The Farmer and the Viper , one of Aesop's Fables? About the kind farmer who finds a viper freezing in the snow, takes pity on it, and brings it into the warmth of his coat, only for the viper to recover and bite the farmer? Nick Pivetta has been letting Fantasy players who put their faith in him down for more than half a decade at this point. He's not totally without merit, and when he's locked in, he can even be quite good, with huge start-by-start upside. But when he bites you, you can hardly get mad at him for it. It's in his nature. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians vs. MIN: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Williams largely ditched his slider in this one, going very heavy on his cutter, which generated 10 whiffs and a 44% CSW rate. If that approach proved sustainable, it could be huge for him, as Williams has struggled to find the feel for his slider all season since coming back from an elbow injury. I have my doubts, but I'll be very interested to see how he follows this one up. | | Lance Lynn, Cardinals vs. PIT: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Lynn has surrendered just two runs in 11 innings since coming back from the IL, but when you look ahead at next week, his start is scheduled for at Colorado. At Coors Field. Yikes, right? Well, I had a hunch that Lynn's fastball-heavy approach might play better than expected in Coors, and that hunch looks accurate – Lynn has a 2.36 career ERA in five starts at Coors. He might actually be a streamable option, even if it's hardly an ideal one. | | Frankie Montas, Brewers vs. PHI: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Montas has been quite solid since joining the Brewers, sporting a 3.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine starts, with 60 strikeouts to 50.2 innings of work. There's been a bit of a velocity jump in that time, as well as some minor tweaks to his pitch mix, but for the most part, he doesn't look that different from the guy who was disappointing in recent seasons, so I'm not sure what to make of that. I'm inclined to just write it off as a hot streak, but we'll see where he ends up as a free agent this offseason before I write him off entirely as just an also-ran. | | Griffin Canning, Angels vs. CHW: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K/Albert Suarez, Orioles vs. SF: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – I'm just going to group these two here to represent the promise and folly of streaming mediocre pitchers. Canning took advantage of the better matchup in a way his teammate Reid Detmers couldn't, but there really wasn't much reason to see this coming – he allowed nine runs in his previous start and hasn't been a viable Fantasy option in years if he ever was one. Suarez, on the other hand, has been excellent lately, with a 2.43 ERA in his previous seven starts. But the thing is, the underlying numbers never suggested Suarez was ever much more than mediocre, so this kind of outcome was always possible. There just aren't many reliable pitchers out there right now, which means you probably have to rely on mediocre pitchers at this point in the season. And it's largely a crapshoot whether you'll get a good result or not. That's just the nature of the game. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | We Need To Talk | UEFA Champions League is BACK for Matchday 1! Watch live matches across the CBS Sports Network, the Golazo Network, and streaming on Paramount+ today and tomorrow.
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