| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index fell 0.13% or 3.94pts to 3067.7 (day range: 3072.9 - 3055.8) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3034) and above its 50d MA (@ 2969). 63% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 67% the previous session) and 77% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 80%). On a daily basis, the index stays above its horizontal support at 2990, and has been supported by the 20-day moving average, which remains above the 50-day one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50 and lacks downward momentum. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 2990 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index rose 0.66% or 153.56pts to 23485.13 (day range: 23520.77 - 23160.99) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 23073) and above its 50d MA (@ 22631). 86% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 77% the previous session) and 86% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 81%). On the daily chart, the index is rebounding on its rising 20-day moving average, which has crossed above the 50-day one. Meanwhile the relative strength index has broken above a negative trend line, and stays above the neutrality area at 50. Therefore, as long as the index stays above 22800, expect further bounce toward 24050 and 24400 (September 2016 high) in extension. |
| Straits Times Intraday: the upside prevails. |  | Pivot: 3055.00
Our preference: long positions above 3055.00 with targets at 3085.00 & 3090.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 3055.00 look for further downside with 3040.00 & 3030.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.6 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 11.9 % | | Call | 2900.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.7 | CBUW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 10.6 % | | Put | 2850.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.9 % | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.4 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.7 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: further advance. | | Pivot: 23300
Our preference: long positions above 23300 with targets at 23600 & 23700 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 23300 look for further downside with 23150 & 23000 as targets.
Comment: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.4 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.1 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.4 | CCFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 15.2 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.6 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 14.6 % | | Put | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CCHW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.1 % | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.4 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 14.0 % | | Put | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CCHW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.1 % |
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| United Overseas Bank Intraday: key resistance at 20.79. | | Pivot: 20.79
Our preference: short positions below 20.79 with targets at 20.62 & 20.53 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 20.79 look for further upside with 20.89 & 21.00 as targets.
Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 20.79.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for United Overseas Bank |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 19.00 | 03/07/2017 | -0.3 | CBGW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW170703% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 7.0 % | | Put | 20.00 | 02/10/2017 | -0.4 | CBQW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 4.5 % | | Call | 21.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.4 | CBFW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW170703% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 6.8 % | | Call | 19.50 | 05/06/2017 | 0.5 | BZYW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW170605% | Low risk | 12.0 % | 5.7 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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